׉?ׁB!בCט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://SGDVqK0PUhGe_f0Iy2ytqtWqwptwkabgPgYLvplya-k `׉	 7cassandra://cfcpglhKczjb_g_4lsORRb26jD4ls9fsb3tVRS8lGP4͆`s׉	 7cassandra://RsKCEZ_qnvk7MfPF1lehAK59CIg6u7C2MUyAKXXvKNw+)` ׉	 7cassandra://_YuuX02YqNhlRt5cpqDK_Jtcd65_e4foBySpZONh3J8 ͠]]Ț䰴fGmט   (u׈   CNSvu  ׈E]ș䰴fGm׉E"OCTOBER 2019
NEWSLETTER
To promote, educate and advocate for the Residential Building & Remodeling Industry; providing resources that
benefit industry professionals and consumers in the communities we serve.
Our Congressmen gave us great detail on the issues at hand
during our Political Party Time event including insight as to why
the NGA didn’t come to our territory. Both Congressmen are
with us 100% on all industry issues; workforce, housing finance
reform, energy codes, mailbox clusters and housing affordability.
Updates were also shared on border security, gun control,
respect for law enforcement and the 2020 elections.
Pictured (left to right): Congressman John Shimkus, HBR President Beth
Jacob, Congressman Mike Bost and HBR PAC Chair Steve Macaluso.
WHATS INSIDE
201
Upcoming Event Registrations
Oct 3 - Social Fiesta
Oct 16 - Home Show Exhibitor Luncheon
Nov 7 - Tropical Trivia Night
Nov 14 - Go Kart & Bowling Event
Dec 12 - Christmas Party
PWB Members with Mayor Jim Vernier of Shiloh
Review of recent Events
Political Party Time
Par Tee Golf Outing
Lunch with Shiloh Mayor Vernier
Membership Updates & Incentives
Membership Directory Advertising Rates
The Bow Tie Economist
- What will cause the next Ression
Local Workforce Development
Annual Sponsorship Registration
Page 1
׉	 7cassandra://RsKCEZ_qnvk7MfPF1lehAK59CIg6u7C2MUyAKXXvKNw+)` ]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://UpP0px-q5ayIb3kNUiibn6ZtP4x7xw_rQLJ0bwcizO0 y`׉	 7cassandra://naxrlAk4ms1Qdi4RhH61CxvFdeHZIdjvUjqFi9cg8gA͑`s׉	 7cassandra://VpXVPKL2RWubU8XQ26fnwXUc7g81wBqK_4iz0K2PyQM5#` ׉	 7cassandra://9fAbYY7VUyePVaCj78aiSw_bmWpbNxZSvBtdw2yza5g *͠]]Ț䰴fGmט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://FvQg4_hpWgk6Kg6kfXAXA3iB9X2ykUBJXe5Pyegcfrk `׉	 7cassandra://oxGzrukb5oa7XGFyA9XIwJtT0wmWVkQ8LWlbMiSxeXEz`s׉	 7cassandra://FpMrCeS-K7asfdBk-_Zt_QrVBjcPqm9iGFgTRuSYYMQ*` ׉	 7cassandra://D2FuuwWbzKA4yCx3DR9FgeLN4gm-E_hrYyEifDMfrqo P͠]]Ț䰴fGm׉E׉	 7cassandra://VpXVPKL2RWubU8XQ26fnwXUc7g81wBqK_4iz0K2PyQM5#` ]ș䰴fGm׉EPage 3
׉	 7cassandra://FpMrCeS-K7asfdBk-_Zt_QrVBjcPqm9iGFgTRuSYYMQ*` ]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://dLFz_Jd2IKAgdEVCscLvtfCaEu1JxcY3vRLJTCr3H7Y O`׉	 7cassandra://lJwlp0f9uNVKmSohXOEv-8r50BLXS5pdPPVWZ6Sx1m0ͧ-`s׉	 7cassandra://ef-nodJMaHHjUKL4MS1yNzHS9OA6eIQg_bg_gF2ppEA8` ׉	 7cassandra://NkC6Iy3lTj47glWJLHUmm6XSh3QXSc7jNIbj7oZL9M4 e͠]]Ț䰴fGmט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://912fwKnqfODwuKZv5a3HyA6GcpAxFk2K1eGMkCrljK8 O`׉	 7cassandra://Gf9bXhe1m2RldK2xYjMfGb7PZYKAtUp90P75252cUo8͌^`s׉	 7cassandra://piV28Vt_k8-2xIJhvRcpXs6dz-hSagToBFCNysM5jVY1` ׉	 7cassandra://G1WmaEdMBI6AWhCDIZfmL7u3VJE2rH0B-oiEX_2DX4I ͠]]Ț䰴fGm׉EPage 4
׉	 7cassandra://ef-nodJMaHHjUKL4MS1yNzHS9OA6eIQg_bg_gF2ppEA8` ]ș䰴fGm׉EPage 5
׉	 7cassandra://piV28Vt_k8-2xIJhvRcpXs6dz-hSagToBFCNysM5jVY1` ]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://cbfoqmrONgDC9x6xuStI8_2HxNlMmp7z966O4YVyPYk `׉	 7cassandra://ZGPrV1a6u7rIL1B00MGYHC6rpChpw1HXhklXZPZfzFEͶ`s׉	 7cassandra://WHv54CqGvG2XC9L5Syi9fXTdyS6z7-2gLVPMcxQpNek/` ׉	 7cassandra://_-STSHtcjnxot6IZL65gOXedQEGmYCaYs2h7-XwJ08o͑͠]]ț䰴fGmט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://AazbiX424m6xP5khHT9hgsbOkgaS1D7UPJAmP6rXNhk `׉	 7cassandra://2mWsfoSudD-XMLeDs4XI6dN8QLS04y-WBqXOued1WZk͇`s׉	 7cassandra://nVgs24FVI7pZOm8UDeNl6jQLPFxLi9rRcDBW0gEhZhc.U` ׉	 7cassandra://pp4_f92T-Hd_kv3e6qnkjtlXvmsyzBRpo8sZ8ygNjnM qM͠]]ț䰴fGm׉E:What Will Cause the Next Ression?
