׉?ׁB!בCט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://h7zXGWKGTOw7LVEtuLEFTHtHQTGRFgpHQytcjWopgho `׉	 7cassandra://4_0BJHxBj1u8mrp6bDBVXxRWIXVjhndaDdplMd_mwloͬ`s׉	 7cassandra://k8ZWbhL2DpLiTGU0HqR1bTU3-m2o5LkTyvNOy44j9WE4` ׉	 7cassandra://0KB-5dj6SIzV54qvvwJw14bupaH1k_2ZO64mMBrma-A ,͠]ZM䰉/3<ט   (u׈   CNSvu  נZO䰉/3<́ E̰9ׁHhttp://www.hbaswil.orgׁׁЈ׈EZM䰉/3<׉EH B
OME
UILDERS
A
SSOCIATION
NEWSBRIEF
The Official Newsletter of the Home Builders Association of Greater Southwest IL
To promote, educate and advocate for the Residential Building & Remodeling Industry; providing
resources that benefit industry professionals and consumers in the communities we serve.
March 2018 issue
www.hbaswil.org
First row left to right: Suzie Quinton, HBA Director of Member Services & Events, Beth Jacob 1st Vice President, Jacob Family Enterprises, Sue Schultz - Sandberg Phoenix &
von Gontard, Michelle Null – Benchmark Title, Mindy Shafer – Wells Fargo Home Mortgage
Second row left to right: Jason Huelsmann – New Tradition Homes, Josh McDermott - J.T. McDermott Remodeling Contractors, Joe Knox – Copious Technologies, Jeff Schmidt
- RLP Development, Chris Matteo President – Fulford Homes, Mark Fulford – Fulford Construction, Jerry Yaekel – Yaekel & Associates, Barbara Markham – RE/MAX Preferred
– The Markham Network, David Padgett Immediate Past President – Padgett Building & Remodeling, Coy Mullenix - CMI Construction
Third row left to right: Jon Edler - Henges Interiors, Mark Vogt – Vogt Builders, Ryan Butler - Remington Properties, Mike Rathgeb – Spencer Homes, Art Stumpf – AUTCOhome
Appliances, Tracy Butler – HBA Executive Officer, Aaron Klemme 2nd Vice President- Klemme Construction, Joel Keel – Custom Floors & More, Ron Padgett – Padgett
Building & Remodeling, Ken Diel - Kerber, Eck & Braeckel, John Snapat – Fulford Home Remodeling, Robb Treat – Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp., Bill Ward - HBAI
Executive Vice President, Steve Macaluso - Halloran Construction Not Present: Robert Dee Jr.,– Homes by Deesign and Jason Klein – Ameren Illinois
The first event of 2018 had many HBA members and family
joining the Installation & Industry Awards Banquet. The
evening began with the PAC Government Official Reception
that included Congressmen, State Senators, State
Representatives and Mayors.
Every entry into the Remodeler of Distinction Award was
shown in a video presentation during dinner for all to view the
amazing transformations. Recognition was brought to the PWB
Council as well as Jon Edler with Henges Interiors for awards
won at the recent International Builder Show. 2017 President,
David Padgett presented the Presidential Citations and thanked
everyone for their support of our industry and appreciation for
keeping the HBA strong.
The Lifetime Achievement award is the main surprise of the
evening for one deserving member - Mark Fulford! Then onto
the Installation of our officers and finally, the moment everyone
was waiting for, the Installation of our 2018 President, Chris
Matteo.
We are grateful to all those that continue to support the HBA
and look forward to keeping members involved, informed and
proud to be part of the only local residential building industry
trade association.
Inside this edition you will find more event details and plenty of
pictures to enjoy.
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Pre–Party Event
2
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The emcee for the evening Beth Jacob with Jacob Family Enterprises is shown
above welcoming our attendees, thanking our sponsors and introducing our special
guests.
Our 2017 President David Padgett with Padgett Building & Remodeling recapped
his year with examples of how the HBA is there for you, learning opportunities the
HBA provides and how the HBA helps our elected officials make building friendly
choices. “One of the most satisfying things about being a part of this organization
is seeing how often the HBA is there for its members and the community to help”.
As a token of our appreciation for his outstanding year David received his
Presidential Plaque provided by Benchmark Title Company to retire his gavel on
along with his official NAHB Past President pin.
