׉?4ׁB!בCט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://CGHhIXRZaEq7tbXtyKpkVMqchWR_UP6_ay2CN7DA_1s<`׉ 7cassandra://Pe_jqVqxVSnabJ6IR1GTUsTE6arrftyYQJvw_mtCKX4ͪ5`t׉ 7cassandra://uoarARbs24Ae2L2c51JO8ocLul4oZJx42jYrdAV1O3o:`׉ 7cassandra://uV5Ys7UpJ8j-kfrFJulMBzJSjzN6iBG2N3D_kx-1g68͠bd*}Fז0?H9 ט8pu׈?Uנd*|Fז0?H9i\9׉SG ׁ ׁ r׈Ed*|Fז0?H8n׉EBJuly, 2023 Volume 6, Issue 3 Author of The Irma Diaries Angela Burnett provided this photo with her article (Pages 4-8) on Hurricane Irma in the BVI. It shows the view of Diane Drayton’s family home from the road above in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane. Credit: Provided by story contributor, September, 2017. ׉ 7cassandra://uoarARbs24Ae2L2c51JO8ocLul4oZJx42jYrdAV1O3o:`d*|Fז0?H8od*|Fז0?H8nppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://rdqGA_JkbEOTNaNYtVdcr9XuvvmYHoO5woXPntBlQf4]`׉ 7cassandra://CBu1s8f4wkA5dEQYRvpG87Ay89_duJ0aZVDfGXohD8kͷY`t׉ 7cassandra://xFMAIPe7euwK5m2pOMNC15Qoi_kuuq58ChosrCNWfck5`׉ 7cassandra://_KTTXeTgHtszFQFx3vAGASJ8JUSdS0ggePJVFklGtxoJB͠bd*}Fז0?H98ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://ccwYwRaFpcRrslkWumCI6doboL0EaTh02EhLBwkJ92Y1`׉ 7cassandra://2OAvfbxZ6ms5Vt0fIGn641nwlaYoEfJvLh-yabIFp-Q̈́j`t׉ 7cassandra://1TWVYzV1thkgvzrDthFajC0ZflT34vi2G3QungtvWbY*`׉ 7cassandra://8DFn_KW1NZ3D2WCd3FMqnBOcw_ntKghS0SqDOZgjciUR͠bd*}Fז0?H99נd*}Fז0?H9#]~9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9$I@̛9׉S G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9%~9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9&$ցY9׉S G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9'G̛9׉S G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9(t̾9׉S G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9)@} 9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9*?̐ 9׉S G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9+@̣ 9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9,@̶ 9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9-AˁV 9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9.@݁9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H9/@K9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H90> 9׉SG ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H91A̤ 9׉S!G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H92@; 9׉S(G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H93A( 9׉S%G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H94?G 9׉S/G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H95?O 9׉S*G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H96@c 9׉S,G ׁ ׁ rנd*}Fז0?H97?v: 9׉S-G ׁ ׁ r׉En2 T Pages 4-8 he annual Atlantic Hurricane Season can justifiably fill us all with a sense of anxiety foreboding and dread. In that Devon Rowe, Executive Director CARICAD milieu our Ministries and Departments of Government can become more deeply insular and detached. This can be the case especially with Ministries of Finance. They often regard themselves as being “above the operational fray“ of the other Ministries. “Finance” sees itself as providing financial and material resources for others to use to achieve national objectives. It is the others that must deal with the hurricanes. I am a Former Financial Secretary and I worked in Public Finance for many years. Yes I have been there but I never did that. My perspective is that in relation to Resilience and vulnerability reduction for hurricanes, Ministries of Finance are essential and pivotal. However it is impossible for us to deal effectively with preparations for and responses to hurricanes if Ministries of Finance are only on the planning fringes and not at the core. Ministries of Finance are responsible for: • Accounting to Parliament for the use of public money • Promoting financial stability • Providing strategic advice to the Government on both economic and financial policy priorities Pages 12-13 • Advising on critical sectoral financial needs • Managing the budget process • Allocating financial resources within the public sector • Releasing funds according to schedules and exigencies • Producing consolidated public accounts • Bringing focus to national development strategies • Managing debt payments • Recommending and overseeing public investments • Aligning Economic development strategies with Public Financial Management • Influencing the allocation of financial resources by sectors • Reallocating financial resources to respond to crises and emergencies of all kinds Pages 14-17 • Planning for Scenarios that could adversely affect public finance • Providing technical assistance in expenditure controls • Developing, introducing and maintaining accountability and expenditure monitoring systems • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://xFMAIPe7euwK5m2pOMNC15Qoi_kuuq58ChosrCNWfck5`d*|Fז0?H8׉E3 • Continued from previous page The schematic is only indicative but it suggests many areas in which it is imperative that the Ministry of Finance becomes more active and involved in resilience building. The planning must be done ahead of time not after a storm impact. In CARICAD’s Model Hurricane Recovery Guide (2019 ). We stated: The vulnerability of CARICAD members states to natural hazards in general and hurricanes and tropical storms in particular, means that the planning environment across all sectors and all levels will be subject to the reality of the constant annual threat of storms and hurricanes. Additionally, there is a growing scientific consensus that Climate Change will result in stronger storms and hurricanes. In many ways, the 2017 hurricane season was unprecedented and may well be a manifestation of the forecast about stronger storms. CARICAD member states are all developing states. Many of them are Small Island Developing States. This means that resources and capacity are limited by small sizes and small populations. That backdrop makes the case that Ministries of Finance must be embraced and be more directly included in Disaster Management. CARICAD and CDEMA as strategic partners are ready to work with Ministries of Finance in member/participating states to help make our Region more Resilient and less vulnerable to storms and hurricanes. Let me commend our “little but tallawah” team at CARICAD for producing this fourth special hurricane edition of our newsletter. It is a praiseworthy achievement. You have shown that CARICAD not only talks the talk, but we also walk the walk. I am pleased to commend this special edition to the attention of all. I pray we will all survive the perils of storms and hurricanes this 2023 season. ׉ 7cassandra://1TWVYzV1thkgvzrDthFajC0ZflT34vi2G3QungtvWbY*`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://qEdvgjEye3AUzUoqmDi546ju9krneMau01wh5DrHCM0<`׉ 7cassandra://jf9m7I1P-rlKo6i5altWv5ORz3LqPsP-rQ2SEajQXKEͷ`t׉ 7cassandra://0hXB_OHLNtHNPG6oXkg4QfnVYb3U-pNvRWnBHo09Xe87K`׉ 7cassandra://ZbMiFG3A1OSRW1nQGFU8WqVumUwY5dTw4bOG3Js3fgQb*͠bd*~Fז0?H9<ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://OYbwUSCt4AiYacaOIJeJ0WAT2cF0PJdlThFlOc45Ts4W`׉ 7cassandra://3GXjdBfQ4Ysg38tF_SLZTGdnAmG5FtQa9FUps6gjc-U`t׉ 7cassandra://JZ2G4cyrVjP2K-Dbj8qNBf0QMmmzu_DWwYn4pyMu-IU6`׉ 7cassandra://JLZPeabZDFonq5Stv7KNIPzQrX4vU9WZtckIyx-ujWAy+l͠bd*~Fז0?H9=׉E 4 By Angela Burnett O n September 6, 2017, I felt a range of emotions, chief among them were fear, disbelief and anger. That day, I forcibly found myself in a select group directly hit by the most powerful hurricane in the history of the 166-year-old Atlantic hurricane season record – category 5 Hurricane Irma, packing 185 mph sustained winds. At age of 31 at the time, I had experienced everything from a category 1 to 4 hurricane more than once, including notorious hurricanes like Hugo. The Hurricane Irma experience, however, was unprecedented. Despite my personal background and close to 10 years of experience as a climate change professional, Irma was unlike anything I could have imagined or predicted. There was a palatable fear for life and for the future of the country, disbelief at the supernatural power of the storm and anger that the world had yet to wake up to the reality that climate change is fuelling stronger hurricanes and threatening lives. Angela Burnett The cover of The Irma Diaries I emerged from that experience determined to expose the world to the plight of small islands on the frontlines of climate change in very real, human terms. A month after the hurricane, I started to collect incredible survivor stories and in December 2017, The Irma Diaries was published. The Irma Diaries is not just a book but a platform to bridge personal connections to climate change to inspire global action. In addition to educating the global community, The Irma Diaries seeks to offer other islanders a vivid understanding of the sheer power and impact of Hurricane Irma as it unfortunately represents a glimpse into our collective future. Between 2017 and 2019, a total of nine (9) Caribbean countries were directly hit and devastated by three record-breaking category 5 hurricanes. How can we be more prepared? How can be build more resiliently? What are the key vulnerabilities that we should avoid? The Hurricane Irma survivors hold some of the answers! In this edition of Horizon, it is my honour to share with you one of the 25 short survivor stories included in The Irma Diaries – Gunpoint. It has always been one of the survivor stories that touched me the most. It highlights the important lesson that hurricane resilience runs much deeper than hurricane shutters, which themselves must be properly installed to stand a chance. It also demonstrates the reality that it just takes one breach to make the difference between a house that remains standing and one that crumbles in the • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://0hXB_OHLNtHNPG6oXkg4QfnVYb3U-pNvRWnBHo09Xe87K`d*|Fז0?H8׉EL5 • Continued from previous page Chapter 13 - Gunpoint Diane Drayton is a strong mother of two and a grandmother. She spent Hurricane Irma in the family home her father originally built and she later expanded to house her own family at Todman Estate, Tortola. Diane’s mother, Mrs Adeline Leonard, a darling 87-year-old, still resided at the home under Diane’s attentive care. Both in their late twenties now, her daughters Tishan and Chelsea, along with Chelsea’s adorable three-year-old son, Micah, had moved to their own places. However, the family came together at the familiar family home to ride out Irma. They were joined by a good family friend, Christine, who would have otherwise spent Irma alone. power of a category 5 hurricane. As the Press Officer for the Royal Virgin Islands Police Force I was well-informed about Irma and had been tracking the storm closely. Leaning on the side of caution, I was preparing for a direct hit despite the chance of it going slightly north. While the situation and threat were serious, it all seemed manageable up until that weekend when it was still in the region of a reasonable storm, a Category 3. The house had withstood several Category 3 and 4 hurricanes without any serious damage. I remember hearing on Monday or Tuesday that Irma had strengthened to a Category 5 with sustained winds of 175 miles per hour and then 185 miles per hour. Disbelief was the feeling. “Something must be wrong,” I thought. “That’s unreal, unheard of! Those numbers just can’t be right, something must be wrong,” I kept telling myself. “Nothing can withstand that kind of wind force!” The situation was unnerving. Sitting at the crest of a hill, fully exposed to the north side of the island, I knew that geographically the house was in a vulnerable spot. But you can’t pick up your house and move it, you can only do everything in your power to prepare and prepare we did. We had made all the plans to ensure that by Tuesday, the day before the storm, the house was squared away. I didn’t cut any corners. Our trusty handyman, Hugh, ensured that all the hurricane shutters, both in the vacant upstairs unit and in the downstairs unit where Mom and I lived, were securely in place. Apart from the fact that we lived in the downstairs unit, we had made a conscious decision to ride out the storm in that space. With our hurricane shutters in place, solid walls around us and partly sitting under a concrete roof in the back half of the unit, though naturally nervous, we felt reasonably safe. In my wildest dreams, I would never have predicted the reality that unfolded. Tuesday night found us all at Todman Estate. We secured the cars and did some last-minute preparations around the house. Already, every now and then you could hear a howling gust sweep up and over the hill, forewarning of Irma’s arrival. I remember viewing a video sent through WhatsApp of Irma pounding one of the other islands on its way to us. Irma was blowing trees across the landmass there as if they were cotton balls on toothpicks. I thought, “God has to intervene here!” Anticipating downed lines by sometime early in the morning we used the last hours of communication to reach out to friends in the outside world and request prayers. We woke up to no electricity the following morning. With the winds already picking up we decided to quickly cook some breakfast and shut off the gas lines while it was still safe enough to go outside. As the morning wore on and the storm really set in the family settled into the living room. We conversed and sang together. Unknown to us at the time, • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://JZ2G4cyrVjP2K-Dbj8qNBf0QMmmzu_DWwYn4pyMu-IU6`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://ys2E0LGRqE4emzi07BaG30aq5wC9yGKdhVzJYpPCwns^`׉ 7cassandra://hBWncx-OIaSXRgwdg0FwJAPyZpXjaYJwVtUqXvEjoPcͯX`t׉ 7cassandra://foAifeIrywhRGeGwWPQ_GRopdi0F5MwhlTDFc_k_IiQ1`׉ 7cassandra://pIzYLp51soMoYP8TOoBk5NJC_UEAZBAPbm-m96YVKWAy*͠bd*Fז0?H9@ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://LquBC-wa9g-ORN1xsx5vGkH-kU29cW1gNNoesuHJzA0W`׉ 7cassandra://lxxGM8tJO33YHFBoC4XeEMJdjuM7bsh0u3oQJaoy0LYͰQ`t׉ 7cassandra://zJl-wmROv18gZRgKsNn1EZQgkBtLjcMDKRnckLvd_HM2`׉ 7cassandra://cKv2sd9hYZTWT0KAbTZ3xEjycavKmEGn_6hwi0uXarUJ+X͠bd*Fז0?H9A׉E F6 • Continued from previous page those were our last moments in that room. The small rectangular glass strip across the top of the wooden living room entrance door allowed us to witness the first strike. It started when the big mango tree that towered over the outside deck gave way collapsing in front the entrance door. Shortly after this we heard a relentless banging coming from upstairs. Peeping out, Tishan realised that a hurricane shutter on one of the windows had come loose and decided that she could fix it. She braved the storm and went upstairs. Taking longer than expected Chelsea went to help. Thankfully they both made it back unscathed. With that fire under control it was only moments before another caught on and the fire intensified. It was now the hurricane shutter in my bedroom that came loose and started to slam against the closed glass window. We shut the bedroom door that led to the living room to isolate it. Behind the closed door we listened as the shutter beat the window without mercy, each blow sounding worse than the one before. Then there was quiet, the banging had suddenly stopped as the winds finally took the shutter away. In Chelsea’s words, “Outside was stark white. It was as if someone had hung a white sheet over the windows.” Relief and worry hit us at the same time. While safe from a shattering window for the moment, one by one our hurricane shutters seemed to be peeling off under the unnaturally intense force of Irma’s winds. It was then that we decided it was time to take Mother into the safe room that I had prepared. Strong at heart but her body now frail, walking about for her is slow. The room was at the very back of the house tucked into the hillside and was originally used by my older daughter. In preparation, I had cleared it of any unnecessary stuff and stocked it with our hurricane essentials. We made her comfortable on the bed and went back The disappeared north rooms that left the house an open sculpture. Credit: Story contributor, Diane Drayton September, 2017 (taken immediately after Irma) out between the kitchen and hallway to the safe room to keep tabs on things. Intense noises filled every space. We continued to pray. Water started pouring through under the kitchen door as if a firehose had been turned on outside. Instinctively, I attempted to keep pace mopping, but before long realised that was pointless. Pacing the hall Chelsea watched as the dark shadow beneath the closed door to the bedroom disappeared and was replaced by light. She instantly understood the meaning of this silent warning. “Oh my God!” Chelsea’s scream shattered the air above Irma’s roars. With an animal-like protective instinct Tishan yelled, “Put Micah in the room!” She immediately snatched him up and tossed him down the hall into the safe room. Thankfully, he landed on • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://foAifeIrywhRGeGwWPQ_GRopdi0F5MwhlTDFc_k_IiQ1`d*|Fז0?H8׉E 7 • Continued from previous page the bed and nestled next to his greatgranny. Christine and I scrambled behind Chelsea and Tishan into the safe room with only enough time to slam the door behind us before we heard what sounded like a massive explosion. In one fell swoop everything north of that room, including the two bedrooms and the living room, was no longer standing and the daylight previously shut out by hurricane