The Great Recession of 2008 is firmly in the rearview
mirror, we are now enjoying the longest recovery in US
history, the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low,
wage growth is pretty good, inflation is virtually nonexistent,
and the stock market is just a few percentage
points off its all-time high. Yet, talk of recession is increasingly
common. And it’s not surprising, given the
weakening global economy, the decline in exports, the
soft energy and transportation sectors, the ailing agricultural
markets, and of course, the overarching USSino
trade/currency/tech war. That said, while the next
recession may well not arrive till 2021, it is not entirely
clear what will cause it.
In general, recessions are caused by one of three things.
Often, central banks raise interest rates too much in an
effort to slow the economy to reduce late cycle inflationary
pressures. In the process, they either raise
rates too much or keep them too high for too long, driving
the economy into a recession. A second reason we
have recessions is due to unforeseen shocks to the
economy. It might be a war or a sudden rise in energy
or food prices which reduces household spending power
and can cause widespread obsolescence of capital
equipment because the higher price of energy makes
the equipment uneconomical. A third cause, and one
that has recently been the culprit is financial excesses
(think bubbles) that result from overexuberance on the
part of markets that lead to mispricing of assets and
finally a financial crisis.
The 1973 recession was caused by a quadrupling of oil
prices by OPEC. Overnight, oil went from $3/bbl to
$12/bbl. Moreover, the supply of oil was severely restricted,
which led to gasoline rationing and long lines
at gas stations. This caused consumer spending to
plummet and factories to close, crushing the economy.
The recessions of 1979 and 1982 were deliberately engineered
by the Fed and its then chairman, Paul Volker.
The only way to squeeze inflation, which was north of
13% at the time, out of the economy was to induce a
recession. In 2001, it was the tech bubble, and in 2008
the recession was caused by the housing bubble.
But the 1990 recession was different; it had no singular
cause. On one hand, it was a result of a commercial
real estate bust partly caused by the S&L crisis, which in
turn led to a severe drop in construction activity. But
there was also a major rise in energy prices, due to
Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, which hurt consumer confidence
and spending. In addition, there was the postCold
War drawdown in defense spending which led to a
rise in unemployment. While none of these events in
isolation would have precipitated a recession, collectively
they did. Fortunately, it was short and shallow,
but the recovery was slow and jobless.
As for what’s to come, I suspect the next recession will
be caused by a confluence of factors. The trade war is
already hurting GDP growth. Add to that a global slowdown,
a decline in energy prices, a weakening transportation
sector, feeble manufacturing activity, Brexit and
other European problems, largely impotent monetary
policy as rates are already very low, and if all this leads
to one or two negative monthly job reports which, in
turn, leads to weakening consumer confidence and
spending, you probably have the beginnings of a recession.