Remodelers of Distinction Award Winners
Basement Renovation -
J.T. McDermott Remodeling Contractors
Bathroom Renovation -
Fulford Home Remodeling
Exterior Renovation -
Butler Home Improvement
Historic Renovation -
Drake Construction
Judge’s Choice
Addition Renovation - Padgett Building & Remodeling
Director’s Choice
Whole House Renovation -J.T. McDermott Remodeling Contractors
President’s Choice
Kitchen Renovation - Fulford Home Remodeling
4
Structural / Waterproofing Renovation -
Helitech Waterproofing & Foundation Repair
Whole House Renovation -
Padgett Building & Remodeling
׉	 7cassandra://5J318IcyIpYFzSoHlYdAxQsNKTiJuBuR-LYM6m15sRg0$` ZN䰉/3<׉EShore Fishing at
Edwardsville Gun Club
4104 Staunton Rd., Edwardsville - (618) 656-2875
Bring your own live bait and tackle!
$50 Team Entry (two persons/kids welcome)
Includes: Dinner, Drinks and Friendly Competition
12:00 pm - Registration
1:00 pm - Drop your line
4:00 pm - Reel it in
5:00 pm - Awards
Winner Categories:
Total Team Weight $100 hourly
Prizes for Biggest Size:
Bass, Catfish, Bluegill, Crappie
Sponsored by:
Rod & Reel Raffle ($250 value)
1 ticket for $10 or 3 for $25
limited # of tickets sold ~ Winner does not need to present to win
Sponsorships to lure you!
Beverage & Snack Cart Sponsor........$ 250.00
Signage on carts (3 opportunities)
Exclusive Prize Sponsor......$ 200.00
Plaques with your logo to winners
Bait & Hook Sponsor……..........$ 50.00
Signage at the lake
Registration: complete the following information and return it to the HBA office (please print)
___$ 50 Team of two
___$ 250 Beverage & Cart Sponsor
___$ 200 Exclusive Prize Sponsor
___$ 50 Bait & Hook Sponsor
___1 Raffle ticket for $10 ___3 Raffle ticket for $25
$ _______TOTAL DUE
Method of Payment:
___Member Invoice
___Check
___Visa/MasterCard*
*credit card payments will include an additional 4% convenience fee
Credit Card# ___________________________________
Expiration: ______ Signature: ___________________
Company Name: ________________________________________________________________________________
Contact Name: _______________________________ Phone#/Email: __________________________________
Fisherman one (1) ______________________________ Fisherman two (2) ________________________________
HBA Policy: Registration for the Fishing Tournament is
considered confirmation of your participation and will be invoiced
if cancellation is not made within 3 days of the event.
5
Home Builders Association of Greater Southwest Illinois
6100 West Main St., Maryville, IL 62062
Office: (618) 343-6331 - Fax: (618)343-6335
www.hbaswil.org ~ Email: hba@hbaswil.org
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B͠]ZN䰉/3<ט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://yErxYDygh0aRt1EpyLXQ4_Z9zarCfrgSnG_evwgdG-s Ɓ`׉	 7cassandra://jyjTLfZuno5B4DFGRwNXH5rg8BKwpLjNYKiUDDV0q00o`s׉	 7cassandra://PC101p5FHdHsK2wSK4sqCuLs5dN_p78za1cO--4kBQw)` ׉	 7cassandra://W3EKAhi9bTGQKCBkTubUxJRNn3TLTCJT-LPUgH9aM3I 5 ͠]ZN䰉/3<׉E	2018 International Builder Show Awards
2017 Professional Women in Building Council
Chair - Cherity Freeze received the following
awards during the recent NAHB PWB Awards &
Installation of Officers Luncheon:
 Outstanding Innovative Program
 Outstanding Legislative and
Political Action Program
 Council of the Year
(second year in a row)
Along with these awards the council
also received $1,000 to put towards
their scholarship fund!
The NAHB Remodelers created a new award called the
One to Watch. It honors a remodeler member under the
age of 40 who is an advocate for the remodeling industry,
engages with peers , and has embedded themselves as
exceptional members of their
communities.
It is an honor that our very own
Jon Edler with Henges
Interiors won this award!
Congratulations on this award
and thank you for all your
work and dedication to the
industry and for our
organization.
The Mary Schmitt Award for Outstanding Industry Service
Congratulations and thank you for your continued support!