shutters, walls and a roof poured in. The house was an open sepulchre. There was no time to take in what was happening around us, only time to save our lives. We put Mom and Micah as far back in the room as possible and immediately threw ourselves up against the doors. I held one door while Chelsea, Tishan and Christine all pressed against the other door which faces the north. With the rooms beyond it gone, the door was taking the full force of Irma’s winds. Peeping through the louvred door into the kitchen, I watched as the wind and rain joined forces to completely trash our home. Nothing remained in its place; even heavy bookshelves were hurled around like matchboxes. The two doors to the safe room (taken months after Hurricane Irma). Chelsea, Tishan and Christine pressed up against the solid wood door at the left which faces the north while Diane held the louvered door at right which offered a view into the kitchen. Credit: Kamaal Lettsome, November, 2017. Not satisfied with the havoc she wreaked in every other room in the house, Irma wrestled ruthlessly to get into our safe room. I could feel the interior Credit: Kamaal Lettsome, November 2017 (taken months after Hurricane Irma and clean-up. sheetrock wall of the room vibrating violently. I remember standing in fear that the wall would fall in and crush us. I looked across at Chelsea and she was shaking like a leaf. Somehow, she said I managed to appear calm. I think she described best how we all felt in that moment; “That level of fear is equivalent to being held at gunpoint!” Completely helpless and fearful for our lives we did the only thing that we could. We each prayed out loud, crying out to God for mercy and help. For as long as Irma raged on we kept our prayers up and we worshipped without ceasing. Then, in answer to prayer, the eye came. The winds died down and we relaxed our hold on the doors. We were in ankledeep water and knew we had to get out. We simply couldn’t stay there for round two and we didn’t know how much time we had. The girls rushed ahead to scope out an escape plan while Christine and I figured out how to get Mom out safely. We climbed over mounds of rubble that represented our lives and out the front. The vehicles could offer no help; they were pinned in by a section of roof. Tishan suggested we try to find a neighbour on the street who might just be checking on others while it was safe to do so. We each had a “to go” bag packed with important documents and that’s all we took. Again, Chelsea expressed it well; “In that moment you realise you only have two hands and so you can only take two things. It’s a reality check. You are forced to ask, ‘What are the two most important things to me?’” She took her son and her • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://zJl-wmROv18gZRgKsNn1EZQgkBtLjcMDKRnckLvd_HM2`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://vH_ivGXtPEWoBESvx78LYGfKgtFiY2IYl_qQAZ3E2JI>`׉ 7cassandra://ejtBVyQCzJM-r0F7m_MKT2nS_BHtV8MhXT1n500lsdEͩ`t׉ 7cassandra://T1HfOlZcgLpiqvtvbxWTQUgP5W_hWsmIU_G1tafkglA1`׉ 7cassandra://CVLMquIBTdyrP1TYS0Zr-MQOQtrY4z16IF6lH6TwUlw&J+͠bd*Fז0?H9Dט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://3XdlIfNbWTmMCwe5U8pKk82COgJ99p-pHdz4_YUXtR0d`׉ 7cassandra://PB--cKtRWYba_YgqEvkoH3H-kjVodxC70Zh3ElFx-qoͺ`t׉ 7cassandra://xn8yo-4WF30-2Ju36-_xzbH8Mu0zjjMG-EU59UuVXKg6Q`׉ 7cassandra://mKnk3rVr4kfHZTbsZzqUnCgAAElRVAm2NrDG13OH_jM͠bd*Fז0?H9Eנd*Fז0?H9C*̿9׉Hhttp://www.irmadiaries.comGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9G+̹9ׁHhttp://www.irmadiaries.comׁ ׁ Ј׉E 8 • Continued from previous page purse with her travel documents. Having survived the first round without a hard punch and out looking for those who might have suffered a knockout like we did, our neighbour, Earl, found us before we could even start the journey down. He cleared the way as we lifted my mother over poles, galvanize and transformers down the hill to his fortress. Looking around and seeing the other houses at least standing I remember thinking, “Is it just me?” Unfortunately, I know now that it certainly wasn’t. voice travelling from the tub in the back of the house where they were hunkered down. Credit: Kamaal Lettsome, November 2017 (taken months after Hurricane Irma and clean-up. We took them back with us. Earl’s home became our refuge. From the time of the eye until now we’ve lived there in that spare room on open welcome. If I find any humour in the events of 6th and 7th September it would be the sight of all seven of us women smartly dressed up in Earl’s very manly shorts, shirts and shoes, which were the only option for dry clothing. We made it inside in the nick of time. Earl had a spare room on the bottom floor of his two-storey building where he made us comfortable. The second round was mild in comparison. Completely exhausted from the ordeal and still in a state of shock, we quietly sat through the second half of the storm. At the same time, I was conscious of and worried about the condition of my elderly aunt who lived close by. I monitored the winds carefully waiting for the earliest opportunity to steal out and check on her. We set out as night was starting to shut in. Those were tense, long minutes. We could see that the roof was gone and all the windows blown out. We circled the house several times calling out for minutes. No answer came back. As fear was on the verge of panic a faint voice finally echoed back. “We are here.” It was her traumatised granddaughter’s My expression for Irma is “life-altering.” From now on the reference for time will be pre-Irma and postIrma. It will take a long time to really process what has happened to us. For the first time in my life, I felt like I didn’t know what to do next. The forced decisions post-Irma have been agonising. Homeless and not even able to find a habitable apartment to rent on island our entire family has no option but to migrate. Our cats, true members of the family, have been given up for adoption overseas. Valuable lessons, however, were learnt in this experience, two of which I can recount right now. Firstly, your shelter, your home, your refuge, should never be taken for granted. Secondly, you shouldn’t fill it with clutter. I now live as lightly as I can. We definitely had too much stuff. We all do. Irma came to say, “Live a little lighter on the planet.” As I rebuild my life, I will be very wary of the stuff I acquire along the way. More about The Irma Diaries and the author Angela Burnett can be found at www.irmadiaries.com ׉ 7cassandra://T1HfOlZcgLpiqvtvbxWTQUgP5W_hWsmIU_G1tafkglA1`d*|Fז0?H8׉Ey9 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) Submitted by the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) C DEMA has undertaken a significant number of training activities over the last few months. CDEMA Logistics and Relief Management Activities — Five workshops were held and 125 people were trained from the following countries. • British Virgin Islands (25 participants, virtual) • Guyana (25 participants) • Jamaica (25 participants) • Suriname (25 participants) • Saint Lucia (25 participants) CDEMA Logistics System (CLS) Training — Four workshops were held and 112 people were trained from the following countries. • CDRU (37 participants, virtual) • Antigua and Barbuda (25 participants) • Dominica (25 participants) • Saint Vincent and The Grenadines (27 participants). Emergency Logistics Equipment Training — This was led by WFP and supported by CDEMA. Five workshops were held and 85 people were trained from the following countries. • Antigua and Barbuda (18 participants) • Saint Vincent and The Grenadines (29 participants) • The Bahamas (20 participants) • Barbados (20 participants) • Dominica (18 participants) CDEMA also held its flagship regional exercise, SYNERGY on May 24th, 2023 which focused on strengthening the regional response mechanism and took a focus on the simulation of a regional response to a multi-hazard, multi-island impact. The exercise was attended by 63 participants spanning across national, regional, and international agencies and organisations. During this exercise there were four main thematic areas (breakout groups) — Regional and International • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://xn8yo-4WF30-2Ju36-_xzbH8Mu0zjjMG-EU59UuVXKg6Q`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://hC1EL4CXyI2oHSN-M7VtU_f2yt9L95spd_k9yU-9OPQԉ`׉ 7cassandra://bOrObT7DWOeOhWjswTbHTvjsIrDPIFGRAdf4YfSozos͸`t׉ 7cassandra://3wVY4wYIrVPIYzkr-whIeRWPYKD9SKcpGYAhPq2spiM6_`׉ 7cassandra://5k30pHNaAOkKad9M1BS0nE04t9aZR2QMGqlSuniFcAM`͠bd*Fז0?H9Hט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://YiZF1P_OICi1leUhKE18gTcy_bndbq3lEDMGoJJKk6s:`׉ 7cassandra://2YMND0k26FVdc4h3w_zm5PrHam6Ok_DdeW8Uu-wPBs8͌`t׉ 7cassandra://91mrXC3P2CmcyQcR653lXWl6YpR21W-lvf5tyz40ODg+`׉ 7cassandra://Du-5lWzOIhrc9z9a7Wo7LOmVAtro2THdYZYHfThKCxQ$͠bd*Fז0?H9I׉E 10 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) • Continued from previous page Coordination, Logistics and Relief, Shelter and Displaced Persons, and Civil Military, which saw the exercising of the Caribbean Regional Civil Military Coordination cell (CRCMC) and the Multinational Civil Military Coordination Cell (MNCCC). • This was followed by EXERCISE REGION RAP 2023 on May 25th. Region RAP is our emergency telecommunications exercise which is conducted annually, and which tests the emergency telecommunications infrastructure within the region. This year’s exercise simulated a chain of seismic (earthquake) events which caused the regular communication’s infrastructure in the region to fail, prompting the requirement for communication via Satellite phones, and VHF radio. This exercise was attended by all CDEMA sub-regional focal points, the National Disaster Offices in the Participating States, the Regional Security System, the regional amateur radio operators, and drone operators from the region’s private sector and national disaster offices. RECOVERY TRAINING • CDEMA, in collaboration with UNDP and the EU, provided a Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) workshop at the end of March this year which was held in Barbados. Forty participants from seven countries attended the training. These were senior level government officials from the ministries of Finance, Economic Development, Agriculture, Tourism and Infrastructure. • The CDEMA Regional Training Centre conducted the emergency deployment teams orientation webinar series from May 30th-31st, 2023. This webinar saw the orientation of 31 individuals to four of the Regional Response Mechanism deployment teams – The CARICOM Operational Support Team (COST), Rapid Needs and Assessment Team (RNAT). • The CARICOM Disaster Relief Unit (CDRU) 2023 training will take place during this year’s Exercise Tradewinds in Guyana from July 17th – 27th. This year, 34 officers from the region’s discipline forces will be training on the CDRU SOPs and operational guidelines and will be oriented to the deployment protocols of the RRM. Internally, the CDEMA CU staff undertook reorientation sessions to the Regional Response Mechanism, and the Regional Coordination Centre and its SOPs. Thus, the staff remain ready and alert for this year’s hurricane season. ׉ 7cassandra://3wVY4wYIrVPIYzkr-whIeRWPYKD9SKcpGYAhPq2spiM6_`d*|Fז0?H8׉E|11 T ranquil, calm, serene sea Beckoning, welcoming Embracing, enfolding me Azure, cobalt or aquamarine The reef merely murmurs Panoramic scene of recreation, enjoyment Nocturnal romance platform for Dalliance and denials That was yesterday A transformation is underway, today The named storm is here There is atmospheric change everywhere T oday the sea rages, Froths and foams Shrieks and sways with swells Evokes screams and provokes yells Yet brave sea birds signal They are aware yet not afraid Circling, surveying the Boats tossed like toys in a tub The boys venturing much too close Risk for them is merely a word, not a reality For young minds of curiosity A body overcharged with curiosity and energy A storm surge, surges inland To burn and scorch Winds and waves of relentless ferocity Slam against rocks and infrastructure Infrastructure crumbles, rocks remain The beach so pristine, now gone Monumental damage and destruction Despair looms for the desperate As steel gray sky kisses silver sea I gaze in awe and trepidation My frailty and insignificance An antidote to creeping arrogance A mazed at the power, the mystery of creation We anxiously pray for fishers who heeded warnings late Hoping to return safely to port And the welcoming, safe arms of loved ones Human mortality as tangible as the rain Anxiety as deep as the slamming sea The fear of loss, the hope for safety Override all other considerations, Rise to the crest of emotions The transformation aesthetically wonderful Yet we must all be careful, even fearful The transformation, a force balancing an equation By Franklyn Michael May 30th, 2023 By Franklyn Michael May 30th, 2023 ׉ 7cassandra://91mrXC3P2CmcyQcR653lXWl6YpR21W-lvf5tyz40ODg+`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://vx9beUNzEh8rAKrK80vdoMcWgw3QWUvkNYr9XbVTbfs`׉ 7cassandra://_qlJn9vK1kCgo8OKtplgCJewKOfjxD3vVj5eXEIO7jAͥ`t׉ 7cassandra://3pJ0bLFfFwRhVAyDud99f52RszQ6_dSho65n4EwGXYA7 `׉ 7cassandra://yNAlkBaz6oLCcyuRJGUvlz8ZpnkuszmTHExolc2lSuIp͠bd*Fז0?H9Kט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://UsOWg-FU3cdC8t9mGDZNqDySimEmw-iVvXtSzxxQVLwV`׉ 7cassandra://LMn5RN42TOLoAvIo9YcN2saVxMGzRm1d1MIkD5piA-Y͓b`t׉ 7cassandra://SpwD5oM4OQRi-uPA6KSCkxMsKfNMg55fSsSw_XFXvAQ18`׉ 7cassandra://Gqjww30PPHtl0h1WHcHAv9LEEwN26FVkK3q4neekexA+͠bd*Fז0?H9L׉E12 Meeting with (from left) Cabinet Secretary, Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerritt and Minister for Disaster Management at the EOC. By Cecil Shillingford F ollowing my Secondary Education at the Dominica Grammar School, I had no idea yet on a career choice. Like all school leavers at the time who could not access a university due to lack of funds, I applied for jobs to all Government and private sector entities in Dominica. All those who replied indicated that there were no vacancies at the time and of course some did not respond. Subsequently, I was informed of a Religious Radio Station which was being built south of my village which would be staffing immediately after the construction. Well, this was being in the right place at the right time since I was of the same religious faith like the owners (Baptist). I contacted the owners and was successful and was engaged immediately. I worked with the Foreign Engineers and Managers/Owners and learnt quite a lot technically and managerially. A few months later the station was completely equipped and ready for operations. Since I was still the only one engaged, I was the first to broadcast on the radio waves and did this for a few months alone. Fast forward, more staff members were engaged and the station was broadcasting religious music and programs on a full-time daily basis with me being the supervisor. In 1979, August to be exact, which was in the middle of the Hurricane Season, just about August 20, the National Hurricane Center announced a weather system in the Atlantic Ocean which was showing signs of further development and there was the possibility that it could become the fourth named storm/hurricane of the 1979 Receiving Her Royal Highness Princess Ann and British High Commissioner to Dominica before a Presentation on the Seismic Situation in Dominica 19982000. Hurricane season. Since I was responsible for the station, I had the rest of the staff closely monitor and • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://3pJ0bLFfFwRhVAyDud99f52RszQ6_dSho65n4EwGXYA7 `d*|Fז0?H8׉EV13 • Continued from previous page hurricane. broadcast the advisories coming from the National Hurricane Center as well as the local meteorological service. On its track to the islands the system became a Tropical Storm and was believed to be heading directly for Barbados. The weather system became a hurricane after a couple days and still showed signs of heading to Barbados. The country of Barbados and several other Caribbean Islands began preparing their citizens for the As the person in charge at the radio station, I prepared the station’s staff and the station for a possible impact by ensuring there was enough food and water for a couple of days, purchasing and transporting additional fuel for the generator, preparing notices for the general public and notifying the owners of the situation. By August 28th, everyone was convinced that the hurricane which was named David would slam directly into Barbados and the other islands like Dominica, St. Lucia northwards would be significantly affected. TOP LEFT: Received the Sisserou Award of Honor (SAH) 2016. ABOVE: Receiving award SAH from President of Dominica H. E Charles A. Savarin DAH. LEFT: RadioThon to raise funds for St. Vincent following the recent volcanic eruption. Cecil Peter Shillingford, MSc., IDHA, SAH, PHF, is a Dominican Disaster Risk Management & Communications Specialist. He is a recipient of the Sisserou Award of Honor (SAH 2016) Dominica’s 2nd Highest Award for service to Dominica in the area of Disaster Risk Management, using his background in Communications and Media in furtherance of Disaster Management and Volunteerism. ׉ 7cassandra://SpwD5oM4OQRi-uPA6KSCkxMsKfNMg55fSsSw_XFXvAQ18`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://8KdfWHvrXBCqjzP09gsS9r4qyaTomNs7nTBMOTz0FC0So`׉ 