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Volume 5, Issu 1e 2
HOR ZON
O
HOR ZON
ur regular
Horizon
Newsletter
comprises articles
prepared by staff
and personnel of the
CARICAD Secretariat
along with
reproductions of
articles written by
distinguished
personages or
emerging young
professionals in the
Caribbean. This
special second
hurricane
preparedness issue
of the Horizon is
different. All original
articles were written
by CARICADâ€™s
Programme
Specialist Franklyn
Michael. He also
undertook all the
research for material
that accompanies the
original articles as
cited and sourced.
Thank you, Frankie.
I think the 2021
version is as
useful as the 2020
version was.
Devon Rowe,
Executive Director
CARICAD and
Editor-in-Chief of the
Horizon Newsletter
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I
n the 2020 edition of the Hurricane Season
Horizon Newsletter we said:
The COVID-19 crisis continues to unfold as
the 2020 hurricane season has begun. This is
unchartered territory for all of our members
states. The development of a storm or
hurricane that could pose a direct threat
would be a cause for great concern in the
COVID-19 context.
We are all relieved that although the 2020 Atlantic
Hurricane Season had 30 named storms, there was
no widespread
devastation and
damage among
CARICAD member
states as there was in
2017. Experts have
again predicted that
the 2021 hurricane
season will be above
average in terms of
level of activity.
Significant progress
has been made in
controlling the spread
of the COVID-19
virus in many
Caribbean countries.
There were no
vaccinations in 2020
because the vaccines were not yet available.
However the vaccination campaigns in 2021 have
been laudable. There is some anxiety arising yet
again because of an apparent â€œthird waveâ€ of
COVID-19 infections not only in some
extra-regional environments but also among some
CARICAD member states at the time of production
of this newsletter (May 2021).
La Soufriere volcano in
St. Vincent and the
Grenadines. The
explosive eruption took
place in early April 2021.
There have been ongoing
events since that time.
We reiterate our
statement of intent from
last year, adapted for this year. We have once
again produced this special edition of CARICADâ€™s
Horizon Newsletter to help the entire public sector
in member states prepare for the 2021 hurricane
season against the
backdrop of the
COVID-19 crisis. We
have provided
practical suggestions
that we hope our
public sector
leaders/managers
will embrace and
implement.
Devon Rowe,
Executive Director
CARICAD
For this publication, we again utilised photographs such as
this one provided by Father DeAngelo Bowe, Rector of the
Holy Spirit Anglican Church in The Bahamas, which show the
immense damage caused by Hurricane Dorian in 2019.
We are aware that
you might require
more detailed and in
some cases very
specific information
that you might not
get here in this
Horizon Newsletter.
We hope that this
newsletter will encourage you to get any additional
information you need from authoritative sources.
Please contact us and let us know if there is
anything you think that we at the CARICAD
Secretariat can do to help you prepare more
effectively for this 2021 hurricane season.
We have updated some of the articles we published
last year because of their immutable relevance but
we have added a significant number of new ones in
this edition. What we have described above exists
as a backdrop to a major explosive eruption of the
On a final note, apart from researching the content
and scripting the articles in this second special
edition of the hurricane season newsletter, I am
delighted that this year Programme Specialist
Franklyn Michael has also shown us his creative
side with the poem Facing the Force, which you
can read on the page which follows.
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by Franklyn Michael
Verse 1
Growling and howling like a giant beast
It beats, it bleats, it roars, it is all around
A terrifying sound
Thunderous crackling
Stabbing, flashes of lightening
Howling hiss of horizontal rain
Frightening,
Gray skyscrapers of sodden clouds
Deny sunlight in the midst of the day
Darkness, envelopes all
Darkness, over our land
Darkness, over mountains and sea
Darkness, over you, over me
Darkness, a blanket for our country
Verse 2
The hurricane is here
Feels like itâ€™s everywhere
Category four
Now at my door
Anxious and cradled in fear
I whisper a marathon prayer
Resurrecting faith and embracing hope
The crash, a slash itâ€™s gone to ground
Composites of memories now shattered all around
A creak, a creak, a creak
It lifts and shifts and starts to leak
My hope for a roof lies in a contractorâ€™s integrity
Did he do all that he had promised me
Verse 3
Invisible damage but audible grief
There is as yet no sense of relief
A new tomorrow I foresee
No electricity
No computer, no cell phone, no TV
WhatsApp is Whatâ€™s gone
No microwave convenience
Three stones or a coal pot
Black soot and smoky fare
Sardine survival, corned beef and biscuit revival
Facebook will be silent, Instagram too
No Signal to website access, what will the youth do
I have been here before, life in a reverse process
Facing the force and survived
It is a wild and crazy ride
Tomorrow my life will change again for many months
Back to basics no computer fonts
Verse 4
Tomorrow I may see
Death, damage, destruction expansively
Tomorrow, I will experience delay, disorder and feel despair
Category 4 crash landed here
We know the rhythm, the cycle and sequence
June to November but worse in September
Emotionally we embrace our ancestorsâ€™ souls
You our forebears trod this road
Help, help us to carry our load
Yes, our Caribbean reality
Archipelagic geography
Equatorial proximity
The root causes of vulnerability
Today, we must plan, adopt, adapt with innovation
Determination
Embrace Resilience
Climate Change is not surreal
We need a Global, Green New Deal
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In 2021, Hurricane Preparedness will still be taking place in a
COVID-19 context. (Photo by Franklyn Michael)
T
he COVID-19 crisis continues to unfold even
though the levels of infection may now be
lower in many CARICAD member states than
in June 2020. This means that in 2021, hurricane
Preparedness and if necessary Response and
Recovery will still be taking place in a COVID-19
context.
Effective procedures in the Preparedness phase,
(long before any potential hurricane threats) are
vital for proficient Response and Recovery. The
2021 hurricane season is forecast to be above
average in level of activity once again. In April of
this year, the Colorado State University (CSU)
predicted 17 named storms for the season. They
also predicted four major hurricanes. They
forecasted 80 named storm days and 35 hurricane
days. Those estimates are well above the long-term
averages.
The CSU forecast will have been updated in June
after circulation of this our special hurricane season
newsletter. The April forecast described above
suggests that CARICAD member states should plan
for the probability that impacts from a storm or
hurricane might occur.
The novel Coronavirus was first reported in the
Caribbean during the first week of March 2020. Our
member states have been responding to the
resultant pandemic for more than a year now. The
macroeconomic, fiscal, societal and psychological
effects have been severe.
ïƒ  Deaths have been attributed to the virus in all
member states
ïƒ  Extensive lockdowns had severe economic
consequences. The lockdowns sometimes had to
be repeated thus exacerbating the negative
effects
ïƒ  Governmentsâ€™ expenditures have increased
markedly and revenues have fallen even more
dramatically than expenditures have increased
ïƒ  Unemployment and underemployment remain
high in several member states
ï‚· Continues on next page
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ï‚· Continued from previous page
ïƒ  Public access to many
government services has been
reduced
ïƒ  Working from home for at least pa
of the time is now the norm for
many people
ïƒ  Schools resorted to teaching and
learning by distance for
extended periods
ïƒ  Live sporting and entertainment
events such as carnivals have bee
decimated
ïƒ  New standards of proximity and
personal closeness in all business and
social interactions have to be maintained
ïƒ  Workplace layouts now cater for a minimal
distance between workers
ïƒ  Air and sea travel are a small fraction of
pre-pandemic levels
ïƒ  Seating arrangements for public transport
remain under constant monitoring
ïƒ  Hours of work have been adjusted and the
wearing of masks or other facial coverings for
extended periods of time, remain as a protocol
ïƒ  Work and public dining arrangements remain
rigidly controlled
ïƒ  Social interaction among relatives and friends
has often been prohibited for extended periods
POLICIES AND STRATEGIES
The list of issues shown above is continuing to
create a â€œnew normalâ€ for human interaction
throughout the world. We first shared some
adaptation suggestions in the 2020 edition. The
2021 hurricane season coincides with efforts in
member states to â€œre-open the economy and
societyâ€. This means that the challenge to maintain
physical and social distance will be greater than it
was during â€œLockdownâ€. There could be
unprecedented management challenges in relation
to hurricane preparedness among the CARICAD
member states that are threatened each year by
tropical storms and hurricanes. The implications for
shelter management in the St. Vincent and the
Grenadines evacuation is a singular and specific
COVID-19-related challenge for that country at this
time.
CARICAD recommends the following strategic and
operational approaches for member states during
the 2021 hurricane season in the context of
COVID-19:
ïƒ  Thoroughly assess the strengths and weaknesses
of all organisational structure arrangements for
the hurricane season especially strategy-level
planning documents, organisational structures,
(National Emergency Councils and Operations
Centres) staffing/personnel, supplies, equipment
and other resources. Take urgent action to deal
ï‚· Continues on next page
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Plans should include
guidelines for dealing with
both hurricane recovery and
the COVID-19 crisis, among
other hazards and threats.
ï‚· Continued from previous page
with weaknesses that could negatively affect
Preparedness/Response and Recovery efforts. A
SWOT analysis can be done quickly and is a
good basis for action. CARICAD can provide
guidance
ïƒ  Urgently review the national disaster policy, the
Disaster Act and regulations. Ensure that there
is no conflict with any regulations brought into
effect for the COVID-19 Response. Adapt
operational procedures accordingly
ïƒ  Review and revise the National Emergency
Operations Centre (NEOC) plans and
arrangements. Ensure that there is a proper
interface with the national COVID-19 Task Force
or closest equivalent working group or
committee.
ïƒ  Reappoint a Hurricane/COVID-19 chief strategist
for 2021 preparations. That person should have
a declared Deputy and should report directly to
the Head of Government or Head of State as
appropriate. This could be done as a temporary
re-deployment for the 2021 hurricane season
ïƒ  Review all national/territorial/sectoral/agency
hurricane-related plans for Preparedness,
Response and Recovery and ensure that
mitigative strategies for dealing with the
COVID-19 crisis are included as updates in the
plans for all phases of the Disaster Cycle
ïƒ  Ensure that all public sector entities (Ministries,
Departments, Public Companies, Statutory
Boards and Public Corporations) prepare or
update their Business Continuity Plans. The
plans should include guidelines for dealing with
both hurricane recovery and the COVID-19
crisis, among other hazards and threats.