RECOGNITION OF your willingness to step forward
and take on additional responsibilities during difficult
times.
IN APPRECIATION OF your dedication and
commitment to moving the association forward in a
positive way.
IN GRATITUDE FOR your response to the needs of
our industry with an outstanding attitude and
efficiency that has established a professional
standard for all.
Left to Right: Andrea West with Fulford Homes, Brad Spaulding
receiving award for Steve Dill with SLD Enterprises and Sue
Schultz with Sandberg Phoenix & von Gontard
WITH THE ADMIRATION OF your peers who praise
your performance and involvement on multiple
committees, Councils, volunteering and participation
at events.
Lifetime Achievement Award
The Lifetime Achievement Award was presented to Mark Fulford for his
many years of hard work , dedication to the industry, community and the
HBA! Here are just a few of his remarkable achievements:
 Developed and sole builder in over 18 subdivisions constructing well
over 1,500 homes.
 Numerous apartment complexes, custom homes and several retail
establishments.
 President of HBAI and twice for our local HBA
 Created a home remodeling division which has remodeled thousands
of homes.
Thank you to our Lifetime Achievement Award plaque sponsor
Benchmark Title & Co.
6
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8
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Friday,
May 18th
2018
8:00 am
Registration
NILO FARMS
15025 IL-111, Brighton, IL (618) 466-0613
“One of our Nations finest hunting & shooting facilities”
$105 each registration “loaded” with:
100 Rounds of Sporting Clays, Ammo, Drinks, Lunch and
Friendly Competition (Protective eye wear required)
Snack/Soda Cart Sponsor………....…….$250
Signage & opportunity to meet with all shooters
Awards & Contest Sponsor……....…….$250
Logo on awards & run contests to meet shooters
Score Sheet Sponsor…………….......…..$150
Logo on all score sheets
Station Sponsor…………….….……..
…..$100
Company Name on signage at a station
Gun Raffle ($1,000+ value)….……..
…..$20-$50
1 ticket for $20 or 3 for $50 ~ limited # of tickets sold
or $750 cash for the non-shooting enthusiast
Winchester Super - X3, 3.5” Max 5 Camo
Sponsored by
Winner does not need to be present to win
Registration: complete the following information and return it to the HBA office (please print)
___ $105 per Sport Clay Shooter
___ $250 Snack/Soda Station (3 ONLY)
___ $250 Award & Contest Sponsor
___ $150 Score Sheet Sponsor
___ $100 Station Sponsor
___ 1 Raffle Ticket for $20
___ 3 Raffle Tickets for $50
ALL SPONSORS welcome to “man their stations”
and will receive 1 comp lunch.
Contact the HBA to make arrangements
Company Name: _______________________________________
Contact Name: _______________________________________
Phone#/Email: _________________________________________
Number of Shooters (circle one) 1 2 3 4 5 6
Shirt Sizes __ S __ M __ L __ XL __ XXL __ XXXL
(Deadline to guarantee T-Shirt, size must be received by May 1st!)
TOTAL DUE $ _______________
Method of Payment: ___Member Invoice
___Check
___Visa/MasterCard*
*credit card payments will include an additional 4% convenience fee
Credit Card# _________________________________________________
Expiration: ______ Signature: _________________________________
HBA Policy: Registration for the Sport Clay Shoot is
considered confirmation of your participation and
will be invoiced if cancellation is not made within
3 days of the event.
Home Builders Association of Greater Southwest Illinois
6100 West Main St., Maryville, IL 62062
Office: (618) 343-6331 - Fax: (618)343-6335
www.hbaswil.org ~ Email: hba@hbaswil.org
9
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10
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The final ceremony, Installation of the 2018 President, was performed by Mark Fulford to have all
witness the oath and commitment of Chris Matteo as our incoming President. Chris received the
President’s Gavel, provided by Benchmark Title Company, along with the official NAHB Local
President Pin.
Chris’ incoming speech discussed one of the most important things to the HBA - Membership!
Membership has many meanings - it can be business connections, staying current on industry
challenges, opportunities, comradery etc. Overall the HBA is here to improve our businesses and
the lives of everyone we work with. Members mean everything to the HBA, they would not exist
without members, their knowledge, service, time, expertise, connections and so on. If every
member would recruit just one member we would not only double in size but think about the
influence we would have on our industry, on our state and most importantly on our businesses.