7cassandra://zvbNadlZsG92NApcTM5fafu4fn4O0HIN1POHZMQ8tPw͞`t׉ 7cassandra://shYSVsFZDvTDKGrfDo4m2IVnOzOVPJKmq2HlHMS88So54`׉ 7cassandra://W2faiJfdLYwszVZZKeC2HziwZoVM3bzlpsGGBSThg2U b'͠bd*Fז0?H9Oט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://z5j5OE5Vc_OHEW0BJiJ8booZGc0IpfrKy2zJRR2Gf1c`׉ 7cassandra://bARFnuCK4ALO3UfsDuJM2Iegcc0M-dPs1qySRUpIlP0ͭ=`t׉ 7cassandra://nFdsndHiTppzoDsTdvAty8L4FMab_4qsiSzlY41Jc1Q2`׉ 7cassandra://vvkKfjxZBg-9qIPrXi30aJS3uz4zR2FP3FwD9jJnpXU'4͠bd*Fז0?H9P׉E14 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) By Franklyn Michael, Supplementary Associate, CARICAD I t is safe to say that most of us are happy that technological advancements continue to bring greater comfort, convenience, speed, efficiency and effectiveness to the systems and processes that that we rely on for modern life. However, in the context of hurricane preparedness, greater reliance on technology has increased our vulnerability not only to technology but the electricity that powers technology. This means that the vast majority of us are totally dependent an uninterrupted supply of electricity for “normal” life. It is important to remember that when a storm threatens, the mains electricity supply service will most likely be turned off as a precaution to reduce the risks to life from accidental electrocution. Additionally, if there is a “direct hit” from the storm, electricity may be absent for several weeks before repairs are completed. I invite you to reflect for a moment, if we do not have mains electricity for a few days or worse, for a few weeks, then without an auxiliary supply (that the vast majority of households in the Caribbean do not have) the following appliances and devices will not work. • Household lights • Wi-Fi Router • Ceiling fans • Extractor fans • Air conditioners • Electrical stoves and ovens • Dishwashers • Microwaves • Toasters • Toaster ovens • Electrical mixers and blenders • Food processors • Juicers • Coffee makers • Refrigerators • Freezers • Washing machines • Clothes dryers • Irons • Vacuum cleaners • Plug-in air fresheners • Televisions • Plug-in radios and entertainment centres • Water pumps and sump pumps • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://shYSVsFZDvTDKGrfDo4m2IVnOzOVPJKmq2HlHMS88So54`d*|Fז0?H8׉E 15 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) • Continued from previous page Additionally, without appropriate appliances – specific devices for backup power, the ubiquitous cell phones, tablets, laptops, desktops, and smart watches will not last for more than 36 hours or so without mains power. This reality suggests to me that modern families have to take planning for electrical power interruptions more seriously. This simply arises when we accept that we really are very vulnerable in a way that our parents were not. The vulnerability is compounded by the fact that most people under the age of 50 in the Caribbean do not have much personal experience with a life without the gadgets, devices and appliances we identified before. It is fair to say that without the gamut — gadgets, devices and appliances — those younger people are lost if there is no electricity. I can hear some of you, the more mature ones saying, “Oh, Oh, we must get our own auxiliary generator just in case.” However, if you decide to do that in addition to ensuring that you can afford it up front there are some precautions that you will need to take that we will share with you. The advice is largely taken from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The most important of the advice is to seek the advice and professional assistance of a qualified electrician in every stage of the process from initial home inspection to appliance selection and purchase to installation, commissioning, operations and maintenance. SPECIFIC PRECAUTIONS FOR USING AUXILIARY GENERATORS • Do not simply attach an auxiliary generator directly to the electrical system in your home. Get a competent electrician to install a transfer switch • Never overload a generator • Ground the generator properly • Avoid installing generators in enclosed, indoor spaces. Generator exhaust can produce Carbon Monoxide gas. The gas is lethal but it is odourless and colourless. You might not know it is there until it has already started to affect you. It is highly poisonous. Get fresh air immediately and seek urgent medical attention if you think you were exposed to Carbon Monoxide gas especially if you feel dizzy, lethargic or nauseous. Make sure the generator and its location are assessed by a competent person before continued use • A generator should have at least three clear feet of space on all sides at the top for proper ventilation • Do not use the generator in wet or damp conditions without appropriate shelter, covering and protection for it • Use Ground Fault Circuit Interrupters (GFCIs) in and around unavoidably wet circumstances. Ensure that any equipment you will use in such circumstances are designed for it • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://nFdsndHiTppzoDsTdvAty8L4FMab_4qsiSzlY41Jc1Q2`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://_yQOgW7IzlZ6MV5YQT0C6W-YN3qhFK-MChGUXXUE1Bw`׉ 7cassandra://gVDANxONJiz-x7qANKhTBRGGEcmnip7WvDw9mrGX3Xc͟`t׉ 7cassandra://ia4XVzd-RZ8tmbfe1KO2YiWfuh9sY3CLyF8v8HKH1b03X`׉ 7cassandra://CyEE_zOQVtUVxkRWEUrDx6IB6DOYdSfo5xgnKTC7ru8ng&͠bd*Fז0?H9Rט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://y1th6CLLPIRtZoARQ5QFpgy73sKDTGrO18Y981m43k8^`׉ 7cassandra://u6GLaNcMFLwuBRl0t6MrjBoTtJrOTTMuJEkWRcRBVTIͨ`t׉ 7cassandra://WSfbrQ0a5GpRTfeXdgpRMuaa2KfRlFVe5VitYmlrX6s2N`׉ 7cassandra://3bfn8rTGw97okm8AlFJLGSSulZTnVyl8Ffupb8D-X7M' ͠bd*Fז0?H9S׉E16 (Photos by Cecil Shillingford) • Continued from previous page • Use only manufacturers supplied, grounded (three-pronged) cords for pugging anything into the generator • Never use extension cords that are frayed, cut or damaged in any way • Always use extension cords that a rated for the power that will be required to transfer • Turn off and do not reconnect any equipment that begins smoking or emits a strange odour when pruning off the generator • Generators can get very hot during operations and take a long time to cool down. You can burn yourself easily on contact. • Some kinds of fuel in a generator can ignite if spilled on very hot engine parts • Follow all recommended precautions when purchasing, storing and using generator fuel. Keep all stored fuel well away from all sources of heat and ignition. Do not store fuel in the main structure of your home • Some generators are very loud when operating. It can be challenging for the aged who are house-bound or babies to deal with the noise for protracted periods This means that when we are using generators, plan carefully, choose wisely and operate them cautiously. I think we should give thought to creating structured programmes that can be taught to younger people, adolescents and children to help them to develop skills for survival without electricity. Senior citizens can be used as resource people not only to help to design the • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://ia4XVzd-RZ8tmbfe1KO2YiWfuh9sY3CLyF8v8HKH1b03X`d*|Fז0?H8׉E17 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) • Continued from previous page • Cooking without an electric or gas stove – on coal pots or three stones programmes but to help to deliver the training. Our National Disaster Offices and related NGOs should collaborate to implement such an initiative. In the larger member states in particular, residents in rural areas still have useful knowledge and skills in this regard. It might even be worth our while to upscale the effort to a regional programme. Perhaps we can produce videos in certain countries and they can be shown in all countries. Similarly we can use computer aided graphics and cartoons to teach such urban survival training. I am suggesting that families and groups of relatives agree to pass on the knowledge of how to live without electricity to the youngest among them. The core of all such training would have to be survival and health, not comfort or convenience. The core elements would therefore include: • How to make temporary roof repairs without power tools • How to keep clothes dry when a hurricane threatens • Cooking on an open flame • Cooking one pot of nutritious meals • Keeping food safely without refrigeration • Storing drinking water safely • Making water safe for drinking • Washing by hand • Washing dishes and utensils with limited water • Bathing with limited water • Improvised ironing • Making fruit preserves • Which fresh fruits are the most nutritious • Which fresh vegetables and fruit crops are the most nutritious • Protein from non-traditional sources Experts have said that because of Climate Change the Caribbean could be facing stronger and more frequent storms and hurricanes in future decades. Our member states are making efforts to reduce our dependence on fossil-fuel generated electricity. However, whatever the source, disruptions in storms will remain a challenge for a long time. Dependence on electricity (from any source) will not diminish. ׉ 7cassandra://WSfbrQ0a5GpRTfeXdgpRMuaa2KfRlFVe5VitYmlrX6s2N`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://ZOfC8babUWlRUk6vujAOfoaEWzJhvlJECDTu2SFYcewT`׉ 7cassandra://xYw5J3jZ1McOztHAz3yhplTOPdW4wmsy9Gw8x-xjsXoͦ`t׉ 7cassandra://vRhN5Tq1_x6jQZQEeC9F4SqzsN3dJkiGslemrNCyJzQ1 `׉ 7cassandra://0SfKQEyDLpB8V9sf2XAwCWDG7iJzh_g-G7QuIbwbXrU͠bd*Fז0?H9Uט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://jMdIUyXrm6D-iWXxDZvvzeWzKs3Cy_3a2Q13BUXhorgt?`׉ 7cassandra://Lqo-qOMFOO1tAmRiAAJ9FdAb1Sv30Y0sqUbeowMOO8Mͪ`t׉ 7cassandra://ylSBqcuhr-Y5n4GNQqY5vpTslq-5KP9fwphJHKUryoc2`׉ 7cassandra://F7NNIX23dfsPmgYiEgdZJKSeKgM-NULIrsSzuQSnDmMtI/͠bd*Fז0?H9V׉E H18 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) By Franklyn Michael, Supplementary Associate, CARICAD T he provision of early and ideally, accurate information about tropical weather systems (Depressions, Storms and Hurricanes) is vital. It is an integral part of effective Preparedness. Weather information can save lives and help to dramatically reduce damage, destruction, disruption, delay, disorder and despair. That is of course assuming that the appropriate Preparedness and Response actions are taken at the Regional, National, Organisational, Community, Family and Individual levels. In the CARICAD member state context, whenever there is a significant weather system developing in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) issues a range of advisory information (products). The information is produced both as texts and graphics. The products are made public at specified times. The main products issued as text are: • Public Advisory • Forecast Advisory • Tropical Cyclone Discussion • Wind Speed Probability We may be less familiar with the graphics. They are: • Track Forecast Cone • Watch and Warning Graphic • Wind Speed Probability • Wind Field Graphic • Storm Surge – Watch/Warning (USA, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) The NHC makes the products public at standard times. In the case of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean area the times are 5:00 a.m., 11:00 a.m. 5:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). EDT coincides with Eastern Caribbean Time in the Northern Hemisphere summer. The NHC issues Intermediate Public Advisories at specific three-hour intervals in between the hours of the regular advisories. The NHC also issues Special Advisories if there is an unanticipated but significant change regarding a weather system. Whenever a weather system dissipates the NHC no longer issues advisories on it. However the NHC continues to issue advisories on a tropical system that moves away from the Tropics and becomes a Sub Tropical System. People who may have a deep interest or specialist weather information needs are encouraged to visit the NHC website for details of the purpose and nature of all the Advisories, both texts and graphics. However, for our general readership we provide a synopsis of the Public Advisory Text product on the next page. • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://vRhN5Tq1_x6jQZQEeC9F4SqzsN3dJkiGslemrNCyJzQ1 `d*|Fז0?H8׉E19 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) • Continued from previous page the next five days Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory The Public Advisory, as the name implies, is for the general public. It may include a Storm or Hurricane Watch or a Warning. In broad terms the Advisory focuses on: • The position of the Tropical Cyclone, stated in Latitude and Longitude • Distances from reference points e.g. Barbados, Antigua, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica • The maximum sustained winds • Current direction of travel of the system • Speed of motion of the entire system • Summary of the current coastal watches and warnings and changes to those, if any • Features of the system such as intensity, pressure • Spread of storm force winds • Forecast track for the next 72 hours. Occasionally • Anticipated hazards to land during the Watch or Warning period – including storm surge, wind, rainfall and rip current risks The Public Advisories are normally issued by the NHC using the 24-hour clock based on Universal Time Coordinated (UTC). UTC is also known as Z or Zulu time. The use of a 24-hour clock reduces the chance of confusing the time as to whether it is day or night. UTC or Z time has replaced what used to be universally known as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). The official changeover took place in 1972. This means that Eastern Caribbean time remains four hours BEHIND UTC time. This means that 2100 UTC (9:00 p.m.) is 5:00 p.m. Eastern Caribbean Time. We encourage you to become more familiar with the Public Advisories as they are issued during the hurricane season in particular especially as the NHC website will be accessible on most technology drive devices, including your cell phone. ׉ 7cassandra://ylSBqcuhr-Y5n4GNQqY5vpTslq-5KP9fwphJHKUryoc2`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://7lvFIjzFCNvFK1hGqt-ocvynkOs4YllZ71nk1CFezHg`׉ 7cassandra://oHVvUaZTHelhfjKcYHB_1S-CpWKIF3am7tAoFSjR69sͬ\`t׉ 7cassandra://V4TKiNOHRmiKU08quhJAvCdZiShj4SjkM40ho432GQY0`׉ 7cassandra://S9Le1F7RbnjQeUdTVCc6F3pMhSZ3L7njPceSP3sDZqwggR͠bd*Fז0?H9Zט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://NLnmO10V2ChtWDwMMARTbhOG5algCTtZT63U9zgsToA`׉ 7cassandra://h0DNabGdhvQ7oKhdRfR9ymjv8xXAhlJGzVoE5zQsxS0ͦ`t׉ 7cassandra://IKjyK7FdKvvh1iQ8k5aIBAXf8tw4OLcAqBQHjBIPbQc.`׉ 7cassandra://i322wHJTb67JYodAJZyi3tLvX7_ZUBB802ph23WFI_gF͠bd*Fז0?H9[נd*Fז0?H9XK 9׉Hhttps://www.climate.gov/ensoGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Yz̗9׉HGhttp://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/teleconnections/nino-regions.gifGׁ ׁ r׉E (20 By Franklyn Michael Supplementary Associate, CARICAD O ne of my most persistent memories of my days in the Disaster Management orbit is that of friends, colleagues and acquaintances at the start of each hurricane season asking me pointedly – “What’s the forecast for this year?”. They were unquestionably referring to the forecast of Atlantic hurricane activity that had been forecast by Colorado State University (CSU). Those memories have stayed with me. What has also stayed is the significance that our people continue to attach to that forecast. My perception was reinforced on June 1st of this year, (the official start of the hurricane season) when I heard just how many public officials who made remarks to bring attention to the season made reference to the forecast. I became convinced that in this 2023 edition of our Horizon Newsletter, CARICAD needs to say more about the forecast for the season. The late Dr. William (Bill) Gray formerly of Colorado State University (CSU) is widely recognised as the early pioneer of Atlantic Hurricane season forecasting. He issued the first such forecast in 1984. He continued for 30 years thereafter. He led the CSU hurricane research programme for many years. He died in 2016 at the age of 86. He had retired in 2005 but remained involved in atmospheric science as a professor emeritus until his passing. Dr. Gray had found that there was clear scientific evidence of associations between the level of hurricane activity and specific climate patterns. We must remember that climate is regarded as weather in the long-term. Dr. Gray had realised that when the weather pattern that is known as El Niño was in place, there was less hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. He realised that El Niño affected the high levels winds that could cause wind shear of weather systems in the Atlantic. NOAA explains El Niño as: SOURCE: National Hurricane Center A naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which can significantly influence weather patterns, ocean conditions, and marine fisheries worldwide. El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months. El Niño has its largest impacts during the winter. In the winter, El Niño typically brings milder weather to the northern parts of the United States and wetter conditions across the southern United States. The opposite of El Niño is La Niña, the cold phase, which also changes weather worldwide. There is also a neutral stage with neither unusually warm nor cool water in the equatorial Pacific. All three stages together are referred to as ENSO or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In the U.S., NOAA declares when an El Niño or La Niña event has begun. For El Niño conditions to form, monthly sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (Nino 3.4 region) need to warm +0.5° Celsius above normal, with the expectation that the warming will persist for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. In addition, the atmosphere must respond to the warming water by weakening the prevailing winds, known as the tradewinds and also shift patterns of tropical rainfall eastward. This ocean–atmosphere coupling impacts the position of • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://V4TKiNOHRmiKU08quhJAvCdZiShj4SjkM40ho432GQY0`d*|Fז0?H8׉E 21 • Continued from previous page the Pacific jet stream and influences weather and climate patterns globally. El Niño means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish and was first noticed in the 1600s by Spanish fishermen off the coast of South America near Peru and Ecuador. It was so named because it typically occurred around Christmas. It is an interesting fact that since 2006 the forecasting effort at CSU has been led by one of Dr. Gray’s former students. Dr. Phil Klotzbach has continued to lead tropical meteorology research since 2006. This means that 2023 is the 40th year in which the CSU has issued Atlantic Basin hurricane season forecasts. The CSU usually issues forecasts on the following dates each year — April 13, June 1, July 6 & August 3. This means that this special 2023 hurricane season edition of our Horizon Newsletter was produced by CARICAD between the June and July CSU forecasts and several weeks after the initial forecast of April 13. The matrix below presents some of the elements of the CSU’s April and June forecasts that are of general interest. 