Ensure also that the plans are based on and are
ï‚· Continues on next page
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Post-hurricane recovery
presents new challenges
with COVID-19.
ï‚· Continued from previous page
aligned with the national guidelines for both
hurricanes and COVID-19. Finalise the
documents by July 15, 2021. CARICAD had
prepared and circulated a Business Continuity
Plan Template for the pandemic in 2020 for your
guidance
ïƒ  Pay close attention to any personnel who
will be required to assist in emergency medical
response, front-line health care, Search and
Rescue and Shelter Management. Ensure that
they are aware of their higher levels of risks and
the need for them to be vigilant with regard to
COVID-19 so that they can reduce the risks to
co-workers if they will be involved in
post-hurricane Recovery
ïƒ  Create an integrated and harmonised,
multi-dimensional public awareness strategy for
both hurricane preparedness and COVID-19
ïƒ  Ensure that any specialised COVID-19
quarantine facilities can be easily â€œstood upâ€ or
made ready at very short notice for the duration
of the hurricane season. Fine-tune or reactivate
contact tracing arrangements for COVID-19. Put
plans in place for supplementary facilities
ïƒ  Ensure that there is a stockpile of Personal
Protective Equipment (PPE) for all front-line
personnel. Remember that front-line personnel
for post-hurricane Preparedness will be a
broader and possibly larger group than for the
original COVID-19 response
ïƒ  Make warehouse management policies
COVID-19 compliant
ïƒ  Make sure that key personnel receive
COVID-related hurricane training
ïƒ  Test key personnel systematically and regularly
for COVID-19 especially those who are in direct
contact with large numbers of people for
extended periods
ïƒ  Establish a Monitoring and Reporting
mechanism for Hurricane Preparedness
and Response that can be easily extended into
ï‚· Continues on next page
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Clarify and finalise deployment arrangements for public officers who may be required to lead or support a
post-hurricane Recovery effort. (Photo by Franklyn Michael)
ï‚· Continued from previous page
Recovery if required
ïƒ  Review emergency shelter policy, strategy and
plans. It is likely that there will be major
adjustments needed in shelter plans to cope
with the COVID-19 threat and the physical
distancing recommendations of WHO/PAHO
ïƒ  Review and revise all shelter management rules
and operational guidelines to ensure they are
made compliant with COVID-19 procedures.
Ensure that they are ratified as may be required
by local law
ïƒ  Create a COVID-19-compliant policy for
long-term care facilities especially those that
may become longer-term emergency shelters
for elderly or special needs persons
GENERAL/OPERATIONAL SUGGESTIONS
ïƒ  Clarify and finalise deployment arrangements
for public officers who may be required to lead
or support a post-hurricane Recovery effort.
Make sure that they will not be listed as critical
for the ongoing COVID-19 response
ïƒ  Clarify and promulgate guidelines for the
deployment of vulnerable staff and personnel
during the 2021 hurricane season in the context
of COVID-19
ïƒ  Brief staff at all levels about the plans for
hurricane and COVID-19 preparedness. Pay
particular attention to briefings for senior and
top-level public sector managers
ïƒ  Establish operational procedures that will be
consistent as far as practicable in all those
agencies that provide direct service to the
public with COVID-19 compliant guidelines for
matters such as:
ï‚· Retrofitting of service counters
ï‚· Policies on masks and personal protective
equipment (PPE). Protocols for the use of
PPE
ï‚· Protocols for clients and other stakeholders
on arrival. Sanitation procedures especially
on entry by the public
ï‚· Continues on next page
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ï‚· Continued from previous page
ï‚· Emergency response
arrangements for suspected
COVID-19 cases among staff or
clients
ï‚· Strategies to observe physical
distancing in all face-to-face
interactions
ï‚· Hours of operation for service to
the public
ï‚· Close-down procedures during
hurricane alerts
ï‚· Resumption arrangements
after the threat of a hurricane
has passed
ï‚· The security arrangements that
will be put in place for offices,
facilities, equipment and
supplies during a Storm/Hurricane Watch
or Warning
Attention must be paid to public service announcements to avoid the
complete loss of your possessions. (Photo by Fr. Bowe)
ï‚· Requirement to reduce numbers in confined
spaces and common areas
ï‚· Monitoring of staff and visitors of companies
with technology-enabled video records of
entry, logbooks or registers with contact
details. These could be crucial for contact
tracing later on so maintenance of these is
also critical
ï‚· Dealing with suspected COVID-19 cases and
contact tracing in hurricane Response and
Recovery situations
ï‚· Procedures for maintaining high standards
of personal hygiene and high standards of
sanitation in offices and other places of work
and interaction. This might include erecting
new hand sanitiser stations, thermometers
and additional hand-washing facilities
ï‚· Arrangements for provision of masks for
personnel and visitors
ï‚· Public service announcements â€“ video/audio/
graphics
ï‚· Review and revise Relief Management
procedures to include COVID-19-related
protocols and precautions
ï‚· Transportation arrangements for military
personnel and volunteers. The arrangements
should comply with the COVID-19 protocols
and precautions
ï‚· Transport arrangements for any essential
works
ï‚· Sanitation and hand-washing procedures for
locations at which large numbers of people
might be working for extended periods of time
such as at the National Emergency
Operations Centre (NEOC). There could be a
need to install additional hand-washing
facilities
ï‚· Continues on next page
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Fresh challenges await
a country devastated
by a hurricane.
(Photo by Fr. Bowe)
ï‚· Continued from previous page
ïƒ  Mandate and oversee the necessary training for
Shelter Managers and their teams. The
guidelines should include procedures for visitors
at shelters
ïƒ  Establish procedures for dealing with
non-compliance at shelters
ïƒ  Stockpile an adequate supply of WHO/PAHO
recommended COVID-19 posters for mounting
in strategic areas in shelters and other key
facilities
ïƒ  Implement a COVID-19 compliant retrofitting
and management programme for sanitation and
safety at shelters:
ï‚· Testing of shelterees for COVID-19 on
arrival for initial occupancy and during
protracted stays at shelters
ï‚· Stocks of individual registration sheets
maintained in a computer-friendly manner
for later data entry
ï‚· Procedures for taking temperatures
ï‚· Continues on next page
ï‚· Policies on mask-wearing at shelters
ï‚· Ratio of persons to toilets and showers
â€“ number of showers and toilets
ï‚· Sanitiser dispensers
ï‚· Garbage disposal arrangements
ï‚· Transparent barriers (sneeze guards) for
reception-type staff/volunteers
ï‚· PPE supplies for shelter personnel including
face guards for registration and service
personnel
ï‚· Numbers of stoves per shelter
ï‚· Procedures for laundry
ï‚· Expanded spacing of cots and other
furniture
ï‚· In-shelter isolation of suspected COVID-19
cases
ï‚· Establish appropriate COVID-19
arrangements for preparation, service and
consumption of food
ï‚· Include shelter personnel on a high priority
list for repeat testing for COVID-19
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The public sector sets the strategic and
operational context. Be sure you are ready
to lead and manage in the event of a
hurricane. (Photo by Fr. Bowe)
ï‚· Continued from previous page
CONCLUDING SUGGESTIONS
1. Be proactive and initiate planning at all levels
early in the hurricane season
2. Seek to create a culture of mutual support
among key officials across all sectors
3. Invest in intensive training including desktop
exercises especially for new entrants in the
system
4. Share information about plans with the public
on a consistent basis
5. Complete or update all critical Memoranda of
Understanding (MOUs) before the peak of the
hurricane season in August/September
6. Have a clear policy and strategy for promoting
and supporting COVID-19 vaccinations for all
key personnel
7. Develop sound plans for dealing with children.
Their presence could become a management
issue in the fight against COVID-19
The Caribbean region has a wealth of experience in
preparing for and responding to hurricanes. The
same cannot be said for the COVID-19 crisis but
the COVID crisis requires the use of leadership,
management, coordination, teamwork and
outreach principles that are well known to many.
Our experience in dealing with the pandemic has
grown greatly during the last year. Let us see that
as a strength as we face this continuing
unprecedented challenge.
Public sector managers are often people with
significant influence not only at work but in their
communities. Our current situation is an
opportunity for all such people to use their
influence for the national good.
The private and non-government sectors are willing
and competent partners but it is the public sector
that sets the strategic and operational context. Be
sure you are ready to lead and manage.
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T
he Atlantic hurricane season starts
officially on June 1st each year and
ends on November 30th. The Colorado
State University (CSU) predicted in April
that the 2021 hurricane season would be an
active one.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) has reviewed data relating to averages for the
Atlantic Hurricane Season and reports as follows:
â€œWe anticipate that the 2021 Atlantic basin
hurricane season will have above-normal
activity. Current weak La NiÃ±a conditions
may transition to neutral ENSO by this
summer/fall, but the odds of a significant
El NiÃ±o seem unlikely. Sea surface
temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic
are currently near average, while subtropical
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer
than normal. We anticipate an above-average
probability for major hurricanes making landfall
along the continental United States coastline and
in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane
seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it
only takes one hurricane making landfall to make
it an active season for them. They should prepare
the same for every season, regardless of how
much activity is predicted.â€ (as of 8 April, 2021)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1, Michael M. Bell2, and
Jhordanne Jones3.
Extended range Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast
for 2021 Released April 8, 2021 Tropical Cyclone
Parameters Extended Range (1981-2010
Climatological Average Forecast for 2021 in
parentheses) Named Storms (12.1)* 17 Named
Storm Days (59.4) 80 Hurricanes (6.4) 8
Hurricane Days (24.2) 35 Major Hurricanes (2.7)
4 Major Hurricane Days (6.2) 9 Accumulated
Cyclone Energy (106) 150 Net Tropical Cyclone
This graphic captures the changes in Atlantic
hurricane season averages from the last
three-decade period of 1981-2010 to the most
current such period, 1991-2020. The updated
averages for the Atlantic hurricane season have
increased with 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes.
The average for major hurricanes remains unchanged
at 3.
Activity (116%) 160 * Numbers in ( ) represent
averages based on 1981-2010 data
The team predicts that 2021 hurricane activity will
be about 140 per cent of the average season. By
comparison, 2020â€™s hurricane activity was about
170 per cent of the average season. The 2020
hurricane season had six landfalling continental
US hurricanes, including Category 4 Hurricane
Laura which battered southwestern Louisiana. The
CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 3,
July 8 and Aug. 5.