“I believe in the HBA and what it stands for and how it helps all of our businesses
and our great industry. Our HBA is one of the largest locals in the state and has one
of the highest retention rates of its members. We need to challenge ourselves in
what can the HBA do for us and what can we do to enhance the influence of the
HBA and therefore our industry as a whole” 2018 HBA President - Chris Matteo
Special thank you to everyone who helped and contributed to making this
wonderful evening possible!
11
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Madison
County, IL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Totals
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
56 59 91 70 90 67 73 54 59 40 45
31 40 61 66 61 40 59 92 51 38 33
14 9 32 25 42 39 39 33 42 34 30
18 29 35 42 34 31 31 31 45 25 29
11 13 26 33 27 33 29 31 20 19 16
14 10 32 27 15 26 20 58 26 22 30
21 24 24 29 23 31 39 37 34 86 15
11 11 16 67 21 11 22 15 27 27 15
10 21 36 32 38 33 35 37 32 25 29
14 19 29 30 40 27 24 25 34 28 14
11 24 28 22 21 19 19 17 32 18 27
34
17
20
21
14
20
18
14
16
10
27
738
589
359
371
272
300
381
257
344
294
265
Monroe
County, IL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Totals
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
21 17 28 25 27 20 22 19 13 23 10
13 10 9 14 11
3 7 10 9
11
11 9 13 15 12
6 13 13
9 14 11
7
8
5 7
7 6
8 8 14 10
2 6 14 13
12 8
12 8
6 11 10 9
7
8 16 10 12 10 8
9 9 16 10 5
9 18 12 9 6
9 8 10 9 5
9 9 10 12 7
13 11 18 10 7
5
7
4
7
8
10 7 16 7 12 8
8 11 11 16 12 17 7 12 5
8 10 18 15 15 10 12 12 11
9 11 10 12 9 21
4
5
3
9
3
5
6
9
8
7
7
229
126
97
130
92
106
120
112
127
138
122
St. Clair
County, IL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Totals
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
93 87 129 98 115 100 90 80 66 70 51
63 60 49 47 76 55 48 40 38 59 23
17 30 38 50 52 62 53 66 38 40 42
50 49 78 86 51 45 65 67 58 42 34
26 41 43 44 52 51 41 43 41 40 27
27 30 47 40 33 46 35 42 27 29 32
30 30 39 40 40 45 30 21 26 31 23
34 24 33 25 49 46 34 33 37 35 23
28 15 42 38 27 34 34 39 34 38 18
32 30 44 30 40 37 27 46 41 29 40
32 27 39 38 29 37 16 22 21 23 28
49
40
55
47
25
26
32
17
24
22
29
1028
598
543
672
474
414
387
390
371
418
341
Top Municipalities
YTD:
108 = Unincorporated
50 = Troy
31 = Edwardsville
23 = Highland
22 = Maryville
Top Municipalities
YTD:
44 = Columbia
43 = Waterloo
35 = Unincorporated
Top Municipalities
YTD:
119 = O'Fallon
73 = Unincorporated
48 = Shiloh
31 = Belleville
30 = Mascoutah
MarketGraphics provides the HBA with these permit reports.
MarketGraphics offers many other housing and subdivision analysis reports.
Contact them today to see how that can be of service to you directly.
Joe Zanola zanola@zanolaco.com 314.918.7200 www.zanolaco.com
12
׉	 7cassandra://oLkA_ecSa5YvB9QioT1ndBajAgboVtKU_2QOtFnY3ZM0Q` ZN䰉/3<׉E13
׉	 7cassandra://hGO4hjLXsmSPV-Uku2eXC4YSoslh2txbzzQHsZ_83jY+i` ZN䰉/3<ZN䰉/3<(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://-kcg497BOCEdgQ55YTo35_cdmRyw89I2VjcsWnxUfLM `׉	 7cassandra://Gaxwlrp3n7ztOzZ0o7g3nZZzhVjaqkk5g5RhsDP7AAE͟`s׉	 7cassandra://NIJhBTlIqo3YNzT8JU1z2OBhDjy_tWrgmQbsdgtoo10/` ׉	 7cassandra://F2gHS22pjUiz8GTxSPKAAJvWjl7QBP-valaNQfoHvEI t j͠]ZO䰉/3<ט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://QnhGgbs7AnXSUhjot9BDi2dB9xq7NHc25NFoo1f8UCE hH`׉	 7cassandra://jZFmCfDs-9Cy7BtoO3c2-oq6CDmd54H3kXM1LHMxG_8ͦ`s׉	 7cassandra://xDGl3cSvn329p82f73ckDbWLUuiW1tqxfjPPMmRI54Y-` ׉	 7cassandra://vWJ1CqR04M3pnDuW6UiaM_d-xpbT9SrdBTpN-5-dUtQ'<͠]ZO䰉/3<׉E_HBA Members took advantage of our Congressmen being in the district to talk about
current issues (on the next page) facing our industry.