30-YEAR AVERAGE Named Storms 14.4 Named Storm days 69.4 Hurricanes 7.2 Major Hurricanes 3.2 Major Hurricane Days 7.4 Caribbean Landfall APRIL 13 55 6 2 5 49% JUNE 15 60 7 3 7 47% CHANGE - APRIL TO JUNE + 2 + 5 + 1 + 1 + 2 - 2 % The matrix makes it easy to see that the primary change between the April and June forecasts is that the CSU team predicted a more active year than in April. This brings the June forecast close to that for a normal or average year. However, the team has pointed out that there is a higher than usual level of uncertainty with the forecast because of circumstances and forces that in climatological terms are conflicting. The CSU team cites as examples the fact that although there is a high level of confidence that El Niño will be in effect in 2023, the Atlantic Ocean is expected to remain warmer than usual will probably set up pushing and pulling forces in terms of level of hurricane activity. Additionally, the weather over the African continent may be different in relation to Easterly waves in 2023. Easterly waves are regarded as one of the main origins of storms and hurricanes. Nowadays there are now many annual forecasts since Dr. Gray started in 1984. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also disseminates forecasts. The major online weather services issue them as well. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, was publicised on May 25, 2023. NOAA predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to four major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://IKjyK7FdKvvh1iQ8k5aIBAXf8tw4OLcAqBQHjBIPbQc.`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://R-fY46huKivzvaDx7W7vlBkO_Ma7HeZkfIihdqWQSrg`׉ 7cassandra://odL7p6K0ebkN0JE9oWNS_ROEMwyzBOjCz4HTHKGch-Iͣ`t׉ 7cassandra://f2NWQCu_4Yg6aDb5vwdrAViyqot22-J_GucJa9sAMVs0#`׉ 7cassandra://FZWzQ_jpW1_iz-gB73UmY_a5XONN7tBBac-2Diq3VwQ% N͠bd*Fז0?H9`ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://SD0ArePOz1FM4l8H8EDP19YvfFqkGWtbAkgQbBsyVuEf`׉ 7cassandra://WDgN5b-5qhQORLIQCwGsFwkRA0K716IA7IbuH2CuKa0ͮ3`t׉ 7cassandra://Ap3YBXSTmMown7ikpmtZhy3-O5sWk5Dtgq_3c2dRIRM3P`׉ 7cassandra://XPDvKQgkTIQLksnir-ibQggeJs9nKz_6MK8Vw8Mx1uI8&͠bd*Fז0?H9aנd*Fז0?H9]Z%e9׉HPhttps://www.noaa.gov/news/with-alpha-2020-atlantic-tropical-storm-names-go-greekGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9^99׉HPhttps://www.noaa.gov/news/with-alpha-2020-atlantic-tropical-storm-names-go-greekGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9_)9׉HPhttps://www.noaa.gov/news/with-alpha-2020-atlantic-tropical-storm-names-go-greekGׁ ׁ r׉E 22 • Continued from previous page Some of you might ask but what is the great value of forecasts anyway? You might say further that forecasts cannot stop hurricanes or identify with certainty before landfall where exactly they will strike. In the academic world the forecasts are of great value for continued research. The more accurate the forecasts become, the stronger the scientific evidence will be of causation or correlation between climate variables and the creation and behaviour of storms and hurricanes. This may mean that at some time in the future there will be great certainty about which countries or territories will be under direct threat and which will not. This will greatly reduce the number of people that may have to be evacuated (larger countries) and the services that may have to be interrupted or suspended. There could very well be potential for savings in both insurance and premiums and reinsurance costs for a region like the Caribbean. Families may not have to invest as much in consumables for preparedness. In the Disaster Management sphere, forecasts are valuable for policy, mitigation, planning, and resource management. The more accurate the forecast the greater the certainty of what will be needed in any year for both effective Disaster Preparedness and Response. The seasonal forecast is a long range forecast. In terms of the short-term forecasts, NOAA has taken a decision to station a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Barbados in 2023. The plan is for the Hunter to be in Barbados at least five days ahead of the appearance of a storm in the Caribbean. Barbados is the most easterly of Caribbean countries. In that regard, on April 22nd, 2023, the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC) quoted the Prime Minister of Barbados the Honourable Mia Mottley as saying: “We are happy… and we have been agitating for some time that we need to have the positioning of the Hurricane Hunter at an earlier point. We are at 59 degrees and I am told that there has already been a decision on the part of NOAA to be able to pre-position it that will benefit us by the additional day to two days of early warning, depending on the pace and the movement of the system,” Prime Minister Mia Mottley told a two-day conference on climate services. Let us all remember that whether the forecast is for a normal season or a below-normal season, the level of hurricane preparedness at country, community, family and individual level must be at its highest level. Remember, the probability that at least one named storm will strike somewhere in the Caribbean is virtually 50%. Just one storm can cause death, damage, destruction, disruption, delay, disorder, despair. CARICAD reminds you to be aware and prepare. Note: Seasonal forecasts are updated during the season. ׉ 7cassandra://f2NWQCu_4Yg6aDb5vwdrAViyqot22-J_GucJa9sAMVs0#`d*|Fז0?H8׉E/23 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) By Franklyn Michael, Supplementary Associate, CARICAD T he information shown below was taken from web pages of The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) • References to the Atlantic Hurricane Season pertain to the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. • A tropical storm is not designated a hurricane until it has sustained winds of 74 miles per hour (74 mph) or greater. • In the years from 1966 to 2020 there were no major hurricanes in the Atlantic in the years shown below:  1968  1972  1986  1994  2013 • The yearly averages of storms from 1930 to 2020 are:  Named storms – 12.3  Hurricanes – 6.4  Major hurricanes – 2.5 • From 1966 to 2020 there were at least four named storms in each year. • There were seven major hurricanes in 2005. That same year there was a storm that had both the lowest central pressure and the fastest intensification – Hurricane Wilma. • In 2020 the Atlantic basin had 30 named storms. Fourteen became hurricanes and six became major hurricanes of Category 3 status or higher. The previous record of 28 storms was set in 2005. The first storm was Arthur, formed on May 16. The official list of names was required by the time Wilfred appeared on September 18. The Greek alphabet was used for the remainder of the season. That was only the second time. The records date from 1851.  “Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but was slightly below average in terms of the number of major hurricanes. In 2022, 14 named storms formed, of which eight became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.” • The longest lasting hurricane on • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://Ap3YBXSTmMown7ikpmtZhy3-O5sWk5Dtgq_3c2dRIRM3P`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://SrHTDJTmqxbsfKfWa9z0scoNd50tOSmKMKdlsuzI4_Q!`׉ 7cassandra://bsX_s-gXOW-8ekjKAsqj-H1aQB21T8kdDtP4bVgzPOg͝s`t׉ 7cassandra://-IoQ8eVl8YokDbmrb7nS0R-X_e9hlMoKi2YoZ60-D4E1f`׉ 7cassandra://1b66AvVrDVT9W9r89s9LrG92rUTwALzKOU5IFILrq8M %l͠bd*Fז0?H9dט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://Ph-bNWMnK9g85OxXrgtW4KqGPA7s3gNf87SsCK_TlW8-`׉ 7cassandra://_nJMLmmSXrytyGmX2kNCtcvJcvgnbWoNRaXkUi_PaPkͱ`t׉ 7cassandra://1Bb108WwUgxzNtZquzPdiTiZvAX1C7I_Y-rS1lM0uOM1`׉ 7cassandra://kcvYJaQTqRDjnTDZQkFsiD2zW88PnlMnF5ABq6mfaAE͠bd*Fז0?H9eנd*Fז0?H9c"39׉H!http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/Gׁ ׁ r׉E724 (Photos by Cecil Shillingford) • Continued from previous page Prior to that, dates such as June 15 and November 15 were used. a worldwide basis was Hurricane John. That tropical cyclone lasted for 30 days as a typhoon in the Pacific in 1994. • The deadliest tropical cyclone remains Bhola. That storm killed more than 300,000 in Bangladesh in 1970. It became know as the Great Cyclone. • There were two occasions when there were four hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time. The occasions were August 22nd, 1893, and September 25th, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl. • Cuba and The Bahamas have both been directly hit by more that 60 hurricanes in recorded history. However, Cuba is the only Caribbean country among the top 10 list of countries hit by tropical cyclones since 1970. • The earliest recorded hurricane for the Atlantic season occurred in 1908 on March 7. The latest was Hurricane Alice in 1954. Alice appeared on December 31 and lasted until January 5, 1955. • About 85% of intense hurricanes and about 60% of smaller storms originate what are called Easterly Waves that start over Africa and move westwards over the Atlantic Ocean. • The decision to start the hurricane season on June 1 and end on November 30 was taken in 1965. • “The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor hurricane days, and 96% of the major hurricane days occurring then, (Landsea (NHC) 1993). Maximum activity occurs in early to mid September. ‘Out of season’ tropical cyclones primarily occur in May or December.” • The physics that drives wind damage in hurricanes are not the mathematically linear forces. This means that a Category 5 storm could cause up to 250 times the damage of a Category 1 hurricane of the same size. ׉ 7cassandra://-IoQ8eVl8YokDbmrb7nS0R-X_e9hlMoKi2YoZ60-D4E1f`d*|Fז0?H8׉E25 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) Researched by Franklyn Michael Supplementary Associate, CARICAD A CYCLONE, DISTURBANCE, HURRICANE “A tropical cyclone is a generic term for a lowpressure system that formed over tropical waters (25°S to 25°N) with thunderstorm activity near the center of its closed, cyclonic winds. Tropical cyclones derive their energy from vertical temperature differences, are symmetrical, and have a warm core. If it lacks a closed circulation, it is called a tropical disturbance. If it has a closed circulation but under 39 mph (34 knots, or 17 metres per second) maximum sustained surface winds, it is called a tropical depression. When winds exceed that threshold, it becomes a tropical storm and is given a name. Once winds exceed 74 mph (64 knots, 33 metres per second) it will be designated a hurricane (in the Atlantic or East Pacific Oceans) or a typhoon (in the northern West Pacific).” Tropical Disturbances -> Tropical Depressions -> Tropical Storms -> Hurricane or Typhoon. SOURCE: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration References: Holland, G.J. (1993): “Ready Reckoner” – Chapter 9, Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, WMO/TC-No. 560, Report No. TCP-31, World Meteorological Organization; Geneva, Switzerland Neumann, C.J. (1993): “Global Overview” – Chapter 1″ Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, WMO/TC-No. 560, Report No. TCP-31, World Meteorological Organization; Geneva, Switzerland UTC TIME, GMT, Z TIME “What is UTC time?”, or “what is GMT time?”, or “What is Z time?”, the answer is they are time schemes. Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) used to be Greenwich Mean Time and Zulu Time (Z). This is the time at the Prime Meridian given in hours and minutes on a 24-hour clock. Most satellite pictures will give the time code next to the time taken with a UTC, GMT, or Z, but they are the same time zone. The conversion table for local times can be found below. On most satellite pictures and radar images the time will be given. If it’s not in local time then it will usually be given as UTC, GMT, or Z time. To convert this to your local time it is necessary to subtract the appropriate number of hours for the Western Hemisphere or add the correct number of hours for the Eastern Hemisphere. And don’t forget the extra hour adjustment for Daylight Savings Time or Winter Time over Standard Time for your zone. Local Time Zone Atlantic Daylight Time (ADT) Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) Time Adjustment (hours) -3 -4 SOURCE: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration A STORM SURGE Along the coast, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane. In the past, large death tolls have resulted from the rise of the ocean associated with many of the major hurricanes that have made landfall. Hurricane Katrina (2005) is a prime example of the damage and devastation that can be caused by surge. At least 1,500 people lost their lives during Katrina and many of those deaths occurred directly, or indirectly, as a result of storm surge. Storm Surge vs. Storm Tide Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases. (Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA) Storm Surge vs. Storm Tide Factors Impacting Surge — Storm surge is produced by water being pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds moving cyclonically around the storm. The impact on surge of the low pressure associated with intense storms is minimal in comparison to the • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://1Bb108WwUgxzNtZquzPdiTiZvAX1C7I_Y-rS1lM0uOM1`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://j47dTB0Su2SKTLwXzYD8yaeE3Ll9vHlf8Bs2h6B7LOwU`׉ 7cassandra://ZdK7xTtSTKMRX0gX_pXIDaAlfJoA7n3bVwpFjTuxrU4Ͳ`t׉ 7cassandra://lXgD0RTp_gWa4dkn2yWiyaS8a5AlDJldDB7O_4xezg00`׉ 7cassandra://rL9Pls9IP1ArWoKLRhhh5y5WYW6qIFhE9wsWX3KDMaso&͠bd*Fז0?H9lט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://qiXy2UzWnBS21RImLwwtjr823cA-612AK4fmHi1kSQYX:`׉ 7cassandra://7HHuJ20ZAzwTev7Ya1TzL7AKd14Xx5Vc7w84DFYpJwQͣz`t׉ 7cassandra://s8V67GQ52HuNQjR4bY1p4YhxXKrpDivVxTTidcjb92A+}`׉ 7cassandra://xHlvxYL3cT24v8f0yLhC28Na-Blvc5Tr4PXHfkii5ZU ͠bd*Fז0?H9mנd*Fז0?H9gT9׉Hhttp://www.ncep.noaa.gov/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9hI9׉Hhttp://www.ncep.noaa.gov/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9i*9׉H>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcexit.php?outurl=http://www.fiu.eduGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9j[ H9׉H?https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcexit.php?outurl=http://www.wmo.int/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9k" H9׉H?https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcexit.php?outurl=http://www.wmo.int/Gׁ ׁ r׉E26 (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) • Continued from previous page water being forced toward the shore by the wind. SOURCE: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration One of the earliest forecasting tools was the use of atmospheric pressure. Soon, after the invention of the barometer, it was found that there were natural fluctuations in air pressure even if the barometer was kept at the same elevation. During times of stormy weather the barometric pressure would tend to be lower. During fair weather, the barometric pressure was higher. If the pressure began to lower, that was a sign of approaching inclement weather. If the pressure began to rise, that was a sign of tranquil weather. SOURCE: Meteorologist Jeff Haby THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO) As a specialised agency of the United Nations, WMO is dedicated to international cooperation and coordination on the state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the