Regrettably, getting out of the next recession may
take longer than usual because fiscal policy is already a
spent force as we are already running historically very
large deficits. And that means a much-reduced willingness
on the part of Congress to cut taxes and boost
spending.
The good news, the coming recession is not likely to be
very deep as there are no obvious bubbles that must be
punctured. And lastly, with a bit of luck, this recovery
can keep on going for another few years; it is entirely
possible.
Page 6
׉	 7cassandra://WHv54CqGvG2XC9L5Syi9fXTdyS6z7-2gLVPMcxQpNek/` ]ș䰴fGm׉EPage 7
׉	 7cassandra://nVgs24FVI7pZOm8UDeNl6jQLPFxLi9rRcDBW0gEhZhc.U` ]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://968Jke-iYsxHBnHRt8NDiHZBRD9rgiEFxjeMvgcAR8Q `׉	 7cassandra://t0_sw4daSwwv2TCaUfrtiqEZgxBD30Ygfx_tJBezzK8͓`s׉	 7cassandra://sMPHHQ7COKSWWID8o3vP9JyRSrBd4chrMZ-J36Wcgg0/I` ׉	 7cassandra://bbL65IUn8yjFjUCasK2f8u6lwY1Ce_cejLWcxCNA-oU ۦ͠]]ț䰴fGmט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://U9cYq80wZNUca_VDNuLC-gazfRt6_O3ye0IgGZXuIzQ ]`׉	 7cassandra://UjsYW-PjsvOVRe_MNQ5A9e0f01KUyfjNWTSCOGZcBjQj"`s׉	 7cassandra://drAxWZ4xGVMs-AfSRZ7vmEfYcxOLpzNBfIUa6BNScns$` ׉	 7cassandra://Mck6O_pyozLrHxmv_frOlj9-J-vKvWHMzs-bNzTSlRg .B͠]]ț䰴fGm׉EPage 8
׉	 7cassandra://sMPHHQ7COKSWWID8o3vP9JyRSrBd4chrMZ-J36Wcgg0/I` ]ș䰴fGm׉EPage 9
׉	 7cassandra://drAxWZ4xGVMs-AfSRZ7vmEfYcxOLpzNBfIUa6BNScns$` ]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://e20w1UHIN8WCu9KWmRxYTa1fsZZPRxMnbm1J1phvFTo >`׉	 7cassandra://tGSHGboe_yesjxM1DxrzcAXFml8gIa4RsnHGuJ9OLkY͌`s׉	 7cassandra://Bm2I63PVxp1d131e4tnJaM-q1oyL6JCMY3BxAfErzPU1` ׉	 7cassandra://nbWjP782eW3cUY35I0NlCr6LcyEXLSIkrbtzr0mxEKY ͠]]ț䰴fGmט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://YKE6tyHiaKdJtGuKVCYQZH1LruIlRg22zlx6ZE-H_3Y 3`׉	 7cassandra://d5hYMBBA2TZo8XWH8rgA8gLNOYatYTLXzo7vVnCqSU0e`s׉	 7cassandra://nMxL06tmO6U06BONu4_6z72uCrhWaSkkY_wDY_Hi94o$	` ׉	 7cassandra://s3Q6_AKg8Wjqe4aDxuX1FoKCjHq2I57gZwN9rEfwM90 R\͠]]ț䰴fGmנ]ț䰴fGm" JS39ׁH &mailto:ronda@leadershipcouncilswil.comׁׁЈנ]ț䰴fGm! d/9ׁHmailto:magdichaaron@yahoo.comׁׁЈ׉EPage 10
׉	 7cassandra://Bm2I63PVxp1d131e4tnJaM-q1oyL6JCMY3BxAfErzPU1` ]ș䰴fGm ׉ERENEWING MEMBERS
NEW MEMBERS
CA Jones, Inc. - 24 years
D&F Home Builders - 20 years
Eagle Flooring - 6 years
Forshaw of Illinois - 13 years
Tyler Painting & Drywall - 1 year
Aaron’s Concrete
Aaron Magdich
5435 Hickory Ridge Rd
Pomona, IL 62975
O: (618) 789-0554
magdichaaron@yahoo.com
Leadership Council Southwestern Illinois
Ronda Sauget
104 Magnolia Dr., Ste B
Glen Carbon, IL 62034
O: (618) 692-9745
ronda@leadershipcouncilswil.com
Page 11