Both Congressmen are very supportive of our industry and have proven so with their Defender of Housing
awards they were given last year.
There were many insightful moments that each shared about the other topics going on at our nations
capitol.
We were also honored to present both Congressmen with contributions that were provided by our NAHB
Build PAC.
From left to right: Mark Fulford with Fulford Construction, Steve
Macaluso with Halloran Construction, Chris Matteo with Fulford Homes,
Dave Tanzyus - Congressman Bost staff, Chuck Daily with Providence
Bank, Tracy Butler with HBA, Congressman Bost, Jeff Schmidt with RP
Lumber and Mark Vogt with Vogt Construction.
From left to right: Kevin Wrigley with Fusion Realty,
Mark Vogt with Vogt Construction, Mark Fulford with
Fulford Construction, Steve Wilke with Wilke Window
& Door, David Padgett with Padgett Building &
Remodeling, Tracy Butler with HBA, Congressman
Shimkus and Chris Matteo with Fulford Homes.
NAHB Achieves Important Advocacy Successes!
Providing value to members is NAHB's primary mission.
The association's advocacy efforts throughout 2017, along
with select other member benefits, will provide members with a
value of $9.44 billion or $7,500 per housing start in 2018.
In 2017, the advocacy team leveraged NAHB's power to get pro
-housing measures passed in Congress, ensure that tax reform
legislation acknowledged the importance of housing and the
needs of small businesses, and challenge regulations that do
more harm than good.
The association also provided numerous other benefits to
members, including discounts on products and services.
Read NAHB's detailed analysis of savings due to the
association's advocacy victories in 2017 as well as select other
programs
14
׉	 7cassandra://NIJhBTlIqo3YNzT8JU1z2OBhDjy_tWrgmQbsdgtoo10/` ZO䰉/3<׉E<Current Policy Issues
At any given time federal regulations are working on dozens of rules that can have significant impacts on the viability and costs of
housing projects around the country. This section looks at just four of those issues—housing finance, resiliency, regulatory reform and
tax policy - with an overview of the challenge and proposed solutions that could benefit small businesses and consumers alike.
Excessive Regulations
Congress must reassert meaningful oversight authority over, and ultimately fix, our broken regulatory rulemaking system. Any overhaul
must acknowledge the disproportionate compliance burden small businesses face. On average, almost 25% of the cost of a new singlefamily
home is due to government regulation - close to $50k
Reasonable regulations are essential to protecting health and safety. However, many regulations are imposed by unelected
bureaucrats who establish laws far beyond Congress’ original intent.
Federal support is particularly important in continuing the availability of the affordable 30-year, fixed rate mortgage that has helped
millions of American families to build wealth and financial security through homeownership.
Housing Finance
Congress needs to move legislation to establish a new secondary market system for conventional mortgages with a limited, well-defined
federal government backstop for catastrophic circumstances.
Almost 10 years after the Great Recession, the nation’s housing market remains far below its potential. The unsettled housing finance
system contributes greatly to the problem.
The key to an effective secondary system for conventional mortgages is a limited federal backstop for catastrophic circumstances.
Leaving government-supported mortgage loans as the only option for qualified buyers.
Federal support is particularly important in continuing the availability of the affordable 30-year, fixed rate mortgage that has helped
millions of American families to build wealth and financial security through homeownership.
Tax Policy
Congress must ensure that mortgage interest deduction remains a meaningful homeownership incentive for middle-class households,
and also that the production of affordable rental housing continues under the Low Income Housing Tax Credit.
While the new law maintains the mortgage interest deduction, it reduces the number of households that will claim the deduction. This
will affect home prices, potentially harming millions of American families. Also important are tax credit programs that encourage
production of housing for low and moderate income households.