land and oceans, the weather and climate it produces, and the resulting distribution of water resources. WMO supports National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their work and in meeting their international commitments in the areas of disaster risk reduction, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustainable development. SOURCE: World Meteorological Organisation THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. The NHC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards. The NHC vision is to be America's calm, clear, and trusted voice in the eye of the storm and, with its partners, enable communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. To meet its mission, the NHC is composed of several units. The Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU) maintains a continuous watch on tropical cyclones and areas of disturbed weather within the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The HSU prepares and issues analyses and forecasts in the form of text advisories and graphical products. The HSU issues coastal tropical cyclone watches and warnings for the United States and its Caribbean territories and provides watch and warning recommendations to other World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Region IV meteorological services. The HSU also conducts an extensive outreach and education programme, training United States (U.S.) emergency managers and representatives from many other countries affected by tropical cyclones. SOURCE: National Hurricane Centre CDEMA The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) is a regional inter-governmental agency for disaster management in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). The agency was established in 1991 as CDERA (Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency) with primary responsibility for the coordination of emergency response and relief efforts to participating states that require such assistance. It transitioned to CDEMA in 2009 to fully embrace the principles and practice of Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM). CDM is an integrated and proactive approach to disaster management and seeks to reduce the risk and loss associated with natural and technological hazards and the effects of climate change to enhance regional sustainable development. All CARICOM and Non-CARICOM Member States of the Caribbean region are eligible for CDEMA membership. CDEMA presently comprises 19 Participating States (PS): Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Cayman Islands, Commonwealth of the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, Republic of Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Republic of Trinidad & Tobago, Turks & Caicos Islands and the Virgin Islands. • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://lXgD0RTp_gWa4dkn2yWiyaS8a5AlDJldDB7O_4xezg00`d*|Fז0?H8׉EX27 • Continued from previous page Since 2009, CDEMA’s mandate has expanded to position the regional disaster management body more strategically to fully take up its role as facilitator, driver, coordinator and motivating force for the promotion and engineering of CDM in all PSs. CDEMA’s functions are as follows: 1. Mobilising and coordinating disaster relief; 2. Mitigating or eliminating, as far as practicable, the immediate consequences of disasters in Participating States; 3. Providing immediate and coordinated response by means of emergency disaster relief to any affected PS; 4. Securing, coordinating and providing to interested inter-governmental and nongovernmental organisations reliable and comprehensive information on disasters affecting any PS; 5. Eencouraging – (i) the adoption of disaster loss reduction and mitigation policies and practices at the national and regional level; (ii) cooperative arrangements and mechanisms to facilitate the development of a culture of disaster loss reduction; and 6. Coordinating the establishment, enhancement and maintenance of adequate emergency disaster response capabilities among the PSs. SOURCE: The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) THE CARIBBEAN CATASTROPHIC RISK INSURANCE FACILITY (CCRIF SPC) CCRIF SPC is a segregated portfolio company, owned, operated and registered in the Caribbean. It limits the financial impact of catastrophic hurricanes, earthquakes and excess rainfall events to Caribbean and – since 2015 – Central American governments by quickly providing short-term liquidity when a parametric insurance policy is triggered. It is the world’s first regional fund utilising parametric insurance, giving member governments the unique opportunity to purchase earthquake, hurricane and excess rainfall catastrophe coverage with lowestpossible pricing. In 2007, the CCRIF was formed as the first multi-country risk pool in the world and was the first insurance instrument to successfully develop parametric policies backed by both traditional and capital markets. It was designed as a regional catastrophe fund for Caribbean governments to limit the financial impact of devastating hurricanes and earthquakes by quickly providing financial liquidity (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) when a policy is triggered. In 2014, the facility was restructured into a segregated portfolio company (SPC) to facilitate expansion into new products and geographic areas and is now named CCRIF SPC. The new structure, in which products are offered through a number of segregated portfolios, allows for total segregation of risk. In April 2015, CCRIF signed an MOU with COSEFIN — the Council of Ministers of Finance of Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic — to enable Central American countries to formally join the Facility. CCRIF SPC is registered in the Cayman Islands and operates as a virtual organisation, supported by a network of service providers covering the areas of risk management, risk modelling, captive management, reinsurance, reinsurance brokerage, asset management, technical assistance, corporate communications and information technology. CCRIF offers earthquake, tropical cyclone and excess rainfall policies to Caribbean and Central American governments. In July 2019, the Facility, in collaboration with the World Bank and the U.S. State Department, introduced coverage for the fisheries sector for two member countries – Saint Lucia and Grenada. In October 2020, CCRIF introduced coverage for electric utilities. CCRIF helps to mitigate the short-term cash flow problems small developing economies suffer after major natural disasters. CCRIF’s parametric insurance mechanism allows it to provide rapid payouts to help members finance their initial disaster response and maintain basic government functions after a catastrophic event. SOURCE: The Caribbean Catastrophic Risk Insurance Facility ׉ 7cassandra://s8V67GQ52HuNQjR4bY1p4YhxXKrpDivVxTTidcjb92A+}`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://iZ7lGzWNpBFV9a1WUsWlnDp1f87phqg16uCBhyqxgJA4;`׉ 7cassandra://4WioTS_2t6frrCbXkwh1cyG5VWBEUZRoKrVmdYDus3AͣA`t׉ 7cassandra://gM0108X1swXOIF8vyBnA1HezubO7J11I7sk-OlJ_I6o2m`׉ 7cassandra://yhn6ys_bWER4nuHV5in86KLWI_wcigTVXKS9vdP7PqwB> ͠bd*Fז0?H9pט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://dQB6_3rnvRIaYMpthPIH7SQsPZOFi0z0VTtpXZTXfWI`׉ 7cassandra://AbhYnEweNZZnrYFcjN_4KqIb24hxlBOAljqz3irJsNY5`t׉ 7cassandra://MQcrQKFwv6ERAaSbNP6YlEraqWHmh3WvMwaQS1CsO307`׉ 7cassandra://PrKiapfs3iABhMmnxoODj-TJ8F7l_R0h--B2iGFIwSgn3͠bd*Fז0?H9q׉E v28 By Franklyn Michael Supplementary Associate CARICAD L iving with the threat of storms and hurricanes and now increasingly powerful hurricanes, is an inescapable part of life in CARICAD/CDEMA member states. There is a lot that CDEMA and national governments have done, are doing and will continue to do to reduce our level of risk. However, no agency can take action at the household level. It is only the individual and the family unit that can take action under that roof. We are therefore encouraging everyone to adopt a simple mantra for the 2023 Hurricane Season. This mantra can even be taught to children. The mantra is this: We are aware We are prepared We are resilient AWARENESS Develop an understanding of your family’s level of risk. Ask you yourself questions such as: • Was our home designed with hurricane resistance in mind? • Is our home maintained well enough to keep it hurricane resistant? • Have we made the best arrangements we can afford for insurance? • Is there a risk that flood waters could cut us off or a storm surge inundate us? • Can we ride out a storm safely in the house? • Do we have babies, aged, sick or special needs people that we must plan for? • Have you reduced hazards in PREPAREDNESS There are many dimensions to being prepared for storms and hurricanes. We are quite correctly encouraged to have a Disaster Preparedness Kit. I am however concerned that a reference to a kit may cause some people to limit their thinking. It might give them the impression that they only need something like a large First Aid Kit. In fact, to be truly prepared we need water, food, tools, supplies, La Vue Hotel in Anguilla – designed and constructed with hurricane resistance in mind. The plan worked. (Photo by Frankie Michael) and around your home? • Will we need to go to a shelter if a storm threatens our country? • How and when will we evacuate if we have to? • What are our specific plans for our special needs relatives and babies? equipment, materials and medicines. Try to secure and keep personal hygiene and sanitation supplies for all ages and genders. I wrote about this aspect of Preparedness in a previous hurricane season edition of this our Horizon newsletter. In this article rather than simply present you with items for preparedness I am encouraging you once again to have and keep a Preparedness Mindset. That means you will plan for your family; you will obtain and maintain both consumables and durables that are required for survival and subsequent safety. Remember that storms and hurricanes cause: • Death • Damage • Destruction • Delay • Disorder • Despair • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://gM0108X1swXOIF8vyBnA1HezubO7J11I7sk-OlJ_I6o2m`d*|Fז0?H8׉E29 Sometimes modern, luxurious homes are destroyed in hurricanes while simple, traditional homes survive – design, methods and materials make a difference. (Photo by Frankie Michael) • Continued from previous page This means that you must think: • Safety – before, during and after a storm • Survival – before, during and after a storm • Health – before, during and after a storm • Repair – priorities if physical damage occurs to property • Stress reduction – especially during and after a storm • Comfort – when possible during and after a storm • Convenience – when possible during and after a storm RESILIENCE At CARICAD we define resilience as: “The ability to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of hazards, emergencies and crises in a timely, effective, efficient and sustainable manner with the preservation and restoration of essential structures, systems, functions and services to create capacity for transformation and future adaptation to new realities.” People have different levels of Resilience and each person can have differing levels of resilience to different hazard or event impacts. Some people cope extremely well with obvious physical risk and danger but may fall to pieces under severe emotional stress. Make an effort to understand yourself and the other members of your family in terms of Resilience. Some of them may be terrified by the sound of the winds in a storm; others may be mortified by the sight of rising flood waters close by. Resilience is a state of being. Storms and hurricanes are severe stressors that affect our state of being – full stop. The effects can impact us for years. That means that we need to have a mindset that not only will we cope well in the present by doing our best to survive and be safe but we will adapt and thrive, no matter what we have to face. We will “bounce • Continued on next page ׉ 7cassandra://MQcrQKFwv6ERAaSbNP6YlEraqWHmh3WvMwaQS1CsO307`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://bDwoDTQJ1NMOoMq2M7xVTfWuOLmHYmqSKO0uajVUc6cwB`׉ 7cassandra://11ZFjhAXVFHrcq_Ea_EP7jGZB3VJblYVZf2i0jzcGhs͢L`t׉ 7cassandra://5mMe3ILaXOAGMA0jHN3sPS1ADkLodv1ojTkbRdg19h40`׉ 7cassandra://EqyVapNJpwqaaDirOK0RepRjITJUswgLhe2GsFfAEdgv͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://pIkHGNfXJWXctbY0rUNErfE9P2kHSny75StQPKVsdhUߡ`׉ 7cassandra://3ua96klXU1PbDxQrxI_hDKJMSM4zJ58u8V0sclDoDMk͕C`t׉ 7cassandra://FdglzoH7-72d4JRJPfEymKsXPYIsPR9QW4Fgu524bJ8/`׉ 7cassandra://hhnu2uXt-idGaRbPugptzCOsMXSUbyGMBZACB36cm98^͠bd*Fז0?H9נd*Fז0?H9s]=9׉Hhttps://www.ready.gov/waterGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9t]H29׉Hhttps://www.ready.gov/foodGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9uE9׉Hhttps://www.ready.gov/shelterGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9v]O9׉Hhttps://www.ready.gov/shelterGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9w_̖9׉H#https://www.ready.gov/safety-skillsGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9x&TG9׉H\https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.htmlGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9y1{9׉H+https://www.ready.gov/disability#medicationGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9z/9׉Hhttps://www.ready.gov/foodGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9{Tj9׉Hhttps://www.ready.gov/carGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9|̐9׉H4https://www.noaa.gov/prepare-before-hurricane-seasonGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9}[*9׉H4https://www.noaa.gov/prepare-before-hurricane-seasonGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9~[=9׉H4https://www.noaa.gov/prepare-before-hurricane-seasonGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9?e9ׁHhttp://noaa.govׁ ׁ Ј׉E 30 • Continued from previous page forward” and build back better. We encourage you to internalise the Basic Disaster Kit we have reproduced below. I suggest from my own experience that in terms of survival in relation to food water and medicines that you do your best to make your family capable of surviving on what you have in hand for about a week instead of three days, if you can. BASIC DISASTER SUPPLIES To assemble your kit, store items in airtight plastic bags and put your entire disaster supplies kit in one or two easyto-carry containers such as plastic bins or a duffel bag. A basic emergency supply kit could include the following recommended items: • Water (one gallon per person per day for several days, for drinking and sanitation) Roseau in Dominica has been hit by many storms and hurricanes. (Photos by Frankie Michael) • Food (at least a several-day supply of non-perishable food) • Battery-powered or hand crank radio • Flashlight • First aid kit • Extra batteries • Whistle (to signal for help) • Dust mask (to help filter contaminated air) • Plastic sheeting and duct tape (to keep shelter in place) • Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties (for personal sanitation) • Wrench or pliers (to turn off utilities) • Manual can opener (for food) • Local maps • Cell phone with chargers and a back-up battery Additional Emergency Supplies Since Spring of 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recommended people include additional items in their kits to help prevent the spread of coronavirus or other viruses and the flu. Consider adding the following items to your emergency supply kit based on your individual needs: Masks (for everyone ages two and above), soap, hand sanitiser, disinfecting wipes to disinfect surfaces and prescription medications. About half of all Americans take a prescription medicine every day. An emergency can make it difficult for people to refill their prescription or to find an open pharmacy. Organise and protect your prescriptions, over-the-counter drugs, and vitamins to prepare for an emergency: • Non-prescription medications such as pain relievers, anti-diarrhea medication, antacids or laxatives • Prescription eyeglasses and contact lens solution • Infant formula, bottles, diapers, wipes and diaper rash cream • Pet food and extra water for your pet • Cash or traveller’s checks • Important family documents such as copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records saved electronically or in a waterproof, portable container • Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person • Complete change of clothing appropriate for • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://5mMe3ILaXOAGMA0jHN3sPS1ADkLodv1ojTkbRdg19h40`d*|Fז0?H8׉EK31 Cruise ship Pier at Heritage Quay, Antigua – a very sheltered harbour in the heart of the capital, St John’s. (Photos by Frankie Michael) • Continued from previous page your climate, including sturdy shoes • Fire extinguisher • Matches in a waterproof container • Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items • Mess kits, paper cups, plates, paper towels and plastic utensils • Paper and pencil • Books, games, puzzles or other activities for children Maintaining Your Kit After assembling your kit remember to maintain it so it’s ready when needed: • Keep canned food in a cool, dry place. • Store boxed food in tightly closed plastic or metal containers. • Replace expired items as needed. • Re-think your needs every year and