This is the 38th year that the CSU hurricane
research team has issued an Atlantic basin
seasonal hurricane forecast. The Tropical
Meteorology Project team also includes Michael
Bell, associate professor in the CSU Department
of Atmospheric Science, and Jhordanne Jones,
graduate research assistant in the same
department. Bill Gray, who originated the
seasonal forecasts, launched the report in 1984
and continued to author them until his death in
2016.
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by Franklyn Michael
I
have lived through, worked
through and also observed the
effects of many major storms and
hurricanes in the Caribbean. They
include Donna, Hugo, Frederic, Luis,
Iris, Marilyn, Lenny, Ike, Ivan, Hanna,
and Tropical storm Erika.
The threat of tropical storms and
hurricanes is an inescapable feature of
life in most CARICAD member states.
We must take the threat seriously and
prepare purposefully and competently
based on up-to-date knowledge and
scientific information. This is my
attempt to assist you based on what I
lived through and learnt from my work.
I have learnt many lessons through
experience, direct observation and consultations
with colleagues in relation to family preparedness
for hurricanes. In the interest of brevity I will
highlight some of them here as bullet points.
ï‚· When you are planning for the construction of
your own home invest in hurricane resistant
design and construction in relation to the shape
of the house, water storage, the pitch of the
roof, the materials used for the roof, the
overhang, the types of windows and types and
sizes of glass sliding doors as well as the types
of tiles used. Make sure the location, design and
construction methods comply with Building
Codes and any other relevant regulations. The
cost at construction stage is a small fraction of
the potential cost of later damage.
ï‚· If your home was not designed for hurricane
resistance, invest in retrofitting such as
hurricane straps, storm shutters, emergency
Families often lose all
of their possessions
after a major hurricane.
(Photo by Fr. Bowe)
electricity and water supplies. Such investment
is cost effective. Get early advice from
manufacturers about securing solar systems and
photovoltaic systems.
ï‚· Learn as much as you can about the
vulnerability of your home to hazards such as
winds, landslides, mudslides, storm surges,
coastal flooding or landside flooding. If
evacuation is recommended during a storm
threat, have a clear plan and process. Do not
wait for the last moment if you have to
evacuate.
ï‚· Identify the location in the house where the
family will ride out the storm if there is a direct
hurricane strike and you decide to remain at
home.
ï‚· Keep at least three daysâ€™ survival food and
drinking water at all times. Salt is a common
ï‚· Continues on next page
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Losing your
home hurts
your entire
family.
(Photo by Fr. Bowe)
ï‚· Continued from previous page
food preservative but choose long-lasting foods
that do not have high salt content. High salt
content is not only deleterious for long-term
health status but it quickly increases thirst. That
thirst will encourage you to drink more water
when water might be in short supply. Nowadays
there are â€œlow salt or low sodiumâ€ versions of
many foods. Remember refrigeration might not
be available for weeks if you are struck by a
storm. Foods that require refrigeration will not
last.
ï‚· Be vigilant with prescription medications during
the hurricane season. Try to have at least a
two-week supply available throughout the
season. Store the medicines carefully especially
if there is a real hurricane threat. However, do
not store them so securely that you cannot get
access when you need them.
ï‚· Always keep a supply of batteries for
emergency lighting and transistor radios in
particular. Use and replace batteries within a
year. Keep your emergency lamps and lanterns
in locations that the family is familiar with.
ï‚· Try to create the best arrangements you can for
back-up charging of cell phones but remember
that cell phone service might not return for a
long time if there is a direct hurricane strike
from a major hurricane.
ï‚· Keep at least two sets of electronically stored
files of your vital documents and parts of
documents â€“ certificates of all kinds, passport
biodata page, driverâ€™s licence, Social Security
card. Ideally, you should store one of the
back-ups in a different location but that depends
on the feasibility of such an arrangement.
ï‚· Try to keep vehicles fuelled to at least half
capacity during the peak hurricane season.
ï‚· Continues on next page
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ï‚· Continued from previous page
That could help you to avoid the
â€œmad rushâ€ to gas stations during a
storm alert. One way to do this is to
fill the vehicle and then top it up
afterwards when the fuel level drops
down to half-tank of fuel.
ï‚· Have a plan for protection of your
vehicles as best you can if a storm
strikes. Give priority to preventing
damage to the front wind screen.
This might mean parking vehicles
differently when a storm threatens.
Remember vehicles can be washed
away in floods in flood-prone areas
during hurricanes.
ï‚· Prepare the entire family intellectually,
psychologically and emotionally for what all of
you might face during the passage of a major
hurricane. Watch TV shows and videos in
advance, listen to experts when they speak and
listen to accounts of survivors. Speak with
contacts who have survived hurricane events in
other countries.
ï‚· Keep as much cash as you can manage to hold
in a secure location in your home in a place that
should be safe from damage. Remember you
might not have normal banking services for a
while if your country is hit by a major hurricane.
Do not forget where you have put the cash.
Cleaning up after a hurricane
Can be a challenge. (Photos by Fr. Bowe)
ï‚· Have a clear plan for aged, infirmed, and the
differently-abled in your family. Be clear as to
what is to be done by whom when a hurricane
threatens. Make sure enthusiasm is matched by
knowledge, competence and commitment.
ï‚· Keep a large supply of â€œjumboâ€ or lawn-size
garbage bags of the thickest gauge you can get.
If your roof is damaged you might have to put
many household and personal items in garbage
bags to protect them from the elements until
your roof can be repaired and that could take a
while because of challenges with availability of
both workmen and materials
ï‚· Keep a supply of large freezer bags in addition
ï‚· Continues on next page
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C16
ï‚· Continued from previous page
to garbage bags. These are handy for storing
papers and other documents. It is also wise to
have insulated containers of various sizes.
Those will be useful for storage as well.
ï‚· Take and keep in electronic form photographs
of your home and contents. Note the date on
which the photos were taken. That could
prove very helpful to you if you have to make
a claim for insurance. Pay particular attention
to appliances.
ï‚· Organisations should consider the use of
Cloud Technology as part their business
continuity plans. The use of Cloud Technology
would allow for easy retrieval of original
documents and restoration of system information
and data depending on the extent and
sophistication of the cloud technology in use.
Similarly, individuals should consider where
practicable, storage of important documents and
pictures in a secure Cloud arrangement.
ï‚· The COVID-19 realities that are still emerging,
suggest that a wider group of responders will be
required to deal with the twin challenges of
COVID-19 and the threat of hurricanes during
2021. Responders might even be required for
new activities and tasks. Additional and
alternative or supplementary personnel should
be identified and trained appropriately. Our
current circumstances indicate that such
contingency arrangements may now be even
more critical than at the start of the COVID-19
crisis in 2020.
ï‚· Ensure that each member of the family has at
least one pair of good-fitting, comfortable work
shoes. Check the shoes periodically because â€œdry
rotâ€ can set it and cause the soles to separate
Take and keep in electronic form photographs of your home
and contents; note the date on which the photos were taken.
(Photo by Fr. Bowe)
from the shoes if they are not worn often.
Replace or repair them if that happens. Put on
those shoes with a good pair of thick socks if you
get to a Hurricane Warning event and a strike is
considered imminent.
ï‚· Keep a good, water-proof toolkit and high-quality
tools from reputable manufacturers. Good quality
tools are always worth the investment. Make
sure you have a hammer, different types of
pliers and vice grips, various sizes and types of
screwdrivers, wrenches and saws. Keep nails,
screws and bolts of various sizes. Keep twine and
water-resistant tape and rope of various sizes.
You might have to use and replace those every
few years.
ï‚· It usually takes longer to prepare the yard,
especially the backyard, than most of us think.
Securing loose and very light-weight items is a
big task. Start the job early if it is necessary to
do it.
ï‚· Continues on next page
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ï‚· Continued from previous page
Prepare the entire family intellectually, psychologically and emotionally for what all of you might face during the
passage of a major hurricane. (Photo by Fr. Bowe)
appliances before the power is turned off at the
mains by your electricity provider.
ï‚· Create plans for emergency toilet arrangements
(I will spare your sensitivities here) but know
what your plan A, plan B and plan C will be.
Remember in the aftermath of a major hurricane
strike you might not have pipe-borne water for
weeks. Potable water should be kept for drinking
in such situations. Comply with the advice health
experts give.
ï‚· If you live in a hurricane-prone zone, invest
incrementally each season in supplies and tools
such as shovels, hoes, spades, yard brooms,
tarpaulins and large sheets of durable plastic.
Store these items carefully. If you can, put them
in an appropriate storage location that does not
hamper everyday life and living.
ï‚· Pay close attention to personal care products
and supplies such as diapers for children and
adults (if needed), feminine hygiene supplies,
baby and adult wipes, garbage bags, toilet
paper and paper towels. Try to keep adequate
supplies for the numbers in your family based on
your spending power. They can be used in
rotation after the end of the season.
ï‚· Protect your large electronic appliances such as
TVs, microwaves, entertainment centres, stereos
and desktop computers. If you protect them with
secure water-proof coverings most of them
survive hurricane conditions well provided that
they are covered and then not left sitting in
water. Remember that you should unplug such
The list of items that I have provided and described
above might seem imposing, expensive and even
esoteric to some people. You might also wonder
about storage space and if you will remember all
that you have acquired for hurricane preparations
and how to use them. My advice is the following:
ï‚· Develop an actual checklist of these items that
the family can review in June and December of
each year.
ï‚· Be prudent in your purchases by identifying the
products that save life or promote health and
security. Always purchase those items first.
ï‚· Maintain your tools and equipment. Proper
maintenance extends their useful life for many
years.
ï‚· Put a premium on quality â€“ always look for
authentic and genuinely well-known brands.
Hurricane preparedness is not the time to
experiment with products of questionable
quality.
ï‚· When retrofitting your home, for example with
storm shutters or hurricane straps, get expert
advice. Plan the work in phases, in that way
you will be able spend money in phases
according to your financial capacity.
ï‚· Consider informal agreements with close
neighbours or relatives who live close by. In
that way, not everyone might need to purchase
a wheelbarrow. If you are a good carpenter,
assist someone who is a good plumber on the
basis of reciprocity.