Federal Resiliency Requirements
Measures to ensure resilience in communities infrastructure and buildings must be practical, cost effective and based on sound science.
Such efforts should be coordinated between various levels of government, communities and businesses to prevent conflicting or
duplicative requirements. An unusual number of significant Natural disasters in recent years and concerns over climate change have
prompted consideration of resilience at every level of government.
Resilience plans, policies and programs will significantly affect how and where new homes and communities are built and greatly
influence how cities and existing structures are re-engineered, rebuilt and/or remodeled. Retrofitting and improving the existing housing
stock and commercial inventory should be a priority. Newer homes and businesses constructed to more updated code requirements
have proven to be more resilient in recent disasters. State and local communities should have the flexibility to adopt codes that address
their resiliency priorities.
15
׉	 7cassandra://xDGl3cSvn329p82f73ckDbWLUuiW1tqxfjPPMmRI54Y-` ZO䰉/3<ZO䰉/3<(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://D8WWLFHc0BfNWdsZwRvs3OD7OpAoGFaMvqwom0vC_SE %` ׉	 7cassandra://vNoSQBcZD90ac5vnb89g73ePQm29rocxHEWHLmrD9mU͵`s׉	 7cassandra://qb9gnSb0outa1jJulB66jWghZlDDUuDmk5c-Aw8KLt8/T` ׉	 7cassandra://qqgw4lCG5tK4hzeA5cMR0OpR8jckDtkmbJbGzh_q0nE͏W͠]ZO䰉/3<ט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://AwIYfB4j2hsymUayYk_l_stFobJGVL_FUR0hliEc5KA g`׉	 7cassandra://7iq8C2R3z8teUz5OU08NvOV_f2t8vWGCtUdUINDmbmY̓	`s׉	 7cassandra://FTcJWsn_XvLg8YbgrbeOcTUSvgkAyZPc-7FAvHNiqn4'0` ׉	 7cassandra://_sOlIQSUpIhcQAqblpO6zxPsRWOsXt2qr8f1IhcrNSEͫk2͠]ZO䰉/3<נZO䰉/3< ށ9ׁHmailto:mcdardrywall@yahoo.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3< ځ9ׁHhttp://www.troymaryvillecoc.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3< Á9ׁHmailto:ceo@edglenchamber.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3< v̼9ׁHhttp://www.collinsfloors.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3<߁ _9ׁHmailto:lynn@collinsfloors.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3<ށ A̿9ׁHhttp://www.authorizedstl.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3<݁ *̾9ׁHmailto:dan@authorizedstl.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3<܁ 9ׁHhttp://www.troymaryvillecoc.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3<ہ 9ׁH  mailto:dawn@troymaryvillecoc.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3<ځ 9ׁHhttp://www.marksappliance.comׁׁЈנZO䰉/3<ف 9ׁHmailto:mark@marksappliance.comׁׁЈ׉EThe Fed’s Interest Rate Plan
At the start of 2017, the Federal Reserve
anticipated raising interest rates three times and
shrinking its large bond portfolio. Unlike in
2015 and 2016, where the forecasts made by the
Fed were overly optimistic, the 2017 forecast
was spot on. Whether officials at the central
bank can pull off a repeat performance of three
rate hikes in 2018 will very much depend on two
conflicting signals from the two variables that
matter most to the Fed: employment and
inflation.
Solid job gains have pushed the
unemployment rate to just 4.1%
in January, a 17-year low. If the
unemployment rate drops as
much in 2018 as it did in 2017 -- a 0.7
percentage point decline – it would be at a low
last seen in the late 1960s. Yet inflation, despite
some recent rumblings to the contrary, remains
stubbornly soft. Excluding volatile food and
energy, the core inflation rate is just 1.5% -quite
a distance from the Fed’s 2% target, despite
the very low unemployment rate.
Initially, some at the Fed thought the low
inflation rate was due to unusual one-off events
such as declines in the price of cell phone
service, cars, prescription drugs, and surprisingly
weak healthcare and higher education inflation.
However, as the inflation weakness has
persisted, some Fed officials are beginning to
rethink, at least slightly, the belief that employers
bid up wages as workers grow increasingly
scarce. That said, they still fundamentally
believe that once the unemployment rate falls
low enough, wages will rise. It’s just taking
longer than in the past for this to take place.