update your kit as your family’s needs change. Kit Storage Locations Since you do not know where you will be when an emergency occurs, prepare supplies for home, work and cars. • Home: Keep this kit in a designated place and have it ready in case you have to leave your home quickly. Make sure all family members know where the kit is kept. Luxury yachts usually stay further south in the Caribbean during peak hurricane season. • Work: Be prepared to shelter at work for at least 24 hours. Your work kit should include food, water and other necessities like medicines, as well as comfortable walking shoes, stored in a “grab and go” case. • Car: In case you are stranded, keep a kit of emergency supplies in your car. SOURCE FOR BASIC SUPPLIES: Prepare Before Hurricane Season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov) ׉ 7cassandra://FdglzoH7-72d4JRJPfEymKsXPYIsPR9QW4Fgu524bJ8/`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://mMk6NACi1v9AVnLjtvO2C3AbSA24yqJzx8k71EfxDZQOM`׉ 7cassandra://HrGB3fB9IVPxPzgj9tlPhn9ctIUhjXRcyH35I6ii8yAͥ`t׉ 7cassandra://D4sN9OSpzNFoeQ_JYZWrxUNPcwF4LMm5tw3OJkBolCc-{`׉ 7cassandra://66vbyg4Ni3NEuYlumjoex1GeHlrBct-RGFVW-w8hZRA ͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://blZOjWrPLIgag7alX_nDfAYnI8A__atHIHRKm6Btdsk `׉ 7cassandra://Zae5i7LydH7PG-h8pyVtMufAKeekfCYzLjFbgk_n8TU͖B`t׉ 7cassandra://a0o6nAGbY32QtfaQl0ehCP1DhtBFflPzHA5F0qEbFDQ+`׉ 7cassandra://Kge2odzjILxS5thwjVzMzzfzoCgJlydVyWE2Aozdchk9$͠bd*Fז0?H9נd*Fז0?H9A9׉H#http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtmlGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H93K9׉H#http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtmlGׁ ׁ r׉E T32 ATLANTIC REGION STORM T he World Meteorological Organization (WMO) maintains lists of hurricanes for each of the tropical cyclone prone areas of the world. The Atlantic area also includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. This action is in keeping with a convention that was agreed to in 1950 to formally name Atlantic hurricanes. A list was originally kept by the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in the USA. The responsibility passed to the WMO in 1953. The storms and hurricanes are referred to as Tropical Cyclones. The National Hurricane Center (RSMC Miami, FL), is responsible for the Atlantic basin west of 30°W. If a disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm the Center will give the storm a name. In 1953, the United States abandoned a confusing two-year-old plan to name storms by a phonetic alphabet (Alpha, Brovo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, etc.). That year, the weather services began using female names for storms. The practice of naming hurricanes solely after women came to an end in 1978 when men’s and women’s names were included in the Eastern North Pacific storm lists. In 1979, male and female names were included in lists for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The list of names comprises 21 alternating names of men and women. The names of men were not included until 1979. A separate set is used each year beginning with the first name in the set. The list is re-cycled in the sixth year. This means that for example, a list used in 2019 is re-cycled in 2025. The names used in 2022 will be used in 2028 with any required changes. In terms of required changes, the names of hurricanes which prove deadly (loss of life) or costly in terms of damage are retired so they will not be confused with any subsequent storms that could carry the same names. It is also considered as gesture of human sensitivity. Whenever there was a need for more than 21 names in a season, the Greek alphabet was used. In cases in which storms occur in December they are given names from the list for the current season. On the other hand, storms which occur very early in the calendar year are given names from the next season’s list. The letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z are not included because of the scarcity of names beginning with those letters. If over 21 named tropical cyclones occur in a year, the Greek alphabet was used following the “W” name. However in 2022 a supplementary of names will be used and not the Greek alphabet. For several hundred years, many hurricanes in the West Indies were named after the particular saint’s day on which the hurricane occurred. Ivan R. Tannehill describes in his book Hurricanes the major tropical storms of recorded history and mentions many hurricanes named after saints. For example, there was “Hurricane Santa Ana” which struck Puerto Rico with exceptional violence on July 26, 1825, and “San Felipe” (the first) and “San Felipe” (the second) which hit Puerto Rico on September 13 in both 1876 and 1928. • Continues on next page NAMES FOR 2023 Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney ׉ 7cassandra://D4sN9OSpzNFoeQ_JYZWrxUNPcwF4LMm5tw3OJkBolCc-{`d*|Fז0?H8׉E 33 • Continued from previous page The first known meteorologist to assign names to tropical cyclones was Clement Wragge, an Australian meteorologist. Before the end of the 19th Century, he began by using letters of the Greek alphabet, then from Greek and Roman mythology and progressed to the use of feminine names. Experience shows that the use of short, distinctive given names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and less subject to error than the older more cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods. These advantages are especially important in exchanging detailed storm information between hundreds of widely scattered stations, airports, coastal bases, and ships at sea. The use of easily remembered names greatly reduces confusion when two or more tropical storms occur at the same time. For example, one hurricane can be moving slowly westward in the Gulf of Mexico, while at exactly the same time another hurricane can be moving rapidly northward along the 2024 Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Francine Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Milton Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sara Tony Valerie William 2025 Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy Atlantic coast. In the past, confusion and false rumours have arisen when storm advisories broadcast from one radio station were mistaken for warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away. The name lists have an international flavour because hurricanes affect other nations and are tracked by the public and weather services of countries other than the United States. Names for these lists agreed upon by the nations involved during international meetings of the World Meteorological Organization. The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it. This is the list of primary Atlantic Hurricane names for 2024-2028: 2026 Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred 2027 Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Imani Julian Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda 2028 Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Farrah Gaston Hermine Idris Julia Karl Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter ׉ 7cassandra://a0o6nAGbY32QtfaQl0ehCP1DhtBFflPzHA5F0qEbFDQ+`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://RfzdV1REWF6Hi8_bQVftf0_UgBdysG1MW00XC7d-OdQg`׉ 7cassandra://SmStQ4XkRZvXT_xItSXCP7Tj4e9AplnQJJHbrBZtT4I͡`t׉ 7cassandra://KOBeirup6Zy2ZGGZulgMi4gDKYLQHoxrkW24kBlmvCY/^`׉ 7cassandra://JkZqR7TLqQQa0aR4X7yW6_HGRGjdWO4EYBu8q2-r_Cg͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://ZAkQHTWVQXsvbxK2afhC_CiUpXK858ANjEfgyIjqTtoR`׉ 7cassandra://6Ng0KdGgJOM296rbvm7pndIoJSU9pC_MrIrVf5NdsgI͘`t׉ 7cassandra://tBGRBtZXgDYxAwJZV0WiGflq4Coc3ibDsCVTz9Vlz_k/`׉ 7cassandra://FqOKqzDpXRcGLHmJOxKE_wv2cvazB-fQai8jCxkwBR42wp͠bd*Fז0?H9נd*Fז0?H96̕9׉H5https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IERS_Reference_MeridianGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9*U9׉H5https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IERS_Reference_MeridianGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9@ ̼9׉H8https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_meridian_(Greenwich)Gׁ ׁ r׉E 34 A globally accepted system that uses latitude and longitude coordinates allows us to locate any place on the earth’s surface. Latitude measures locations on the globe that are north and south of the Equator. The measurements are stated in degrees, minutes and seconds. The highest numerical readings for latitude are ninety degrees north (90°N) and ninety degrees South (90°S). The Equator is zero degrees (0°). The Equator divides maps of the earth into Northern and Southern hemispheres. When lines of latitude are shown on a map, a globe or graphic of the earth they are displayed as parallel with the Equator and are equidistant. One degree of latitude is equivalent to 70 miles. Longitude measures locations east and west of the Prime Meridian. In 1884 it was agreed that the Prime Meridian identified a location in Greenwich, London, England. You should note that the most widely used meridian in more modern times is the IERS Reference Meridian. The International Reference Meridian (IERS) was devised from the Greenwich Meridian but it is slightly different. The difference between both is because of variations between astronomical and geodetic coordinates. Those differences are important in this age of satellite imagery. Lines of longitude are also stated in degrees, minutes and seconds. Longitude is measured in degrees that extend both east and west of the Prime Meridian to a maximum of one hundred and eighty degrees east and west (180°E or °W). The International Date line is at 180 degrees. The Prime Meridian is zero (0°) degrees. It divides maps of the world into the Eastern and the Western hemisphere. On a map, the lines of longitude meet at the North and South Poles. At the Equator one degree of longitude is equivalent to about 70 miles but only at the Equator. That distance becomes smaller and smaller until the longitude lines meet at the Poles on a map or a globe. Lines of longitude are known as meridians and not parallels. It is the intersection of the values for latitude and longitude that give a unique position for a specific location. The locations of storms or hurricanes are given in terms of latitude or longitude for the centre of the system, e.g. 17 degrees North and 60 degrees West. (17°N 60° W). That information makes it possible to track the movement of the system on a map or follow it on technology-created schematics. When you know the location of your country (a CARICAD member state for example) in latitude and longitude you can get the earliest indication of the proximity of your country to likely effects from the storm. Additionally, you will get a clearer picture by examining the predicted, projected path of the system as given in weather reports. Remember that the centre of the hurricane could be anywhere in the “cone of uncertainty’ and there is about a thirty per cent chance that the system will also travel outside the cone. You must be mindful that a hurricane can be hundreds of miles across and hurricane conditions might extend for a hundred miles or more from the centre. • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://KOBeirup6Zy2ZGGZulgMi4gDKYLQHoxrkW24kBlmvCY/^`d*|Fז0?H8׉E35 • Continued from previous page on a screen of an appliance or a device when following or tracking a weather system. We have prepared the table below for your information and convenience. It shows the latitude and longitude of all CARICAD member states. Remember that the precise location within a multiisland state for a particular island in that state could be slightly different from the figures shown. Further, in geographically large member states such as Guyana, Suriname and Belize the values will be different for different locations within the country. The cardinal points of the compass (north, south, east, and west), and the intercardinal points (north-east, north-west, south-east, southwest) allow us to create reference points for tracking weather systems. It is still very useful to refer to Hurricane Tracking Maps or to understand the East/ West and North/South locations of Caribbean countries and territories when you see the countries COUNTRY/TERRITORY Anguilla Antigua & Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Belize British Virgin Islands Dominica Grenada Guyana Jamaica Montserrat St. Kitts & Nevis Saint Lucia St. Vincent & the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos Islands 18 17 25 13 17 18 15 12 04 18 16 17 13 12 3. 10 21 The direction of travel of weather systems, storms and hurricanes may also be given in degrees in addition to North, East, West, South-South-West, North-West or North-North-West. In the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. The systems usually arise off the coast of Africa and travel westward. There are some forces that promote a northward turn in the northern hemisphere. However, not every system curves. That is why in terms of degrees we usually hear from about two hundred and degrees ( 240°) ranging around to 340° degrees . It is really interesting to note that in 1999 Hurricane Lenny travelled from West to East. • Continues on next page LATITUDE IN DEGREES NORTH LONGITUDE IN DEGREES WEST 63 61 77 59 88 64 61 61 58 77 62 62 60 61 56 61 71 ׉ 7cassandra://tBGRBtZXgDYxAwJZV0WiGflq4Coc3ibDsCVTz9Vlz_k/`d*|Fז0?H8Ád*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://Jz7DtQItDA9XaWQr-YPibwy1U8lGOoAnL-moX7K5e2U`׉ 7cassandra://suuCEIY8qD5TEB5Cyjce5KTTSanoBxECHgn_mnNo7b8͞'`t׉ 7cassandra://GKuKdGVtWoUdE-oG77Qw2nFdcvJt8JGAGz-_24GNBjY1R`׉ 7cassandra://0VVja4Uh7PkpW9xIfIDU_vhfG5MHoPVWnenpe-HHljg͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://edvhnaHRE96bCY7ZT4x2Er7oTLE5l7B-H0uWCDkDZIg`׉ 7cassandra://JLiW22KCG3Q1lnjg-ar--qb6HCVxmwQicokJDZJgIMcͬA`t׉ 7cassandra://SZq4aUc1f_pvOpmwpBztaz19gwmULT5X8QuAt5FdLXw/[`׉ 7cassandra://Hr7PYxggMB2UtifmprHZXBnR5B23lR7m6hR77LNRrF84]v͠bd*Fז0?H9נd*Fז0?H9w̔ 9ׁHhttp://Shutterstock.comׁ ׁ Јנd*Fז0?H9̅ 9ׁHhttps://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/ׁ ׁ Ј׉E36 Source: https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/ imagery/interactive-maps/the-world-real-time • Continued from previous page Note on the compass face above, due (exactly) East is ninety degrees (90°). Due South is one hundred and eighty degrees (180°). Due South is two hundred and seventy degrees (270°). Due north is zero degrees (0°). Note that The Bahamas is the most northerly CARICAD member state, Suriname is the most southerly, Barbados is the most easterly and Belize is the most westerly. Belize and Jamaica both straddle 17°N. Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines are about on the same line in terms of East to West location. In earlier years there was a tradition of identifying a ‘Hurricane Belt’ in the Atlantic Basin. It encompassed the northern part of the Caribbean Sea as well as the Gulf of Mexico. It also included Florida and the Florida Keys. There is now a disinclination to consider the Hurricane Belt as having statistical certitude in the Caribbean context. It used to be said that Grenada was outside the Hurricane Belt but that kind of thinking started to change when Grenada was devastated by a major hurricane (Ivan) in 2004. It is worth remembering that in 1955 Hurricane Janet, a category five hurricane, caused widespread damage and several deaths in Barbados and the Grenadines. The Grenadines were considered to be outside the zone of greatest threat. Source: Shutterstock.com There is a simple way to orient yourself on the ground at home. When you face East (where the sun rises) North is on your left and South is on your right. When you face West (where the sun sets) North is on your right and South is on your left. In the old days of physical (printed) maps by convention the top of a map was usually North. Nowadays technology-driven Apps, GPS receivers and cell phones make finding your bearings a lot easier. However, remember that devices that rely on batteries for power will not work if the batteries do not work or if there is no back-up system. ׉ 7cassandra://GKuKdGVtWoUdE-oG77Qw2nFdcvJt8JGAGz-_24GNBjY1R`d*|Fז0?H8׉E^37 by Franklyn Michael T he principal difference in the categorisation of a Hurricane over a Tropical Storm is the sustained wind speed. A storm has sustained wind speeds that are between 39 and 73 miles per hour (mph). Hurricanes have wind speeds that may range from 74 miles per hour to more than 160 mph. Both systems can have wind gusts that are higher than the sustained winds. In general terms, winds are not the storm/hurricane-generated hazard that cause the greatest fatalities. However, the winds do cause fatalities and extensive damage. It is useful to think of the effects of hurricane winds in two distinct but related categories, direct and indirect effects. Let us consider the effects of hurricane winds. DIRECT EFFECTS OF WIND DAMAGE Hurricane winds can do extensive damage by the sheer physical force of the winds. This happens when trees are uprooted, electrical poles toppled and perimetre fences flattened. The direct effects of wind damage can amount to millions of dollars in each event. In 2017 some of my colleagues and friends in the British Virgin Islands (BVI) described scenes like the following: • Yachts removed from marinas and deposited in main roads • Cars were