×‰	Ú 7cassandra://6wTeDo28UcKnlpUOjxyJyh9fSICpW4HCKdwuGEfKK0kÍ3(Í`ÌÆÍ ×`¶5X<Dœh÷5÷×`¶5X<Dœh÷5öÍøÍ(×‘C’×˜š   ÍüÍ(u×‰œ”×‰	Ú 7cassandra://s4y-9T3RiaXOCoYkWMjmKfCB4E-4vXQz1Uoh05ilz54Î ºÆÍ`ÍóÍ²×‰	Ú 7cassandra://8oawITI5gTHtzeCqV30HaytL7Ojt9MPlWehU4Jj3YSsÍ¤*Í`ÍsÍà×‰	Ú 7cassandra://_NZUz3Z75bpzgkU5mM-HkQbWCBOUgU4HYBislgGEMlwÍ1Í`ÌÆÍ ×‰	Ú 7cassandra://1RBClCMmC3n29vXvdkTfeEGJCXOGt-o2dBgFHcbJntMÎ ŒãÍÜÍ Í]Íð×`¶5]<Dœh÷6“×˜š Íü ÍüÍ(u×‰œ”×‰	Ú 7cassandra://YZpttzQX6MXL9W132VV60TN4CtLwrB_3EIKbBnwD5l0Î (¿Í` ÍóÍ²×‰	Ú 7cassandra://at5Dume3KMG7uxudrqmrDIRrMndX-kXbR45npUAuZPUÍ©‘Í`ÍsÍà×‰	Ú 7cassandra://g-3oG6SP-pU6EepDOaNR5p1iyrow2Tlohfhg2kLymcQÍ/jÍ`ÌÆÍ ×‰	Ú 7cassandra://5CF9SKj1xgaNjiLJvn1HHhhfMOncCzgZCOhmeH0NECQÎ ÖÍÍ Í]Íð×`¶5]<Dœh÷6”’× ×`¶5]<Dœh÷6‘ Í%Í5Ìê9×‰HÚ 5https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IERS_Reference_MeridianG××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ× ×`¶5]<Dœh÷6’ Í£ÍnÌ¼9×‰HÚ 8https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_meridian_(Greenwich)G××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ×‰EÚ$18
A
globally accepted system that uses
latitude and longitude coordinates allows
us to locate any place on the earthâ€™s
surface. Latitude measures locations on the globe
that are north and south of the Equator. The
measurements are stated in degrees, minutes
and seconds. The highest numerical readings for
latitude are ninety degrees North (90Â°N) and
ninety degrees South (90Â° S). The Equator is
zero degrees (0Â°). The Equator divides maps of
the earth into Northern and Southern
hemispheres. When lines of latitude are shown on
a map, a globe or a graphic of the earth, they are
displayed as parallel lines with the Equator and
they are equidistant. One degree of Latitude is
equivalent to 69 miles. There are small variations
at the Equator and the Poles. The variations have
been calculated and are used when required.
Longitude measures locations east and west of the
Prime Meridian. In 1884 it was agreed that the
Prime Meridian identified a location in Greenwich,
London, England. You should note that the more
widely used meridian in more modern times is
the IERS Reference Meridian.
The International Reference Meridian (IERS) was
devised from the Greenwich Meridian but it is
slightly different. The difference between both
exists because of variations between astronomical
ï‚· Continues on next page
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ï‚· Continued from previous page
and geodetic coordinates. Those differences are
important in this the age of satellite imagery.
Lines of longitude are also stated in degrees,
minutes and seconds. Longitude is measured in
degrees that extend both east and west of the
Prime Meridian to a maximum of one hundred and
eighty degrees East and West (180Â° E or WÂ°). The
Prime Meridian is zero (0Â°) degrees. It divides
maps of the world into the Eastern and the
Western hemisphere. On a map, the lines of
Longitude meet at the North and South Poles. At
the Equator one degree of Longitude is equivalent
to 69 miles but only at the Equator. At forty
degrees (40Â°) North or South the distance is 53
miles. That distance becomes smaller and smaller
until the longitude lines meet at the Poles on a map
or a globe.
Lines of Longitude are known
as meridians and not parallels
as the lines of Latitude are. It
is the intersection of the values
for latitude and longitude that
give a unique position for a
specific location. There are now
APPS that give us locations and
calculate distances.
Locations of storms or
hurricanes are given in terms
of latitude or longitude for the
centre of the system, e.g.
seventeen degrees North and
sixty degrees West. (17Â° N 60Â°
W). That information makes it
possible to track the
movement of the system on a
map or follow it on
technology-driven schematics
and graphics.
When you know the location of
your country (a CARICAD
member state for example) in
latitude and longitude you can
get the earliest indication of
the proximity of your country
to likely effects from the
Anguilla
Antigua & Barbuda
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
British Virgin Islands
Dominica
Grenada
Guyana
Jamaica
Montserrat
St. Kitts & Nevis
Saint Lucia
St. Vincent & the
Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad & Tobago
Turks and Caicos Islands
storm. Additionally, you will get a clearer picture by
examining the predicted, projected path of the
system as given in weather reports. Remember
that the centre of the hurricane could be anywhere
in the â€œcone of uncertaintyâ€™ and there is about a 30
per cent chance that the system will also travel
outside the cone. You must be mindful that a
hurricane can be hundreds of miles across and
hurricane conditions might extend for a hundred
miles or more from the centre.
We have prepared the table below for your
information and convenience. It shows the latitude
and longitude of all CARICAD member states.
Remember that the precise location within a
multi-island state for a particular island in that
state or territory could be slightly different from
the figures shown.
ï‚· Continues on next page
COUNTRY/TERRITORY
LATITUDE IN
DEGREES NORTH
18. 22 N
17. 06
25. 33
13.19
17.18
18.42
15.41
12.11
04.86
18.10
16.74
17.35
13.90
12.98
3.91
10.69
21.69
LONGITUDE IN
DEGREES WEST
63.06 W
61.79
77.39
59.54
88.49
64.64
61.37
61.67
58.93
77.29
62.18
62.78
60.97
61.28
56.02
61.22
71.79
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The Bahamas is the most northerly CARICAD member state and suffered significant damage in 2019. (Photo by Fr. Bowe)
ï‚· Continued from
previous page
Further, in geographically large
member states such as Guyana,
Suriname and Belize the values
will be different for different
locations within the country.
Note that The Bahamas is the
most northerly CARICAD member
state, Suriname is the most
southerly, Barbados is the most
easterly and Belize is the most
westerly.
In earlier years there was a
tradition of identifying a
â€˜Hurricane Beltâ€™ in the Atlantic
Basin.
It encompassed the northern part
of the Caribbean Sea as well as
the Gulf of Mexico. It also included
Florida and the Florida Keys. There is now a
disinclination to consider the Hurricane belt as
having statistical certitude. It used to be said that
Grenada was outside the Hurricane Belt but that
kind thinking started to change when
Grenada was devastated by a major hurricane â€”
Ivan in 2004. It is worth remembering that in 1955
Hurricane Janet, a category 5 hurricane, caused
widespread damage and several deaths in Barbados
and the Grenadines that are often considered to be
outside the zone of likeliest hurricane impact.
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Property
destruction in
The Bahamas.
(Photo by Fr. Bowe)
O
n March 31st, 2021 five National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
scientists â€” Thomas R. Knutson, Maya V.
Chung, Gabe Vecchi, Jingru Sun, Tsung-Lin Hsieh
and Adam J. P. Smith â€” wrote a paper entitled,
Climate Change is Probably Increasing the
Intensity of Tropical Cyclones, and reached several
important conclusions that we have reproduced
here in our newsletter.
â€œWarming of the surface ocean from
anthropogenic (human-induced) climate
change is likely fuelling more powerful
Tropical Cyclones (TCs). The destructive
power of individual TCs through flooding is
amplified by rising sea level, which very likely
has a substantial contribution at the global
scale from anthropogenic climate change. In
addition, TC precipitation rates are projected
to increase due to enhanced atmospheric
moisture associated with anthropogenic global
warming.
ï‚· Warming of the surface ocean from
human-induced climate change is likely
fuelling more powerful tropical cyclones (TCs).
ï‚· The destructive power of individual TCs
through flooding is amplified by rising sea
level, which very likely has a substantial
contribution at the global scale from
anthropogenic climate change.
ï‚· TC precipitation rates are projected to
increase due to enhanced atmospheric
moisture associated with anthropogenic global
warming.
ï‚· The proportion of Category 4 & 5 TCs has
increased, possibly due to anthropogenic
climate change, and is projected to increase
further.
ï‚· Most climate model studies project the total
number of TCs each year to decrease or
remain approximately the same.â€
The forecasts described above should encourage
serious reflection and concerted action for Climate
Change Adaptation in CARICAD member states. In
2019 the High-Level Working Group on
Inter-American Relations & Bipartisanship
published a paper entitled, The Caribbeanâ€™s
Extreme Vulnerability to Climate Change: A
Comprehensive Strategy to Build a Resilient,
Secure and Prosperous Western Hemisphere.
ï‚· Continues on next page
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¸22
ï‚· Continued from previous page
Some of the significant conclusions
put forward in the article are
reproduced because of their
cogency and relevance.
â€œThe projected consequences of
climate change for the Caribbean
have strong implications not only for todayâ€™s
economy, but also for the long-term
development of the entire region. The sectors
at higher risk include tourism, fishery,
agriculture, human settlements, and
infrastructure (UNDP, 2018). Caribbean islands
have diversified their economies away from
agriculture and moved into tourism and
services. But although tourism makes up for 15
per cent of the Caribbeanâ€™s GDP, agriculture is
still a major land-use activity. The effect of
extreme weather events on countries that
dedicate large areas of land to agricultural
production for export can be particularly
The Bahamas has a high rate of exposure to
hurricanes. (Photo by Franklyn Michael)
Although tourism makes up for 15 per cent of the
Caribbeanâ€™s GDP, agriculture is still a major land-use
activity. (Photo by Fr. Bowe)
devastating. Recent extreme weather events,
at times, have wiped out the entire sugar cane
production of Cuba, banana plantations in
Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Dominica, and
decimated nutmeg exports from Grenada.
Water temperature increase also poses a
particular challenge on Caribbean export
fisheries. In Barbados, where yellow fin tuna is
the islandâ€™s greatest fish export, as surface
temperature rises, tuna is forced to move
northward to find the oxygen it needs to live.