At this point, there are several scenarios that can
play out. Ideally, employment growth slows a
bit; the unemployment rate falls a bit more but
16
not much; wage inflation starts to rise; and
overall economy-wide inflation strengthens.
This would allow the Fed to continue raising
rates slowly and not surprise markets. There are,
however, several risks to this Goldilocks
outcome.
The unemployment rate could
drop too low too fast and in the
process, ignite inflationary
pressures of all sorts. This
would force the Fed to raise rates quickly,
potentially triggering a recession. Alternatively,
inflation stays low as the Fed slowly raises rates
because the unemployment rate keeps falling. In
this case, inflation is pushed even lower, forcing
the Fed to stop raising rates. In this scenario, the
Fed would have little room to lower rates when
the next recession comes, as they would stop
raising rates earlier than they would have liked.
Luckily, inflation seems to be finally appearing,
and this will allow new Fed Chair Powell to
raise rates in 2018 at a measured pace like
former Fed Chair Yellen. But, as was the case in
2015 and 2016, unforeseen circumstances are
likely to necessitate deviations from the
preferred path. I, for one, wish Powell luck, but
strongly suspect that the economy will be
slightly stronger, and that inflation will rise
faster than expected, necessitating four interest
rate rises -- one more than the Fed currently
expects. No matter what happens, 2018 will be
bumpier than the economically serene and placid
2017.
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D., President
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
Email: Elliot@graphsandlaughs.net
His daily 70 word economics and policy blog
can be seen at www.econ70.com
׉	 7cassandra://qb9gnSb0outa1jJulB66jWghZlDDUuDmk5c-Aw8KLt8/T` ZO䰉/3<׉EFebruary Renewed Members
Cecil Management Group, Inc.
Halloran Construction
Kitchen Craft
Market Place Magazine
McCullough’s Flooring Enterprise
Quality Installation
Providence Bank
Professional Women in Building Council
Benchmark Title Company
First national Bank of Waterloo
Fulford Homes (2)
Garrett E. & Herschel E. Johnson RE & Dev.