lifted unto porches • Roofs were deposited in neighbouring front yards • Washers and dryers were removed from verandas and put into the streets • Windows were shattered by the force of the wind alone • Cutlery from one apartment was blown into another In 2004 in Grenada there was a famous story about a house that had “crossed the road” in a coastal village during Hurricane Ivan. Hurricane winds can also damage buildings directly because of the force of pressure differentials. The pressure exerted by the wind one side of a building or on the roof might be greater than on another side or part of the building. In a major hurricane that difference can be so great that in a manner of speaking the building virtually explodes. Buildings that have roof coverings made of materials other than concrete or have a very low pitch (angle) are particularly susceptible to this form of damage. The changes in force and pressure can be particularly marked if the eye of the storm passes over or near a particular location. In Hurricane Hugo in Montserrat in 1989, I can recall that my ears “popped” near the time of the passage of the eye of the storm because of pressure differentials. INDIRECT EFFECTS OF WIND DAMAGE There are indirect effects of hurricanes that can be thought of as a both a companion to and largely a consequence of the direct effects. The force of the wind can topple huge trees. When those trees fall if they fall on a house or vehicle great damage may result. Sadly, there have been cases where people have been killed when trees fell on houses. One of the most dramatic features of a major hurricane is the nature and extent of flying debris. Debris driven by hurricane force winds can do extensive damage. Portions of roofs, tree branches, garbage cans, outdoor furniture and construction debris can become truly lethal missiles on the winds of a major hurricane. One of the ways in which major hurricanes create indirect damage is through the impact of “horizontal rain”. If you have not experienced it, you might find it hard to believe. The force of the winds is enough to the send the rain forward parallel with the ground at building level. Most buildings especially houses are designed for normal rain that falls vertically; horizontal rain can cause extensive interior flooding. I attempted to capture the experience poetically in the poem, “Facing the Force” that we published in the 2021 edition. • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://SZq4aUc1f_pvOpmwpBztaz19gwmULT5X8QuAt5FdLXw/[`d*|Fז0?H8Łd*|Fז0?H8āppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://mL1T9oqVGq7yX00Mk7Hj0yeKgxwaC7WKKiY1YfPgim0`׉ 7cassandra://1-qeDfXwtIeUff7ZTm5YmJW0IGtoEglWV2Xkfxo2OJQm`t׉ 7cassandra://o5HaAIpynuAvPzhDsx9PGM9rY76gbDSQEc775teNxr0$`׉ 7cassandra://Q2WsAX2ZyEOBRmR4sMo8WaMngaXmIUKbopJ7XS4hijQo[ ͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://8A-YhKGzGtwbrYc3zLiLsQWQi07GPji4Cc_xb57eABM`׉ 7cassandra://zYLu8RlVK4ydMpb8UrQs-bJ3WzWgSHQoecxJAMhuwzw͎6`t׉ 7cassandra://3QjQl6ML76wFr9mJRCuCpd7R1ddepoAdkstdIcnDub8*`׉ 7cassandra://dlTYFt2zlvHn9Zh-TstN3m8Uo74chdS66mQXF2-uwaQ͠bd*Fז0?H9נd*Fז0?H9y̖9׉H#https://www.weather.gov/mfl/katrinaGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H930̛9׉H#https://www.weather.gov/mfl/francesGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9<̔9׉H"https://www.weather.gov/mfl/jeanneGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9<̀9׉H)https://www.weather.gov/mfl/hurricaneirmaGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9 59׉H&https://www.weather.gov/mfl/okeechobeeGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99׉H&https://www.weather.gov/mfl/okeechobeeGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9̏9׉H!https://www.weather.gov/mfl/donnaGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9̙9׉H"https://www.weather.gov/mfl/andrewGׁ ׁ r׉E38 Source: Unattributed • Continued from previous page CREATING RESILIENCE TO HURRICANE WINDS It is important that we accept hurricanes as a part of the reality of Caribbean life that requires human behavioural change to promote higher levels of resilience. Experts in some quarters are predicting that hurricanes might become more powerful in the years ahead. Should that forecast prove to be accurate then we must bear the following in mind: in hurricanes, the wind force increases exponential. This means that in a hurricane, that is 25 mph stronger, the force of the winds will be 73% greater. • Countries should have cohesive policies for Disaster Risk Reduction in relation to all hazards particularly land zoning and physical planning • All our member states should work to create or revise their building codes and ensure that the appropriate resistance requirements for wind damage are included along with provisions for all major hazards • Rigorous standards should be introduced and maintained for construction materials to promote resistance to all hurricane hazards. The standards should be backed up with relevant, modernised, laws and regulations • The training that is formally provided in construction methods should be standardised to ensure the acquisition of skills and techniques related to hazards • The mechanisms that are used for building inspection should be vigorously implemented in all sectors • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://o5HaAIpynuAvPzhDsx9PGM9rY76gbDSQEc775teNxr0$`d*|Fז0?H8׉E 39 CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed framed homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. Irene of 1999, Katrina of 2005, and several others were Category One hurricanes at landfall in South Florida. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed framed homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Frances of 2004 was a Category Two when it hit just north of Palm Beach County, along with at least 10 other hurricanes which have struck South Florida since 1894. CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr). Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017. CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr). Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The 1888, 1900, 1919, 1926 Great Miami, 1928 Lake Okeechobee/Palm Beach, 1947, Donna of 1960 made landfall in South Florida as Category Four hurricanes. CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher). Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The Keys Hurricane of 1935 and Andrew of 1992 made landfall in South Florida as Category Five hurricanes. ׉ 7cassandra://3QjQl6ML76wFr9mJRCuCpd7R1ddepoAdkstdIcnDub8*`d*|Fז0?H8ρd*|Fז0?H8΁ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://uQlAv9pwoohWHBu76E2Ko-K-5yNKtZFHXZQxP4TWPww\:`׉ 7cassandra://wojEu-VIrDa6NGBrPXMGBPHmskEFGpmMyy6tj3_otLwz `t׉ 7cassandra://9ROTfOOQnNJSd2SUgsJSIESNzd1eD9ATFZdPIrT0xSA&`׉ 7cassandra://j2DE1IeKynkp8TjVH9WrQwtNSPbc1ZNtO5nvL7Uy3bIp,͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://c11b8JNKRQ04sl58CGP--k9NfujX4QpNpdXJG2RIFd8;`׉ 7cassandra://me7-SMHtOFQZjef62QfcWvCMech4q2NJtRpQQHlkcg4͑`t׉ 7cassandra://nqLVGHfARd9Qa9mRzY0HaApdHCDoWzc7L_psdk2oG6M*`׉ 7cassandra://cSB0A1U2YId0WY5WsSFMccnS2QvSdkQXHcnN9JqxfZI8͠bd*Fז0?H9׉E40 ׉ 7cassandra://9ROTfOOQnNJSd2SUgsJSIESNzd1eD9ATFZdPIrT0xSA&`d*|Fז0?H8׉E 41 By Franklyn Michael I have found that one of the most challenging of the issues in helping to prepare communities for the effects of hurricanes is that there is a tendency to focus on the characteristics and features of the storms themselves and not on the effects. In that regard I have developed the concept of the Seven Ds (7Ds) of Disaster and applied it to hurricanes, a major hazard, but it is also applicable to others that coastline. It appears that our member states are becoming increasingly proficient at saving lives during hurricanes. DAMAGE Hurricanes cause extensive damage. The damage occurs across all sectors in the natural and built environments. All economic sectors, the public, social and community sectors can suffer damage. The damage can result from a combination of strong winds, heavy rains and floods. Secondary damage may occur from exposure to the elements after the initial hurricane impact. The list of areas where damage occurs is as broad as human everyday living experience. • Coastlines, beaches and reefs • Forests and vegetation • Houses • Commercial buildings • Schools • Office complexes • Airports and ports • Roads • Bridges • Boats — commercial • Vehicles • Personal effects can create disasters. The graphic below displays the concept: DEATH The graphic starts with DEATH. Hurricanes have been responsible for deaths. It must be stated that most of the deaths caused by hurricanes happen because of inland flooding and storm surge at the DESTRUCTION It is important to recall that anything that can be damaged by a hurricane can also be destroyed by a hurricane, if the forces are strong enough. One of the greatest challenges in Recovery management after a hurricane is the challenge of replacing what has been totally lost or otherwise destroyed. This is particularly important in relation to critical facilities such as hospitals and airports. It is also pivotal in social recovery if many houses, tertiary institutions and schools are destroyed in a hurricane event. It is important to appreciate that the mere existence of a hazard does not automatically or immediately result in a disaster. There tends to be a progression from the appearance of a hazard to the negative effects that may culminate in an emergency, a crisis • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://nqLVGHfARd9Qa9mRzY0HaApdHCDoWzc7L_psdk2oG6M*`d*|Fז0?H8сd*|Fז0?H8ЁppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://2BE3EGNRAqq0Ty4dfYib8bUJivKCOnJ9JaOdtNfQWig`׉ 7cassandra://vXdo2dVNJWE0ZRz8MG6j6ylwIewF_ZuEYvvGteTGcTQ͞`t׉ 7cassandra://aEP58_Gkf7IlddFvtfTg4FYZn_XgR2nYohlUTsHUAzk/R`׉ 7cassandra://hobCJ8OxmGdPt6fYubH0Z5O3XrTQgI433-vCUD-VL5U[|L͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://qSwLdmvaib7n386ZripBAIn5_j3a0ylPpmnL4qeBWkY `׉ 7cassandra://z-x5E1LaAquBSeoFvVWnxh4v8FC5CslmMt2-5S4Kmr4ͮ`t׉ 7cassandra://mLHxPivM2FR-a2lJB8xbad9WBhG99UqFzTgUAzO91Rs1R`׉ 7cassandra://2kr1HtpxQdH0WoaqV_dvfnTVQjNfXTp-G7iRnCs-feY͠bd*Fז0?H9׉E42 Photo by Cecil SHillingford • Continued from previous page cannot resume. or a disaster. Overall vulnerability is a function of the relationship between hazards and level of risk. DISRUPTION A major hurricane impact results in disruption. The disruption relates primarily to services. Services provided by all sectors are usually suspended because the situation must be assessed and decisions taken as to how best to resume services. This often takes time. It sometimes affects essential services. DELAY Delays are common with hurricane impacts. Entities might have been directly damaged but because of disruptions that have taken place in other areas of the economy, then delays arise. A school might not have undergone serious damage but if there is extensive damage to the water system, the school DISORDER Hurricanes can create disorder in several ways. The disorder can result from the destruction, damage, and delay alluded to before. Additionally, disorder can result from actions by small groups of persons engaging in nefarious activities such as looting or larceny. DESPAIR There is an increasing realisation that major hurricanes can create a sense of despair that can affect individuals, families and communities. There is also the realisation that the socio/economic realities of our region indicate that the despair is often greater among women because of their living circumstances. This is an area in which there are increasingly strident calls for preventive and corrective action. ׉ 7cassandra://aEP58_Gkf7IlddFvtfTg4FYZn_XgR2nYohlUTsHUAzk/R`d*|Fז0?H8׉E 43 One of the greatest challenges of Recovery management after a hurricane is the challenge of replacing what has been totally lost or otherwise destroyed. (Photo by Cecil Shillingford) W e continue to reiterate our opinion that the public sector is pivotal in any crisis, emergency, or disaster situation that happens in a CARICAD member state. Tropical storms and hurricanes are persistent and perennial hazards in the Caribbean. The devasting events of the 2017 hurricane season illustrate the importance of the entire public sector being well prepared for such events. The CARICAD Secretariat had for many years made the case that effective Disaster Management in the Region was heavily dependent on a public sector that was prepared to play a critical leadership and management role in all phases of the disaster cycle. The effects of hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 made the point forcibly for yet another time. The ongoing volcanic events in St. Vincent and the Grenadines provide another reminder. The public sector includes statutory organisations, executive agencies and government companies. In those cases, the level of independence of the organisations will be greater than in a hierarchical line Ministry reporting relationship. However, the government still maintains administrative control. In the smallest of the member states the public sector may well be the most prominent provider of health, education, emergency shelter, welfare, security, utility, environmental protection and communication services. The level of readiness and response and recovery capacity of the public sector may determine the overall effectiveness of the Recovery effort. The transition to Recovery means an affected state would have gone through much of the trauma and challenge of the Response Phase and would then be moving to “return to normal” as far as possible. The commitment to returning to normal carries with it the understanding that the public sector will also be attempting to return to normal. “Normal” in a post-hurricane situation will be more aspirational than actual for many months. Public sector managers should recognise that despite the dramatic negative effects of disasters that there is a potential for the positive. Disasters create an opportunity not only to rebuild and replace but to change and improve (Transform). This suggests that there will be a need for clarity of vision, knowledge, skills and a commitment to consistent determined action to make the changes that will lead to greater resilience and sustainability. The ‘R” Framework for Recovery that we provide here is intended to help public sector managers establish clear priorities for post-hurricane Recovery. • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://mLHxPivM2FR-a2lJB8xbad9WBhG99UqFzTgUAzO91Rs1R`d*|Fז0?H8Ӂd*|Fז0?H8ҁppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://QOubnvKoGRFkyce1jkt_5XkopBu_m3F8kh_8kM8q49A`׉ 7cassandra://eeyU13uTNzGBVDVKlq1ZJhQ495fws1-art1uLG9cqtE``t׉ 7cassandra://Xb6DrcJ4btZEb5Q4Xf578hAKiFg2_zZ_zjMrJeb2SGk`׉ 7cassandra://qo6Ah0FMMZiGdKp14JFNODbKbwbqGb3hjc9AYsYuU_0Z:͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://rRWwVH9kx6tHWQj7G9IihOGcrux3ZObKuekvWsItqtIn`׉ 7cassandra://myufauw72EyUeyHV895AhMbTbHNTemvoAvVbsP8B6AQ͑`t׉ 7cassandra://tE16AXT45qnFifeaXzl1QUpuk__TuJr95MrFIOwy6mM/y`׉ 7cassandra://xGmJspcMz6TAnoROeCoNyggnrGjUWe6_uk8QINUM2V43͠bd*Fז0?H9נd*Fז0?H9s9׉Hhttp://www.antiguamet.com/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9K9׉H5https://www.bahamas.gov.bs/wps/portal/public/Weather/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9̳9׉H https://www.barbadosweather.org/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99׉HDhttps://www.yahoo.com/news/weather/barbados/saint-michael/bridgetownGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Ё9׉H/http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.phpGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99׉Hhttp://nms.gov.bz/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9H9׉Hhttp://www.cdema.org/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99׉Hhttps://dem.gov.bb/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9*^9׉Hhttps://dem.gov.bb/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9s 9׉H-https://gaa.gd/grenada-meteorological-office/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9C9׉Hhttps://metservice.gov.jm/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9W9׉Hhttps://met.gov.lc/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99׉Hhttps://www.metoffice.gov.tt/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Ё9׉Hhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9̧9׉Hhttp://www.weather.comGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99׉H%http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Q9׉Hhttps://public.wmo.int/enGׁ ׁ r׉Ew44 KEY ACTION AREAS TASKS AND ACTIVITIES REPAIR REPLACE REDUCE RE-DEVELOP RE-DEPLOY REMOVE REGAIN RETAIN • Schools • Health facilities • Other government buildings • Coastal defences • Docks and ancillary facilities • Infrastructure damaged beyond repair • Emergency Supplies • Equipment • Outmoded legislation • Vulnerability to storms, hurricanes and their associated negative effects • Vulnerability to the effects of climate change • Community-level Disaster Management structures and procedures • Hazard-resistant shelters • Search and rescue capacity • Emergency communications arrangements • Emergency water supplies • Early warning systems • Emergency warehouse arrangements • Debris removal systems • Procedures for continuity of Government • Procedures for protecting cultural and recreational facilities • Retrofit selected