This means fishermen must move deeper to
find high quality tuna, adding fuel costs in the
sector, but most importantly raising territorial
implications in the Caribbean. The same goes
for flying fish. In a typical year, flying fish
account for around 65 per cent of the total fish
catch in Barbados, according to the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United
Nations. But as flooding increases, changing
the direction of surface water current, fishers
are forced to travel farther into the ocean
going as far as 500 km away from Barbados,
reducing catches of an important staple for
local residents (St. Lucia Times, 2019). The
consequences of inaction also paint a
devastating picture for future health and
wellbeing. Between 2001 and 2009 there were
211,937 registered cases of dengue fever in
the Caribbean. Climate change is expected to
increase dengue fever transmission by 300
percent, as increased temperature reduces
parasitesâ€™ incubation time. Additionally, if
climate change is not addressed today,
between 2030 and 2050, climate change is
expected to cause approximately 250,000
additional deaths per year from malnutrition,
malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress (ECLAC
2011 and Sealy, H. 2018).
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¨23
THE NAMES FOR THE 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON â€“ JUNE 1 â€“ NOVEMBER 30
T
he World Meteorological Organization (WMO) maintains lists of
hurricanes for each of the tropical cyclone prone areas of the world. The
storms and hurricanes are referred to as Tropical Cyclones. The Atlantic
Basin includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. This action is in
keeping with a convention that was agreed to in 1950 to formally name
Atlantic hurricanes. A list was originally kept by the National Hurricane Centre
(NHC) in the USA. The responsibility was passed to the WMO in 1953.
The list of names for the 2021 season comprises 21 alternating names of men
and women. The names of men were not included until 1979. The list is
recycled in the sixth year. This means that for example a list used in 2019 is
recycled in 2025. In cases in which storms occur in December they are given
names from the list for the current season.
On the other hand, storms which occur very early in a year are given names
from the next seasonâ€™s list. Prior to 2021 whenever there was a need for more
than 21 names in a season, the Greek alphabet was used as it was in 2005 and
2020. The supplementary Greek alphabet list was adopted as a solution to a
challenge that emerges when there are more than 21 named storms in a
single Atlantic Hurricane Season. This can occur because names for storms
are not created with the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z. The Hurricane Committee
of the WMO decided recently that it would dispense with the system of using
Greek alphabet letters as supplementary names for hurricanes.
Storm names are retired from the list when they are especially deadly or
destructive. When the names are retired we are assured that any reference
made later on can only be to those particular storms or hurricanes and not a
predecessor or successor system with the same name. However, because
retirement only occurs with the really destructive systems the names of
storms that do little or no damage might be repeated. In that regard four
names were removed from the rotating list after the 2020 season. The
names removed were Dorian, Laura and the Greek names of Eta and Iota.
They caused death and/or significant damage somewhere in the hemisphere.
The Hurricane Committee has decided that Dorian will be replaced by Dexter,
and Laura by Leah.
It should be noted that although there was a lobby to officially start the
Hurricane season in May instead of June, the start of the season will remain
June 1.
The supplemental names for 2021 are: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn,
Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla,
Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.
ï‚· Continues on next page
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Flooding caused by
Hurricane Tomas in
central Castries,
Saint Lucia.
ï‚· Continued from previous page
This is the list of primary Atlantic Hurricane names for 2022-2026:
2022
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
2023
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harold
Idalia
Jose
Katia
Lee
Margot
Nigel
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
2024
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
2025
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
2026
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Leah
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
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by Franklyn Michael
I
have found that one of the most challenging of the issues in helping to prepare communities for the
effects of hurricanes is that there is a tendency to focus on the features of the storms themselves
and not on the effects that we have to deal with after. In that regard I have developed the concept
of the Seven Ds (7Ds) of Disaster and applied it to hurricanes. The graphic below displays the concept:
DEATH
The graphic starts with death. Hurricanes have been
responsible for deaths. It must be stated that most
of the deaths caused by hurricanes happen
because of flooding and storm surge at the coastline
or inland flooding. It is seldom that many deaths are
directly caused by the force of the wind. It now
appears that our CARICAD member states have
become increasing proficient at saving lives during
hurricanes. The number of deaths recorded even
after a major hurricane is usually low (thankfully).
DAMAGE
Hurricanes cause extensive damage. The damage
occurs across all sectors in the natural and built
environments. All economic sectors, the public,
social and community sectors suffer damage. The
damage can result from a combination of strong
winds, heavy rains, landslides and floods. Secondary
damage may occur from exposure to the elements
after the initial hurricane impact. The list of areas
where damage can occur is as broad as human
everyday living experience:
ï‚· Coastlines, beaches and reefs
ï‚· Forests and vegetation
ï‚· Houses and household appliances, furniture and
equipment
ï‚· Personal items â€“ clothing, mementos
ï‚· Commercial buildings and services
ï‚· Social infrastructure â€“ hospitals and clinics,
Schools and other institutions of learning
ï‚· Office complexes
ï‚· Airports and ports
ï‚· Roads
ï‚· Bridges
ï‚· Boats â€“ commercial and pleasure
ï‚· Vehicles
ï‚· Continues on next page
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×`¶5X<Dœh÷6	ÍøÍ(×‘C’×˜š   ÍüÍ(u×‰œ”×‰	Ú 7cassandra://htuhXGW9KHLGzwDQ8p8urbltXGN7xy4x-FoMHy7En2cÎ ÏÁÍ`ÍóÍ²×‰	Ú 7cassandra://7Sdvc8h_UxdhwW-DpfCbx_cY0-q4peqF0_pecUtoVpcÍ ]Í`ÍsÍà×‰	Ú 7cassandra://oxG22iHbDPhSj0oXNk9tOqAIMSDG_ndy43oNlJPWYaoÍ0°Í`ÌÆÍ ×‰	Ú 7cassandra://69B5ZalOAQRNTr6_dXNzxOkxXwxPJ28EEkq-6voMwLUÎ ¢XÍTÍ Í]Íð×`¶5`<Dœh÷6©×˜š Íü ÍüÍ(u×‰œ”×‰	Ú 7cassandra://spG-VUJS1aE5wSUtnAibOY4si9DFKSgAYiOfGJjUF3MÎ |tÍ`ÍóÍ²×‰	Ú 7cassandra://0R9VFg-kb0PCMqJeh4AnlHE4vhIvAA0LkGbBx_Eg_Z0Í³ÈÍ`ÍsÍà×‰	Ú 7cassandra://lYJOFeuXlW0rPgXEFJFQTUcTxTd9PXpmw-rGY0vaLvsÍ4FÍ`ÌÆÍ ×‰	Ú 7cassandra://m1m9mM1vIm43Ve24_GG8NTRGMu0MPL1TOEQ7Zm_uFhcÎ ïáÍTÍ Í]Íð×`¶5`<Dœh÷6ª×‰EÚÆ26
One of the greatest challenges of Recovery management after a
hurricane is the challenge of replacing what has been totally lost
or otherwise destroyed.
ï‚· Continued from previous page
DESTRUCTION
It is important to recall that anything that can be
damaged by a hurricane can also be destroyed by
a hurricane if the forces are strong enough. One
of the greatest challenges of Recovery
management after a hurricane is that of replacing
what has been totally lost or otherwise destroyed.
This is particularly important in relation to critical
facilities such as hospitals and airports. It is also
pivotal in social recovery if many houses and
schools are completely destroyed in a hurricane
event.
The mere existence of a hazard does not
automatically or immediately result in a disaster.
There tends to be a progression from the
appearance of a hazard to the negative effects
that may culminate in an emergency, a crisis or a
disaster. Overall vulnerability is a function of the
relationship between hazards and level of risk.
DISRUPTION
A major hurricane impact results in disruption.
The disruption relates primarily to services.
Services provided by all sectors are usually
suspended because the situation must be
assessed and decisions taken as to how best to
resume services. This often takes time. It
sometimes affects critical utilities and other
essential services.
DELAY
Delays are common with hurricane impacts.
Entities might not have been directly damaged but
because of disruptions that have taken place in
other areas of the economy, then delays arise. A
school might not have undergone serious damage
but if there is extensive damage to the water
system, the school cannot resume classes.
ï‚· Continues on next page
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ï‚· Continued from previous page
DISORDER
Hurricanes can create disorder in several ways.
The disorder can result from the destruction,
damage and delay alluded to before. Additionally,
disorder can result from actions by small groups of
people engaging in nefarious activities such as
looting or larceny.
There is growing concern that societal disorder
after a hurricane strike is becoming a greater
challenge than it was in previous decades. There
have been situations in which internal security
proved to be a genuine problem to the degree that
regional military forces had to be sent into
countries to help. We need to plan and prepare
for this apparent threat to order and good
governance.
DESPAIR
There is an increasing realisation that major
hurricanes can create a sense of despair that
affects individuals, families and communities.
There is also the realisation that the
socio/economic realities of our region indicate that
the despair is often greater among women
because of their living circumstances. This is an
area in which there are increasingly strident calls
for preventive and corrective action. A major
hurricane impact results in disruption which relates
primarily to utility services.
Living through a major hurricane impact is
stressful for everyone. We should accept that as
critical as physical survival is for all, we must also
consider what some people might go through after
the event. Those who might have lost relatives,
neighbours or loved ones or who received major
injuries will be under great stress for extended
periods. Some might have lost one of their biggest
investments â€” their homes. Additionally, the social
and economic dislocation will result in people
becoming unemployed, partially employed or
losing their accommodation and access to
educational facilitates. Some people might find
themselves living in shelters for a long time. The
psycho-social consequences for many people are
an important part of the Response and Recovery
management canvas and should be treated as
such.
Major hurricanes can create a sense of despair that affects
individuals, families and communities.
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Many places were damaged by the wind in The Bahamas with the passage of Hurricane Dorian. (Aerial shot by Fr. Bowe)
by Franklyn Michael
T
he principal difference in the categorisation
of a Hurricane over a Tropical Storm is the
sustained wind speed. A storm has sustained
wind speeds that are between 39 and 73 miles per
hour (mph). Hurricanes have wind speeds that may
range from 74 miles per hour to more than 160
mph. Both storms and hurricanes can have wind
gusts that are higher than the sustained winds. In
general terms, hurricane winds are not the
hurricane-generated hazard that cause the highest
numbers of fatalities. However, the winds do cause
fatalities and extensive damage. It is useful to
think of the effects of hurricane winds in two
distinct but related categories â€” direct and indirect
effects.