Jacob Sunroom & Exteriors
RP Lumber
Wells Fargo
Mark’s Appliance
Mark Bradley
218 1st Avenue
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Phone: (618) 656-9600
Cell: (618) 781-2251
Email: mark@marksappliance.com
Website: www.marksappliance.com
Troy / Maryville / St. Jacob / Marine
Chamber of Commerce
Dawn Mushill
647 E US Hwy 40
Troy, IL 62294
Phone: (618) 667-8769
Cell: (618) 667-8759
Email: dawn@troymaryvillecoc.com
Website: www.troymaryvillecoc.com
17
February 2018 New Members
Authorized Appliance
Dan Haverstick
1650 N. Warson Road
St. Louis, MO 63132
Phone: (314) 429-0972
Cell: (314) 681-4383
Email: dan@authorizedstl.com
Website: www.authorizedstl.com
Collins & Sons Flooring America
Lynn Collins
2431 N. Illinois St.
Swansea, IL 62226
Phone: (618) 234-2915
Cell: (630) 886-5693
Email: lynn@collinsfloors.com
Website: www.collinsfloors.com
Edwardsville | Glen Carbon
Chamber of Commerce
Desiree Bennyhoff
1 North Research Dr.
Edwardsville, Il 62025
Phone: (618) 656-7600
Cell: (618) 267-6991
Email: ceo@edglenchamber.com
Website: www.troymaryvillecoc.com
McDar Drywall, Inc
Curt Darling
340 Sleeping Indian
Freeburg, IL 62243
Phone / Cell: (618) 918-8076
Email: mcdardrywall@yahoo.com
׉	 7cassandra://FTcJWsn_XvLg8YbgrbeOcTUSvgkAyZPc-7FAvHNiqn4'0` ZO䰉/3<ZO䰉/3<(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://3R9DRpYHYOBwmm5nefa2uRASiWqn4uSZwJGeC2H05Xw `׉	 7cassandra://lyLrDTmX1r8seCM-MYCIii1cdazb2JcceOXIevpFt0oc0`s׉	 7cassandra://3NNcqIXfxt2I9O1KTKfuO6hPF9G41PpV_1tzo0IX3Qo#1` ׉	 7cassandra://WUzKbFWR9X9K8bhkVB1i0398LIzHh0JHXk5If3Nlvrw ď͠]ZO䰉/3<ט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://83gjqaSoARfF4Soe-k1OMyY_12MXY7z7B7uckt55SgY ,`׉	 7cassandra://k1mES5gQZN3HTi-pIsK1m5DDLUuYOrZKiXcb5cJUcfAͱi`s׉	 7cassandra://NfKE8qCjRggVq7tSWiQhJF9HUnvh-GcfC_OfGb3t2bs4` ׉	 7cassandra://w5eo_zWeaSnZGRd00NLXOHS9bjsIDSHY8is1ovRkqP4 O{͠]ZO䰉/3<נZO䰉/3<Ё ̒9ׁHhttp://nahb.org/maׁׁЈ׉E @Visit nahb.org/ma to view complete list of member advantages
18
׉	 7cassandra://3NNcqIXfxt2I9O1KTKfuO6hPF9G41PpV_1tzo0IX3Qo#1` ZO䰉/3<׉Eo2018 HBA Home Show Corporate Sponsors
OFFICERS
President, Chris Matteo - Fulford Homes, LLC
1st Vice President, Beth Jacob -
Jacob Family Enterprises
2nd Vice President, Aaron Klemme -
Klemme Construction
Southwest Illinois
Housing Advancement Fund
2018 Home Builders Association
Platinum Annual Sponsors
Secretary, Jerry Yaekel, Jr. -
Yaekel & Associates, Inc.
Treasurer, Ken Diel - Kerber, Eck & Braeckel, LLP
Immediate Past President, Dave Padgett -
Padgett Building & Remodeling Co., Inc.
DIRECTORS
Jason Klein - Ameren Illinois
Art Stumpf- AUTCOhome Appliances
Michelle Null - Benchmark Title Company
Coy Mullenix - CMI Construction
Joe Knox - Copious Technologies
Joel Keel - Custom Floors & More
Robb Treat - Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp.
Mark Fulford - Fulford Construction
2018 HBA Gold Annual Sponsors
2018 HBA Silver Annual Sponsors
John Snapat, CAPS, CGR -
Fulford Home Remodeling
Steve Macaluso - Halloran Construction
Jon Edler - Henges Interiors
Robert Dee Jr. - Homes by Deesign
Josh McDermott -
J.T. McDermott Remodeling Contractors
Jason Huelsmann - New Tradition Homes
Ron Padgett - Padgett Building & Remodeling
Barbara Markham -
RE/MAX Preferred, The Markham Network
Ryan Butler - Remington Properties
Jeff Schmidt - RLP Development
Sue Schultz -
Sandberg Phoenix & von Gontard P.C.
Mike Rathgeb - Spencer Homes
Mark Vogt - Vogt Builders, Inc.
2018 HBA Bronze Annual Sponsors
ADVISORY DIRECTORS
Chris Jones - C.A. Jones
Garrett Johnson -
Garrett E. & Herschel E. Johnson R.E. & Dev.
Scott Jacob - Jacob Sunroom & Exteriors
Bruce Riedel - RLP Development
Associate Vice President, Mindy Shafer -
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage
׉	 7cassandra://NfKE8qCjRggVq7tSWiQhJF9HUnvh-GcfC_OfGb3t2bs4` ZO䰉/3<ZO䰉/3<(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://PhO869jmvrhi0SvmsPvQA7La9Ic3UrMnriSqa1rS9yc .`׉	 7cassandra://pnSASaIIwp-OiqCSEwEgazc9C4B0NgMTqQVjYTi-DMUDk`s׉	 7cassandra://Q7TZek13c9c38oW8yNa8a8YnVK5MWcemHnifdl0BgXk` ׉	 7cassandra://0p7cv1r039Ccw_lOWTn8NsjW3gAn7KLYuK9xxr-YYY4 e	͠]ZO䰉/3<נZO䰉/3<ρ <9ׁHhttp://WWW.HBASWIL.ORGׁׁЈנZO䰉/3<΁ x΁̍9ׁHmailto:hba@hbaswil.orgׁׁЈ׉E 6100 West Main Street
Maryville, IL 62062-6688
Office (618) 343-6331
Fax: (618) 343-6335
Email: hba@hbaswil.org
WWW.HBASWIL.ORG
׉	 7cassandra://Q7TZek13c9c38oW8yNa8a8YnVK5MWcemHnifdl0BgXk` ZO䰉/3<׈EZO䰉/3<ZO䰉/3<(,Newsbrief March 2018ZD7A