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׉	 7cassandra://DTDjtVxF-lByAkslgl-voC4oHB_ApTUUncEwDrq44iQ*1` ]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://rUBXkOt4dJht3pRP6AA1LTTtJlPXvgYcvH6XZy0Edgw `׉	 7cassandra://OtFGEDg4aHDp4rIedYN8GcNiUp_A5Cst3sAxPrClIdQx]`s׉	 7cassandra://4vbxs2TWASvMAzvwkAlIAlCRM8WZP6r4P5IgzRUN_nY'` ׉	 7cassandra://kTgZ97JPE6kFPZNX7GgKvP8KMJgA5Jnh61dNoVbwitc >3͠]]ț䰴fGm&ט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://0rlTvh_C-Z2LOUD_v_LypTifA9Z_7Q6yKYdm1MEgZJc `׉	 7cassandra://RWI-l6RQKu4u8nXR35pAEkaAnS7ANHHTtStUhGWyti4t_`s׉	 7cassandra://6wN9FSYGOHvElXvOQAb-iiCwJHxMad5CWyivX0k8rqs(` ׉	 7cassandra://geamBvj-_nkTpRx8l8HNBM1bpZ6wQE4XrdzYgophab0 .͠]]ț䰴fGm'׉EPage 14
׉	 7cassandra://4vbxs2TWASvMAzvwkAlIAlCRM8WZP6r4P5IgzRUN_nY'` ]ș䰴fGm׉EPage 15
׉	 7cassandra://6wN9FSYGOHvElXvOQAb-iiCwJHxMad5CWyivX0k8rqs(` ]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://KnsfxcTV6XgLwBvkD88lBB9qewnk1O6-SKls3nHPI6c `׉	 7cassandra://5IoiaVo3tZajEPbQQYSORxD5NUPX4prxnoEnYb-MHlo͜`s׉	 7cassandra://Hytoak31XyPCr_EBHjvGwPaZxAV6L7TwAE-9iTdAF_Q)` ׉	 7cassandra://GGn1NJMtZ-PrKr9qtnCmpcI6IZ5wG8IGXZRQY0XnluAͮ͠]]ț䰴fGm.ט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://v0rbPuc-G7VNuJTYYQ8BH92ePW0G2mCzI3-2U6rqiqU `׉	 7cassandra://ymZOa2MrEZNiuPJIndHpFVVilvKV2piqOxdRNG4sQQ8o7`s׉	 7cassandra://nyG6yg5cN1SQvzLvH8BaDHe1fdI4yZrPu7pnFMkDocc$` ׉	 7cassandra://xelLpDpibBsLzz-KQ45Qp-IZ9ByhDrT8j-cRQ0EFHWI }̰͠]]ț䰴fGm/נ]ț䰴fGm) A9i(9׉H ]https://www.xyzuniversity.com/5-ways-youll-have-better-luck-recruiting-gen-z-into-the-trades/Gׁׁrנ]ț䰴fGm* >9׉H |https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/04/26/npr-high-paying-trade-jobs-sit-empty-while-high-school-grads-line-up-for-universityGׁׁrנ]ț䰴fGm+ с79׉H Chttps://xyzuniversity.com/research-papers/ready-or-not-here-comes-zGׁׁrנ]ț䰴fGm, )̎9׉H Chttps://xyzuniversity.com/research-papers/ready-or-not-here-comes-zGׁׁrנ]ț䰴fGm- dt9׉H Chttps://xyzuniversity.com/research-papers/ready-or-not-here-comes-zGׁׁrנ]Ȝ䰴fGm2 {C9ׁHmailto:tbutler@hbaswil.orgׁׁЈ׉E5 Ways You’ll Have Better Luck Recruiting Gen Z into the Trades
By Josh Miller, XYZ University
We are witnessing one of the biggest shifts in human
capital in history. This has forced companies and
collective industries to completely regroup and reevaluate
strategy on how to recruit, retain, and, perhaps most
importantly, engage the next generation of talent.
The skilled trades are undoubtedly one of the foremost
examples of this crisis, as this recent NPR story noted, and
struggles to engage Millennials, since according to XYZ
University data, 64% of Millennials said they wouldn’t
even consider working in construction if you paid them
$100,000 or more.
Let’s look at construction. The industry is projected to
lose 1.1 million workers to retirement by 2024. The
industry has recognized a growing, urgent need for
succession planning, workforce development, and
engagement among young professionals.
One way to combat this trend of retirements and labor
shortages is to effectively engage the generation after Gen
Y. Generation Z, born 1996 – 2009, is perhaps the best
hope to breathe oxygen back into the skilled trades and
reverse the trend of labor shortages and declining interest.