DIRECT EFFECTS OF WIND DAMAGE
Hurricane winds can do extensive damage by the
sheer physical force of the winds. This happens
when trees are uprooted, electrical poles toppled
and perimeter fences flattened. The direct effects
of wind damage could be millions of dollars in each
event. In 2017 colleagues and friends in the British
Virgin Islands (BVI) described scenes like the
following:
ïƒ  Yachts removed from marinas and deposited
in main roads
ïƒ  Cars lifted unto porches
ïƒ  Roofs deposited in neighbouring front yards
ïƒ  Washers and dryers removed from verandas
and put into the streets
ïƒ  Cutlery from one apartment being blown into
another
ïƒ  Windows shattered by the force of the wind
alone
In 2004 in Grenada there was a famous story
about a house that had â€œcrossed the roadâ€ in a
coastal village due to Hurricane Ivan.
Hurricane winds can also damage buildings directly
because of the force of pressure differentials. The
pressure exerted by the wind on one side of a
building or on the roof might be greater than on
another side of the building. In a major hurricane
that difference can be so great that in a manner of
speaking the building almost explodes. Buildings
that have roofs made of materials other than concrete
with a very low pitch are particularly
susceptible to this form of damage. The changes in
force and pressure can be particularly marked if
the eye of the storm passes over or near a
ï‚· Continues on next page
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ï‚· Continued from previous page
particular location. In Hurricane
Hugo in Montserrat in 1989, I
can recall my ears â€œpoppedâ€
near the time of the passage of
the eye of the storm.
INDIRECT EFFECTS OF
WIND DAMAGE
The indirect effects of hurricanes can be thought of
as both a companion to and largely a consequence
of the direct effects. The force of the wind can
topple huge trees. When those trees fall, if they fall
on a house or vehicle, they can do great damage.
Sadly, there have been cases where people have
been killed when trees fall on houses and vehicles.
(Photo by Franklyn Michael)
relevant, modernised, laws and regulations
ï‚· The training that is formally provided in
construction methods should be standardised to
ensure the acquisition of skills and techniques
related to hazards
One of the most dramatic features of a major
hurricane is the nature and extent of flying debris.
Debris driven by hurricane force winds can do
extensive damage. Portions of roofs, tree branches,
garbage cans, outdoor furniture and construction
debris can become truly lethal missiles on the winds
of a major hurricane.
One of the ways in which major hurricanes create
indirect damage is through the impact of
â€œhorizontal rainâ€. If you have not experienced it,
you might find it hard to believe. The force of the
winds is enough to send the rain forward parallel
with the ground. Most buildings, especially houses
are designed for normal rain that falls vertically;
horizontal rain can cause extensive interior
flooding.
CREATING RESILIENCE TO WINDS
ï‚· Countries should have cohesive policies for
Disaster Risk Reduction in relation to all
hazards particularly land zoning and physical
planning
ï‚· All our member states should work to create or
revise their building codes and ensure that the
appropriate resistance requirements for wind
damage are included along with provisions for
all major hazards
ï‚· Rigorous standards should be introduced and
maintained for construction materials to
promote resistance to all hurricane hazards.
The standards should be backed up with
ï‚· The mechanisms that are used for building
inspection should be vigorously implemented in
all sectors
It is important that we accept hurricanes as a part
of the reality of Caribbean life that requires human
behavioural change to promote higher levels of
resilience. Experts in some quarters are predicting
that hurricanes might become more powerful in the
years ahead. Should that forecast prove to be
accurate then we must bear the following in mind.
In hurricanes, the wind force increases
exponentially. This means that in a hurricane that is
twenty five miles per hour (25 mph) stronger, the
force of the winds will be seventy three per cent
(73%) greater.
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5
rating based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed.
This scale estimates potential property damage.
Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are
considered major hurricanes because of their
potential for significant loss of life and damage.
Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous,
however, and require preventative measures. In
the western North Pacific, the term "super typhoon"
is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds
exceeding 150 mph. Note that all winds are using
the U.S. 1-minute average.
SOURCE: Quoted directly from the National Hurricane Centre (NHC)
https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson
ï‚· Continues on next page
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CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Very dangerous winds will produce some
damage: Well-constructed framed homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and
gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive
damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to
several days. Irene of 1999, Katrina of 2005, and several others were Category One hurricanes
at landfall in South Florida.
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds will cause
extensive damage: Well-constructed framed homes could sustain major roof and siding
damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads.
Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to
weeks. Frances of 2004 was a Category Two when it hit just north of Palm Beach County, along
with at least 10 other hurricanes which have struck South Florida since 1894.
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr). Devastating damage will occur: Well-built
framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees
will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable
for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929,
1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King
of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017.
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr). Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built
framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some
exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees
and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.
Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The 1888, 1900, 1919, 1926 Great
Miami, 1928 Lake Okeechobee/Palm Beach, 1947, Donna of 1960 made landfall in South Florida
as Category Four hurricanes.
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher). Catastrophic damage will
occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall
collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for
weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. The Keys
Hurricane of 1935 and Andrew of 1992 made landfall in South Florida as Category Five
hurricanes.
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The British Virgin Islands were severely damaged by storms and
hurricanes in 2017. (Photo by Franklyn Michael)
SUGGESTIONS FOR PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGERS
P
reparing for hurricanes in CARICAD member
states must be done against a backdrop that
is different from locations on the mainland of
the United States such as Florida or the Carolinas:
ïƒ  Most member states are economically
dependent on tourism. The numbers of tourists
on any given day, may be many thousands in a
non-COVID-19 setting
ïƒ  Evacuation off islands by road is impossible
ïƒ  Regional travel will most likely be suspended in
the smallest of the member states even before
winds get to tropical storm strength
ïƒ  Ferry services might have to be suspended
because of difficult docking conditions
ïƒ  Critical facilities such as hospitals, ports and
airports are few
ïƒ  Schools are often required for use as
emergency shelters
ïƒ  Stockpiles or stores of emergency supplies are
very limited
ïƒ  There is a heavy reliance on imported foods
especially long shelf life food liked canned and
dried goods
ïƒ  Modern house construction styles, although
making homes more salubrious, has made the
buildings more vulnerable to wind damage â€“
lengthy overhangs, lots of glass, lower pitched
roofs, limited used of hurricane straps
CARICAD suggests that all public sectors (focus of
CARICADâ€™s mandate) plan for the persistent threat
of hurricanes and the high probability of impact
somewhere in the region each year. This requires a
commitment on the part of public sector managers
and leaders to embrace preparedness as part of the
job.
It is important to be thorough and systematic
with hurricane preparedness. Make hurricane
preparedness (should really be all hazard
preparedness) a part of organisational culture.
In that regard CARICAD suggests the use of a
framework such as the BE, KNOW, HAVE and DO
Model that CARICAD previously proffered for
managing in a crisis, be adapted for hurricane
preparedness.
ï‚· Continues on next page
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SUGGESTIONS FOR PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGERS
ï‚· Continued from previous page
We are at the start of the 2021 hurricane season,
so we have adapted the original model to focus
specifically on hurricanes. It is our hope that with
continuous improvements in Preparedness, fewer
lives will be lost and few hurricane impacts will
become disasters.
ï‚· Continues on next page
FRAMEWORK FOR PUBLIC SECTOR LEADERS/MANAGERS
FOR PREPARING FOR HURRICANES
BE
Committed to leading
hurricane preparations
Conscious that in 2020 (at
least) COVID-19 protocols
must be observed while
dealing with hurricane
preparedness
An example to your staff â€“ take
the hurricane threat seriously
Be thorough â€“ plan for all
departments and units
A source of accurate
information about storm
threats
Be organised â€” Always have
relevant documents available
Emotionally competent
â€“ consider how your behaviour
and leadership styles impact
others
KNOW
How to get reliable, official,
weather information
The location of your country in
terms of latitude and longitude
HAVE
Clear priorities for your
organisationâ€™s work
Detailed, timely information
about the impact of the
hurricane on the organisation
How to communicate at all times
with staff and personnel at all
levels
The members of staff that are
likely to be overcome by fear
and stress if a threat becomes
imminent
Know the Emergency regulations
as they might apply to your
organisation and its work
Flood-prone zones in case you
and staff have to transit them
An accurate contact list for all
staff including residential
addresses. Keep a duplicate
copy with you at home
Regular briefings among staff
as you prepare for hurricanes
Tabletop or if relevant, field
exercises for your
organisation
Up-to-date contact
information for key officials
outside of your organisation
Hard copies of contact lists as
back ups
Reliable ICT systems and
hardware for use for remote
work if required
Accountability procedures in
place for use of vehicles, plant
and equipment during
emergencies
Duplicate and back-up
equipment and supplies
DO
Redeploy staff according to
both competencies and
commitment
Keep up-to-date with
official weather
information
Arrange training for staff in
critical areas of skill that
could be needed if there is
an impact
Arrange First-Aid training
for staff
Check the emergency kit in
the organisation
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××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ×‰EÚ34
SUGGESTIONS FOR PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGERS
ï‚· Continued from previous page
AFTER THE STORM: PERFORM AND TRANSFORM
In 2020 CARICAD promulgated two documents dealing with post-hurricane recovery. The first is a Model
Hurricane Recovery Strategy and the second is a Guide for Post-Hurricane Recovery for Public Sector
Managers. It is hoped that those documents will be embraced as a resource by public officers. The
documents were produced because CARICAD wishes to emphasise that when a major hurricane hits a
member state, it is the entire public sector that must respond. The framework below is therefore
intended as a quick reference for public sector managers in the event that they are required to
participate in post-hurricane Recovery.
FRAMEWORK FOR PUBLIC SECTOR LEADERS/MANAGERS
FOR POST-HURRICANE WORK
BE
Ready to work in a highly
stressful environment
Conscious that in 2020 (at
least) COVID-19 protocols must
be observed while dealing with
hurricane recovery
An example to your staff in
terms of commitment to the
long hours of demanding work
Needed for Recovery
Committed to urgency allied
with effectiveness
A source of accurate
information about Recovery
Be empathetic and very patient
with your staff
Willing to use flexible
structures such as working
groups
KNOW
How all staff have been
impacted
How to assign persons best
suited to specific tasks
How to communicate with
staff that may be under severe
psychological stress
How to manage change well
HAVE
Various means of closely following
Recovery activities
Regular briefings among staff as
Recovery work continues
A revised contact list for all staff.