buildings • Critical personnel to focus on the Management of Recovery • Financial resources to meet the costs of Recovery Projects and programmes • Human-caused hazards that can increase vulnerability and the negative effects of Climate Change • A national approach to environmental protection, vulnerability reduction and Climate Change Adaptation • Needs-based, direct, welfare and housing assistance programmes • A Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) approach to vulnerability reduction • Up-to-date strategy for all phases of the Disaster Cycle • Systems and procedures for effective mass communication and information dissemination • Effective vector and rodent control systems • Strategic partnerships with the non-state sectors – private and voluntary • Pre- and post-event procedures for working with local, regional and international agencies • Gender-sensitive approaches to Recovery • A strong-focus on psychosocial issues during Recovery • Up-to-date comprehensive disaster legislation ׉ 7cassandra://Xb6DrcJ4btZEb5Q4Xf578hAKiFg2_zZ_zjMrJeb2SGk`d*|Fז0?H8׉E45  That there is an average of nine hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic each year  The 2020 hurricane season is the first in which there have been three named storms by June 2  The Atlantic Basin includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico  At least one hurricane has appeared in each month of the year in the Atlantic  September is considered the peak month for Atlantic hurricanes  Several hurricanes have occurred on December 25 (Christmas Day) in the Caribbean in historic times  A storm is not classified as a hurricane until the sustained winds are at least 74 miles per hour  Hurricane Irma in 2017 had sustained wind speeds of at least 185 per hour  Hurricanes are downgraded to tropical storm status if the sustained winds drop below 74 miles per hour  Barbados is the most easterly of the islands in the Caribbean chain  Belize is not a Caribbean island, but it is also subject to the threat of hurricanes  Hurricanes can do extensive damage through heavy (torrential) rainfall even if the winds are of minimal hurricane strength. It has been reported that a hurricane once drenched Texas with 23 inches of rain in 24 hours  A hurricane may be as much as six hundred (600) miles in diameter  The winds in a hurricane spin in an anticlockwise manner  A Knot is a measure of speed. It is one nautical mile per hour. It is slightly longer that a statute mile. You can convert Knots per hour to miles per hour by multiplying the figure by 1.15 • Antigua & Barbuda Meteorological Services • Bahamas Meteorology Department • Barbados Weather • Barbados Weather on Yahoo • Barbados Weather at CDEMA • National Meteorological Service of Belize • CDEMA • Department of Emergency Management (DEM) Barbados • Grenada Meteorological Office • Meteorological Service of Jamaica • Saint Lucia Meteorological Services • Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service • NATIONAL Hurricane Centre • Weather Channel • Weather Underground • World Meteorological Organization ׉ 7cassandra://tE16AXT45qnFifeaXzl1QUpuk__TuJr95MrFIOwy6mM/y`d*|Fז0?H8d*|Fז0?H8ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://g6xX6TQhqUjNDBg9aHpHBELAWb2sfuo_vXTNdr5utEk8`׉ 7cassandra://4NlzTeB6w3Cv6UATNzJ7OP66l3xLCGpAe7ltxw3qWE8ͱ`t׉ 7cassandra://UzWeQsmZFisDHeNv7aw0E8unyvEC0hu7yLam24yFwCw0`׉ 7cassandra://zuOO2kt4UsapxUyAUh-ew5407NAy7YAfWpGEc3VAsDM1͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://PaixofEnOZgqgGIH5b0eSjbt0qNGqKIREkGbVdhZ_KAsE`׉ 7cassandra://VCUfSI8U2SWoVtDvO-m8K5_fCVRscgPiIu2hHmuawc4͓`t׉ 7cassandra://hEuqEAUugfTZmEEq38cIlwXIpVhZZFmTi9Ty2_Tf5wM+z`׉ 7cassandra://yp-TzaOI8euYIaNqv2r-El34KSG9aHzAfcBEyW_osZMk͠bd*Fז0?H9נd*Fז0?H9S̖9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9K9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99U9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9̄%9׉H/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#SUBCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9K9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99ҁK9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99̖9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9:K9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#EYEWALLGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H99̖9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9cK9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Á!yU9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ā4̖9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Ł]؁9׉H-http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#EPACGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ƁI9׉H-http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#CPACGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ǁ!w9׉H-http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#CPACGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ȁn^9׉H2http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#HURRICANEGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Ɂj]9׉H2http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#HURRICANEGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ʁJ̖9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ˁ`]9׉H2http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#HURRICANEGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9́A9׉H/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#CENTERGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9́K9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9΁jK9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ρ}]9׉H2http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#HURRICANEGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Ёj"]9׉H2http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#HURRICANEGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9сj(̠9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ҁmˁ̖9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Ӂm#̖9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ԁ̖9׉H0http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYCGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9ՁZĕ9׉H1http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPSTRMGׁ ׁ r׉E 46 C ARICAD encourages you to become familiar with the specific terms that are used in official circles in relation to tropical storms and hurricanes. The more familiar you are with the meanings of the terms, the more confident you will be with your own Preparedness and the more likely you will be to help others to prepare. The following are among those terms: SOURCE – National Hurricane Centre – USA Advisory: Official information issued by tropical cyclone warning centres describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and movement, and precautions that should be taken. Advisories are also issued to describe: (a) tropical cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings and (b) subtropical cyclones. They are usually issued every six hours. Special advisories are issued when there is a significant change in storm-related weather conditions. Centre (Center): Generally speaking, the vertical axis of a tropical cyclone, usually defined by the location of minimum wind or minimum pressure. The cyclone centre position can vary with altitude. Cyclone: An atmospheric closed circulation rotating counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Eye: The roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the centre of a severe tropical cyclone. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud. Eyewall/Wall Cloud: An organised band or ring of cumulonimbus clouds that surround the eye, or light-wind canter of a tropical cyclone. Eyewall and wall cloud are used synonymously. Gale Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 kit (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 47 knots (54 mph or 87 km/hr) inclusive, either predicted or occurring and not directly associated with tropical cyclones. High Wind Warning: A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute average surface winds of 35 knots (40 mph or 64 km/hr) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds gusting to 50 knots (58 mph or 93 km/hr) or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land. Hurricane/Typhoon: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 knots (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator west of the International Dateline. Hurricane Season: The portion of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes. The hurricane season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico runs from June 1 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific basin runs from May 15 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Central Pacific basin runs from June 1 to November 30. Hurricane Warning: A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force. • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://UzWeQsmZFisDHeNv7aw0E8unyvEC0hu7yLam24yFwCw0`d*|Fז0?H9׉E 47 • Continued from previous page Hurricane Watch: An announcement for specific coastal areas that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Indirect Hit: Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least four feet above normal. Landfall: The intersection of the surface centre of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the centre, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Major Hurricane: A hurricane that is classified as Category 3 or higher. Storm Surge: An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide. Storm Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of 48 knots t (55 mph or 88 km/hr) or greater, predicted or occurring, not directly associated with tropical cyclones. Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 knots (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less. Tropical Disturbance: A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organised convection — generally 100 to 300 nautical miles in diameter — originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field. Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 knots (39 mph or 63 km/ hr) to 63 knots (73 mph or 118 km/hr). Tropical Storm Warning: A warning that sustained winds within the range of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less. Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement for specific coastal areas that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. Tropical Wave: A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade-wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere. ׉ 7cassandra://hEuqEAUugfTZmEEq38cIlwXIpVhZZFmTi9Ty2_Tf5wM+z`d*|Fז0?H9d*|Fז0?H9ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://VbvOb6ya1tz5iCPbhgdEZosxt5OVesHk9dOiLHc5pKE0`׉ 7cassandra://0boQV5uLPqMes3lebnJUMyeapH4B70eygeU14VR2nMI͂C`t׉ 7cassandra://GrUBIunaiMrunduwv1jSOd6vDYiAnjanGTopwm_p9Ow*`׉ 7cassandra://YAI_w8BE4e8ulTPf6A8NkJiBHZtI4s5uqNmmLksZaXI2T͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://LMP2jtJ49GLuNv_WWG-hlCO03AlNTYBawlFsdV2312I~`׉ 7cassandra://1Lc4QFHcDYRTqG0mTdDmS0sjOb2ktSsU_MAnXW8xYXkw`t׉ 7cassandra://rM23Yh8OYfGR1yY3DKkZODEZM-6a-1h8jkQRigTttPM'Z`׉ 7cassandra://UG_ZrGL3rdbszuU6Zyxb0gcfcoKyXYfi4OufutW_EPc׾̜͠bd*Fז0?H9׉E48 LIST OF NATIONAL DISASTER COORDINATORS OF THE CDEMA PARTICIPATING STATES Last updated: 9 September 2022 by Leslie Scott • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://GrUBIunaiMrunduwv1jSOd6vDYiAnjanGTopwm_p9Ow*`d*|Fז0?H9׉E49 Coastal Protection in Road Town Tortola BVI – very important to reduce damage to critical infrastructur e by storm surges in hurricanes. (Photo by Frankie Michael) • Continued from previous page • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://rM23Yh8OYfGR1yY3DKkZODEZM-6a-1h8jkQRigTttPM'Z`d*|Fז0?H9d*|Fז0?H9ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://0OeZ5Wrjy9iOj9OAjGMpj1nSB6JnQBi01VxVnaorpGk`׉ 7cassandra://xi1nCHbicEMYE9U3_7zge7Uk5eWA2A5980dIuwsFkPQuT`t׉ 7cassandra://eKXj2V_c53UyCUNiY-kofV6zU4mvmrwehTBGAzLZ83k&`׉ 7cassandra://KMfq0PPQH9rheIm30zpfuHvR9TjhJoA1dLwQF-OYTuU H͠bd*Fז0?H9ט88pu׉׉ 7cassandra://KyFxuk_wt2T1Q3JNMWEYaxqYRXB9A7yws4y3bJ2erwI`׉ 7cassandra://Pk2nrg4W-btAcSzafrpnvD1eNektlM220uy3arviUFMw`t׉ 7cassandra://OFWchIxdBT11n3RJ4ZTfjkeVF0HmQMpxiKDUV9AoATA&S`׉ 7cassandra://pgVtRltgCYYYpmJclrA7TqMcjMewbQhIfAwHBR0xpjY!/8͠bd*Fז0?H9׉E?50 • Continued from previous page • Continues on next page ׉ 7cassandra://eKXj2V_c53UyCUNiY-kofV6zU4mvmrwehTBGAzLZ83k&`d*|Fז0?H9׉E$51 • Continued from previous page ׉ 7cassandra://OFWchIxdBT11n3RJ4ZTfjkeVF0HmQMpxiKDUV9AoATA&S`d*|Fז0?H9 d*|Fז0?H9ppבCט8pu׉׉ 7cassandra://bPFr9qCZGYsMT3xnEWXkGjW--2-KTBPyQkrC3JMzAuU`׉ 7cassandra://iDcFREIIGks2Lk9cOFBMYjMtROTLq0po5pagsBWjQWs͊`t׉ 7cassandra://tfTWeCGyd-9yFW6DXtRBrEK0qXhLgH53DioNhUO0HtE*`׉ 7cassandra://BFFlx-ITF1LUzt6m7xRacgYbcve2DGIisk2ZX54O7Bw H(͠bd*Fז0?H9נd*Fז0?H9߁ h 9׉H7https://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon---feb-2023-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9U 9׉HBhttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-march-2022-newsletter-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9%o 9׉HEhttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-december-2021-newsletter-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H92a 9׉H>https://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-october-2021-newsletterGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9> 9׉HMhttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricads-horizon---hurricane-edition-june-2021Gׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9KU 9׉HAhttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-horizon-march-2021---finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Wa 9׉HFhttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-october-2020-newsletter---finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9d{ 9׉H=https://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon-july-august-2020-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9p 9׉HBhttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon---hurricane-june-2020-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9} 9׉H=https://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon---covid-may-2020-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9 U 9׉H7https://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon-march-2020-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9k 9׉H5https://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon-dec-2019-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9%] 9׉H5https://publizr.com/caricadsec/horizon-oct-2019-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H92 9׉HPhttps://publizr.com/car%C3%A2%E2%80%A2%C2%A6/caricad-august-2019-special-editionGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9>L 9׉HBhttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-april-2019-newsletter-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9Ko 9׉HBhttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-december-2018-newsletter-hlGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9W[ 9׉HChttps://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-august-2018-newsletter-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9do 9׉H>https://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-december2017-newsletterGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9pG 9׉H9https://publizr.com/caricadsec/caricad-horizon-july-finalGׁ ׁ rנd*Fז0?H9_ 9ׁHhttp://www.caricad.netׁ ׁ Јנd*Fז0?H9rr 9ׁHmailto:caricad@caricad.netׁ ׁ Ј׉Eu52 Port Little Bay, Montserrat. (Photo by Frankie Michael) DISCLAIMER FOR HORIZON HURRICANE EDITION The information provided in this newsletter is set in the context of CARICAD’S Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with CDEMA. The MOU was signed in 2016. It is stated in the Rationale that both CARICAD and CDEMA have the ultimate aim of facilitating and supporting sustainable development and on improving capacity within member states. The two institutions also agreed to continue joint efforts to mainstream Disaster Risk Reduction. Therefore, the contents of this newsletter are not intended to replace, duplicate or supplant any information provided by CDEMA or the National Disaster Offices of CARICAD member states. It is intended to reinforce their efforts. THE TEAM The CARICAD Horizon is a regular publication of the Caribbean Centre for Development Administration (CARICAD). The Horizon has superseded the “Chronicle”. The Editor-in-Chief is CARICAD’s Executive Director, Devon Rowe. The Production Team comprises: Franklyn Michael, Rosemund Warrington, Dr. Lois Parkes, Trudy Waterman, Angela Eversley and Petra Emmanuel. Previous editions can be viewed at: February 2023 March 2022 December 2021 October 2021 Special Hurricane Edition June 2021 March 2021 October 2020 July-August 2020 Special Hurricane Edition June 2020 Special COVID-19 Edition May 2020 March 2020 December 2019 October 2019 Board Meeting 2019 Special Edition April 2019 December 2018 August 2018 December 2017 July 2017 1st Floor Weymouth Corporate Centre, Roebuck Street, Bridgetown, Barbados Tel: 246-427-8535 Email: caricad@caricad.net Website: www.caricad.net ׉ 7cassandra://tfTWeCGyd-9yFW6DXtRBrEK0qXhLgH53DioNhUO0HtE*`d*|Fז0?H9׈Ed*|Fז0?H9d*|Fז0?H9pp,#HORIZON - Hurricane July 2023 FINALBRead the 2023 Special Hurricane Edition of the Horizon Newsletter.d*f?UŎ|