Some staff may be staying with
relatives and friends or even in
shelters
Up-to-date contact information
for key officials outside of your
organisation
How to coordinate work with
strategic partners
How best to relay public
information related to your
work if authorised to do so
Hard copies of contact lists as
back-ups
Implementation matrices
Reliable ICT systems and hardware
for use for remote work if
required
Accountability procedures in place
for use of vehicles, plant and
equipment during Recovery
Suitable Personal Protective
Equipment (PPE) for personnel
who might have to perform
front-line Recovery tasks in the
organisation or provide direct
service to the public
DO
Share accurate weather information
throughout the organisation
Keep up-to-date with official
Recovery information
Arrange counselling for staff that
could be needed if there is an impact
Introduce internal staff welfare
programmes. Pay particular attention
to differently-abled staff
Plan and manage all meetings well
Monitor all Recovery work
systematically and regularly
Produce and submit progress reports
on schedule
Review, assess and realign work as
circumstances require
Evaluate results and write down
lessons for the future
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{35
There was widespread property
destruction in The Bahamas.
(Photo by Fr. Bowe)
T
he public sector has a critical role to play in
any crisis, emergency, or disaster situation.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are
perennial, pernicious hazards in the Caribbean.
The events of the 2017 hurricane season in which
at least eight of CARICADâ€™s 17 member states
were directly affected by two major hurricanes,
illustrate the importance of the public sector being
well prepared for such events in future. In the
smallest of the member states the public sector
may well be the most prominent provider of
healthcare, education, security, utility and
communication services. The public sector takes
the lead in matters of national security and public
safety. The public sector also takes the lead in
matters of welfare and public assistance. The
capacity of the public sector for post-hurricane
Response and Recovery may determine the overall
effectiveness of the Recovery effort.
CARICAD has circulated a Guide for Public Sector
Managers for Post Hurricane Recovery Planning
and Management (The Guide). It is intended as a
reference document for senior managers in the
public sectors of CARICAD member states. It is
also intended as a tool for capacity building for
staff at all levels based on CARICADâ€™s mantra for
crises â€” Prepare, Perform, Transform.
The Guide provides information from the concept
of a disaster to the priority actions and activities
that are needed to lead a Recovery effort after a
hurricane impact. It includes information that
stresses the importance of Leadership,
Management, Coordination and Teamwork to
achieve the agreed priorities. The information was
developed after extensive research and drawing
on the experience of some of the most
knowledgeable disaster managers in the Caribbean
region. We have deliberately made the
suggestions operational and practical. Many of the
practices we advocate can be attested to by our
own CARICAD team, based on our experiences.
We hope that public sector managers will continue
to keep The Guide as a constant reference during
upcoming hurricane seasons. We also hope that
they will use it to help to prepare their Ministries,
departments or agencies for the reality of
hurricanes, this year and in the years ahead. The
Guide is laid out in such a manner that managers
can refer to the sections and subsections that may
be most relevant to their needs and interests. It is
also written in a way that allows managers to copy
the pages with practical suggestions and tips as a
quick reference into a separate folder.
The CARICAD Schema for Post Hurricane Recovery
Management (2017) is also presented in this
newsletter.
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t36
â€˜Normalâ€™ in a post hurricane situation will
be more aspirational than actual for many
months. (Photo by Fr. Bowe)
W
e continue to reiterate our opinion that
the public sector is pivotal in any crisis,
emergency, or disaster situation that
happens in a CARICAD member state. Tropical
storms and hurricanes are persistent and perennial
hazards in the Caribbean. The devasting events of
the 2017 hurricane season illustrate the importance
of the entire public sector being well prepared for
such events. The CARICAD Secretariat had for many
years made the case that effective Disaster
Management in the Region was heavily dependent
on a public sector that was prepared to play a
critical leadership and management role in all
phases of the disaster cycle. The effects of
hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 made the point
forcibly for yet another time. The ongoing volcanic
events in St. Vincent and the Grenadines provide
another reminder.
The public sector includes statutory organisations,
executive agencies and government companies. In
those cases, the level of independence of the
organisations will be greater than in a hierarchical
line Ministry reporting relationship. However, the
government still maintains administrative control. In
the smallest of the member states the public sector
may well be the most prominent provider of health,
education, emergency shelter, welfare, security,
utility, environmental protection and communication
services. The level of readiness and response and
recovery capacity of the public sector may
determine the overall effectiveness of the Recovery
effort.
The transition to Recovery means an affected state
would have gone through much of the trauma and
challenge of the Response Phase and would then be
moving to â€œreturn to normalâ€ as far as possible. The
commitment to returning to normal carries with it
the understanding that the public sector will also be
attempting to return to normal. â€œNormalâ€ in a post
hurricane situation will be more aspirational than
actual for many months. Public sector managers
should recognise that despite the dramatic negative
effects of disasters that there is a potential for the
positive. Disasters create an opportunity not only to
rebuild and replace but to change and improve
(Transform). This suggests that there will be a need
for clarity of vision, knowledge, skills and a
commitment to consistent determined action to
make the changes that will lead to greater resilience
and sustainability. The â€˜Râ€ Framework for Recovery
that we provide below is intended to help public
sector managers establish clear priorities for
post hurricane Recovery.
ï‚· Continues on next page
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KEY ACTION AREAS
TASKS AND ACTIVITIES
REPAIR
REPLACE
REDUCE
RE-DEVELOP
RE-DEPLOY
REMOVE
REGAIN
RETAIN
ï‚· Schools
ï‚· Health facilities
ï‚· Other government buildings
ï‚· Coastal defences
ï‚· Docks and ancillary facilities
ï‚· Infrastructure damaged beyond repair
ï‚· Emergency Supplies
ï‚· Equipment
ï‚· Outmoded legislation
ï‚· Vulnerability to storms, hurricanes and their associated negative effects
ï‚· Vulnerability to the effects of climate change
ï‚· Community-level Disaster Management structures and procedures
ï‚· Hazard-resistant shelters
ï‚· Search and rescue capacity
ï‚· Emergency communications arrangements
ï‚· Emergency water supplies
ï‚· Early warning systems
ï‚· Emergency warehouse arrangements
ï‚· Debris removal systems
ï‚· Procedures for continuity of Government
ï‚· Procedures for protecting cultural and recreational facilities
ï‚· Retrofit selected buildings
ï‚· Critical personnel to focus on the Management of Recovery
ï‚· Financial resources to meet the costs of Recovery Projects and programmes
ï‚· Human-caused hazards that can increase vulnerability and the negative effects of Climate
Change
ï‚· A national approach to environmental protection, vulnerability reduction and Climate Change
Adaptation
ï‚· Needs-based, direct, welfare and housing assistance programmes
ï‚· A Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) approach to vulnerability reduction
ï‚· Up-to-date strategy for all phases of the Disaster Cycle
ï‚· Systems and procedures for effective mass communication and information dissemination
ï‚· Effective vector and rodent control systems
ï‚· Strategic partnerships with the non-state sectors â€“ private and voluntary
ï‚· Pre- and post-event procedures for working with local, regional and international agencies
ï‚· Gender-sensitive approaches to Recovery
ï‚· A strong-focus on psychosocial issues during Recovery
ï‚· Up-to-date comprehensive disaster legislation
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ïƒž That the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic
Hurricane Season appeared as early as May 16
ïƒž About 100 tropical waves reach the Atlantic
Ocean from the African coast each year but on
average only four become major hurricanes
ïƒž In the 2005 season there were 28 named storms
and hurricanes
ïƒž In 2020 there were 30 named storms and
hurricanes â€“ the most in any single season
ïƒž Storms and hurricanes are the only weather
hazards that are given individual, human names
ïƒž In the Atlantic Basin, storms are not given
names starting with Q,U,X,Y and Z. The Atlantic
Basin includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of
Mexico
ïƒž Menâ€™s names were not given to hurricanes until
1979. A major hurricane - Frederic appeared in
1979, it caused damage extending from the
Eastern Caribbean to Quebec in Canada
ïƒž The National Hurricane Centre in the USA
regards hurricanes that are in categories 3, 4
and 5 as major hurricanes. Their wind speeds
exceed 100 mph
ïƒž The names of four hurricanes that occurred in
2004 have all been retired. They are Charley,
Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. The names were
retired because of the loss of life and the level of
damage they created
ïƒž The Bahamas is the CARICAD member state that
has the greatest occurrence of hurricanes in
recorded history
ïƒž The strongest hurricanes tend to appear in
September but in October there might still be
major storms or hurricanes
ïƒž Slow-moving hurricanes can be very destructive.
They may cause extensive flooding
ï‚· Continues on next page
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c39
ï‚· Continued from previous page
ïƒž In 1982 there were only two hurricanes
ïƒž The six most costly Atlantic basin hurricanes to
date are: Katrina, Maria, Irma, Harvey, Sandy
and Andrew
ïƒž Hurricanes travel from east to west in the
Atlantic basin but the reverse can occur. This
has happened at least once in a hundred years.
In 1999 hurricane Lenny arose in the western
hemisphere and travelled from west to east.
That resulted in extensive damage to the
normally well protected west coasts
of many Caribbean islands
ïƒž In the Dow Jones
Island Index,
Curacao was ranked
as the Caribbean
island least likely
to be hit by a
hurricane,
followed by
Bonaire,
Grand Cayman,
Barbados and
Aruba.
ïƒž Although the Pacific
hurricane season begins
in May it ends in
November like the Atlantic
hurricane season
ïƒž The strongest hurricanes can rise to
50,000 feet into the atmosphere
ïƒž Hurricanes can be as large as 600 miles in
diameter with â€˜eyesâ€™ that are 25 miles in
diameter.
ïƒž The â€œEye Wallâ€™ of a hurricane has the strongest
winds, the heaviest and greatest turbulence.
That is why damage can be so extensive if the
eye of a hurricane passes over a small island
ïƒž A Millibar is a measurement of the air pressure.
Usually the lower the pressure the stronger the
hurricane. The Website Ask Tom Why says: The
three Atlantic Basin hurricanes (all Category 5)
with the lowest pressures on record are Wilma
(Oct. 19, 2005, with 882 millibars or 26.05
inches of mercury), Gilbert (Sept. 14, 1988, 888
millibars or 26.22 inches) and the Labour Day
Hurricane (Sept. 2, 1935, 892 millibars or 26.35
inches)
ïƒž The name hurricane is believed to be an
adaptation of the Taino Native American word.
Many experts say the Taino word Huracan only
meant "storm". Additionally some researchers
suggest that it also referred to a storm god or an
evil spirit
ïƒž A Knot is a measure of
speed. It is one nautical mile
per hour. It is slightly
longer that a
statute mile. You can
convert Knots per hour
to miles per hour by
multiplying the figure
by 1.15
ïƒž The â€œAll Clearâ€
after the passage of a
hurricane is an official
declaration that the
direct threat from a
hurricane is over.
Nowadays activities are
usually pashed back into
normalcy. This is likely to be
the case in 2020 with COVID-19
ïƒž Storm surges have been responsible for more
fatalities in hurricanes than the winds
ïƒž A category 5 hurricane can generate a storm
surge of 20 feet or more
ïƒž Water conducts electricity well so walking
through water with downed, energised cables is
very dangerous
ïƒž The records show that at least 10 hurricanes
have occurred in December in the Atlantic Basin
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P
ost hurricane Recovery is a protracted,
multidimensional, multi-sectoral,
multi-component, multi-agency effort to
restore a community affected by a hurricane to an
acceptable level of normalcy. It is intended not
only to restore life as it was but to make the
community more resilient to hazards of all kinds in
future. It is costly and fraught with conflict and
misunderstanding. It is a complex process that is
sometimes difficult to grasp in its entirety.
When there is a common understanding of the
conceptual framework for Recovery there is less
misunderstanding and confusion and much more
collaboration, coordination and cooperation.
That common understanding is critical for all key
actors in the process. Public sector managers are
the usual leaders of the process in a structural
setting such as a Recovery Task Force.
The CARICAD Schema for Post Hurricane Recovery
Management was developed to provide as a
â€œsingle-page viewâ€ a schematic that shows the
process in logical, connected relationships of role,
structure, systems, skills, outputs and deliverables.
The CARICAD Schema illustrates the following:
ï‚· There is a long sequence of important
planning, coordination, management,
leadership and implementation activities that
are required after a hurricane impact
ï‚· Hurricane Recovery often takes several years
ï‚· The process is essentially sequential but there
is overlap and iteration; strategies and plans
will probably have to be changed several times
ï‚· Many organisations, agencies and
stakeholders are involved
ï‚· A journey of successful Recovery leads to
greater Resilience
ï‚· Good information and data management are a
critical components of Recovery
ï‚· There are several tiers of oversight in
Recovery management
ï‚· A Recovery Task force should have an
end-date for its work
ï‚· External experts should have an end-date for
their work
ï‚· Successful Recovery is likely to occur in
phases â€“ early, short and medium-term and
long-term
The Bahamas
is the CARICAD
member state that
has the greatest
occurrence of
hurricanes in
recorded history.
(Photo by Fr. Bowe)
CARICAD has developed and recently promulgated
a comprehensive template as Model Recovery
Strategy for Member States. Both the schema
shown on the next page and that template were
inspired by and rooted in work done by CARICAD in
2017/18 with the Government and people of the
Turks and Caicos Islands in developing that
territoryâ€™s Post-hurricane Recovery Strategy.
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C
ARICAD encourages you to become familiar with the specific terms that are used in official
circles in relation to tropical storms and hurricanes. The more familiar you are with the
meanings of the terms, the more confident you will be with your own Preparedness and the
more likely you will be to help others to prepare. The following are among those terms:
SOURCE â€“ National Hurricane Centre â€“ USA
Advisory:
Official information issued by tropical cyclone
warning centres describing all tropical cyclone
watches and warnings in effect along with details
concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and
movement, and precautions that should be taken.
Advisories are also issued to describe: (a) tropical
cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings
and (b) subtropical cyclones. They are usually
issued every six hours. Special advisories are
issued when there is a significant change in
storm-related weather conditions.
Centre (Center):
Generally speaking, the vertical axis of a tropical
cyclone, usually defined by the location of
minimum wind or minimum pressure. The
cyclone centre position can vary with altitude.
Cyclone:
An atmospheric closed circulation rotating
counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere
and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
Eye:
The roughly circular area of comparatively light
winds that encompasses the centre of a severe
tropical cyclone. The eye is either completely or
partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud.
Eyewall/Wall Cloud:
An organised band or ring of cumulonimbus clouds
that surround the eye, or light-wind canter of a
tropical cyclone. Eyewall and wall cloud are used
synonymously.
Gale Warning:
A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in
the range 34 kit (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 47 knots
(54 mph or 87 km/hr) inclusive, either predicted or
occurring and not directly associated with tropical
cyclones.
High Wind Warning:
A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute
average surface winds of 35 knots (40 mph or 64
km/hr) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or
winds gusting to 50 knots (58 mph or 93 km/hr)
or greater regardless of duration that are either
expected or observed over land.
Hurricane/Typhoon:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained
surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is
64 knots (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. The
term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere
tropical cyclones east of the International Dateline
to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is
used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the
Equator west of the International Dateline.
Hurricane Season:
The portion of the year having a relatively high
incidence of hurricanes. The hurricane season in
the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico runs
from June 1 to November 30. The hurricane season
in the Eastern Pacific basin runs from May 15 to
November 30. The hurricane season in the Central
Pacific basin runs from June 1 to November 30.
Hurricane Warning:
A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or
119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane
are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours
or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect
when dangerously high water or a combination of
dangerously high water and exceptionally high
waves continue, even though winds may be less
than hurricane force.
ï‚· Continues on next page
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ï‚· Continued from previous page
Hurricane Watch:
An announcement for specific coastal areas that
hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours.
Indirect Hit:
Generally refers to locations that do not experience
a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do
experience hurricane force winds (either sustained
or gusts) or tides of at least four feet above
normal.
Landfall:
The intersection of the surface centre of a tropical
cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest
winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely
at the centre, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest
winds to be experienced over land even if landfall
does not occur.
Major Hurricane:
A hurricane that is classified as Category 3 or
higher.
Storm Surge:
An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a
hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height
is the difference between the observed level of the
sea surface and the level that would have occurred
in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is
usually estimated by subtracting the normal or
astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide.
Storm Warning:
A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of
48 knots t (55 mph or 88 km/hr) or greater,
predicted or occurring, not directly associated with
tropical cyclones.
Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained
surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute
average) is 33 knots (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
Tropical Disturbance:
A discrete tropical weather system of apparently
organised convection â€” generally 100 to 300
nautical miles in diameter â€” originating in the
tropics or subtropics, having a non-frontal
migratory character, and maintaining its identity for
24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated
with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.
Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained
surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute
average) ranges from 34 knots (39 mph or 63 km/
hr) to 63 knots (73 mph or 118 km/hr).
Tropical Storm Warning:
A warning that sustained winds within the range of
34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr)
associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a
specified coastal area within 24 hours or less.
Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement for specific coastal areas that
tropical storm conditions are possible within 36
hours.
Tropical Wave:
A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the
trade-wind easterlies. The wave may reach
maximum amplitude in the lower middle
troposphere.
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 ÍBÌåÍC9×‰Hºhttps://metservice.gov.jm/G××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ× ×`¶5d<Dœh÷7 ÍBÍÍX9×‰H³https://met.gov.lc/G××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ× ×`¶5d<Dœh÷7 ÍBÍ<Í§9×‰H½https://www.metoffice.gov.tt/G××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ× ×`¶5d<Dœh÷7 ÍBÍhÍ9×‰H¹https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/G××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ× ×`¶5d<Dœh÷7 ÍBÍ”Ì§9×‰H¶http://www.weather.comG××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ× ×`¶5d<Dœh÷7 ÍBÍ¿ÌÞ9×‰HÚ %http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/G××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ× ×`¶5d<Dœh÷7 ÍBÍëÍQ9×‰H¹https://public.wmo.int/enG××ÒÔÔÔrÒïïïÌ× ×`¶5e<Dœh÷7 ÍÍÒ_
9×H¶http://www.caricad.net××Ðˆ× ×`¶5e<Dœh÷7 ÍpÍÒr
9×Hºmailto:caricad@caricad.net××Ðˆ×‰EÚ144
ï‚· Antigua & Barbuda Meteorological Services
ï‚· Bahamas Meteorology Department
ï‚· Barbados Weather
ï‚· Barbados Weather on Yahoo
ï‚· Barbados Weather at CDEMA
ï‚· National Meteorological Service of Belize
ï‚· CDEMA
ï‚· Department of Emergency Management (DEM)
Barbados
ï‚· Grenada Meteorological Office
ï‚· Meteorological Service of Jamaica
ï‚· Saint Lucia Meteorological Services
ï‚· Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
ï‚· NATIONAL Hurricane Centre
ï‚· Weather Channel
ï‚· Weather Underground
ï‚· World Meteorological Organization
NOTE TO READERS
The information provided in this newsletter is set in the
context of CARICADâ€™S Memorandum of Understanding
(MOU) with CDEMA. The MOU was signed in 2016.
It is stated in the Rationale that both CARICAD and CDEMA
have the ultimate aim of facilitating and supporting
sustainable development and on improving capacity within
member states. The two institutions also agreed to continue
joint efforts to mainstream Disaster Risk Reduction.
Therefore, the contents of this newsletter are not intended
to replace, duplicate or supplant any information provided
by CDEMA or the National Disaster Offices of CARICAD
member states. It is intended to reinforce their efforts.
THE TEAM
The CARICAD Horizon is a regular publication of the
Caribbean Centre for Development Administration
(CARICAD). The Horizon has superseded the â€œChronicleâ€.
The Editor-in-Chief is CARICADâ€™s Executive Director,
Devon Rowe. The Production Team comprises: Franklyn
Michael, Rosemund Warrington, Dr. Lois Parkes, Trudy
Waterman, Angela Eversley and Petra Emmanuel.
Previous editions can be viewed at:
March 2021
October 2020
July-August 2020
Special Hurricane Edition June 2020
Special COVID-19 Edition May 2020
March 2020
December 2019
October 2019
Board Meeting 2019 Special Edition
April 2019
December 2018
August 2018
December 2017
July 2017
The Caribbean Centre for Development Administration
1st Floor Weymouth Corporate Centre, Roebuck Street, Bridgetown, Barbados
Tel: 246-427-8535 Fax: 246-436-1709 Email: caricad@caricad.net Website: www.caricad.net
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