There is a way to entice Gen Z into entering the skilled
trades and it starts with perception. Our most recent Gen Z
research findings discovered that 84% of students plan to
attend college. This tells us that many in Gen Z have the
perception that going to a traditional university is a more
stable route and will lead to more success in the long term.
To combat this trend, skilled-trades jobs need to be
portrayed as a worthy alternative to college that will lead
to an enriching and well-paying career.
Another finding the paper turned up was the most
important thing to Gen Z in a job is salary. We are a very
money-driven generation which can be attributed to the
fact that we grew up during the recession. Sixty-six
percent of us said that we value a job with financial
stability over one we enjoy, which is a drastic change
from Millennials and shows that we will look to the trades
as a career option simply due to the financial opportunity.
But, to pique the interest of Gen Z into the trades, it is
important to emphasize the ‘high-paying’ aspect of jobs in
the trades.
We also need to be provided with opportunities for
mentorships and paid apprenticeships; many of which
were rolled back because of the recession and need to be
expanded to suit the young labor market.
It’s also important to utilize recruitment strategies to
identify young workers as early in our careers as possible.
And early no longer means college, but rather high school,
and even middle school to some extent. The opportunity to
do this is more prevalent than ever due to the growth of
STEM programs and the trend of Gen Zs being farther
along our career path than previous generations at this
stage in our young lives. Take note, XYZ U has found
only 3% of Gen Zs say that they haven’t given any
thought to their career choice.
Another important trait to consider when recruiting Gen Z
into the skilled trades is our tendency to become
entrepreneurs. In our research, we discovered that 58% of
Gen Zs want to start a business someday and that 14%
already have. Careers in the trades can offer us a path to
reach that goal. After the apprenticeship and skill
development period, leadership development and
succession planning can begin, while association
leadership can offer business development for younger
members.
Knowing and doing these five things about Generation Z
can help attract us into the trades easier.
• Change the perception and portray it as a worthy career
choice.
•Emphasize the ‘high-paying’ salaries available as Zs seek
financial security over job enjoyment.
•Offer mentorships and apprenticeships.
•Introduce and recruit early in primary schooling as
students explore career choices.
•Highlight the entrepreneurial aspects of the trades.
Download “Ready or Not – Here Comes Z”, XYZ
University’s latest white paper on Generation Z which
analyzes workplace shifts likely to occur and tips on what
your organization should be doing to prepare for Gen Zs
arrival into the workforce.
Page 16
׉	 7cassandra://Hytoak31XyPCr_EBHjvGwPaZxAV6L7TwAE-9iTdAF_Q)` ]ș䰴fGm׉EThe HB&R has officially formed a WorkForce
Committee to inspire people to pursue careers in the
skilled trades and raise awareness about the
opportunities in the construction industry.
If you or an employee is interested in being part of this
committee please contact the HB&R office at
618.343.6331 or email tbutler@hbaswil.org
What the HB&R will be doing to help build the WorkForce in our industry:
• Partner with local proven programs that are in front of parents, teachers and
students by creating a presentation for our members to speak at local schools about
the benefits our industry offers.
• Create a website based outreach for our members to post job openings and for those
seeking jobs to post their resume/interest in employment.
Page 17
׉	 7cassandra://nyG6yg5cN1SQvzLvH8BaDHe1fdI4yZrPu7pnFMkDocc$` ]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://WsMtLBFjTsRQrxEuR-Rmmr1OEtcmQxK2q6hDIF4RiGI `׉	 7cassandra://LdyzrVpPcm_FdIdghaOfI0ZVopGFrA88-97O1yDEx1k|D`s׉	 7cassandra://22ZMWOX2nnsnMiMG5pldudvb-t4_L264H-51ECRHqu0)` ׉	 7cassandra://R9w-S5leMIbDRRRjX7lQplKK4zbJgwuW8a7K8uP89II O͠]]Ȝ䰴fGm1ט  (u׉׉	 7cassandra://WNxtWof93S795YjlwLAm14_e2K3nl8gc8uNV-keQ2qY w`׉	 7cassandra://No5GZ_2p0Zgl6ASyu7ZIptWZcEmHTYn4vEoL5NsYZxQ́`s׉	 7cassandra://CShxv-AVsUlXImELlyuul6Rw-QbfiSCzqEuKDSnQ578+` ׉	 7cassandra://ku9dHLC-8-TjgpR9YjeiU1PBNqeEl7AX4PZ1hAU4pYk )͠]]Ȝ䰴fGm3׉EPage 18
׉	 7cassandra://22ZMWOX2nnsnMiMG5pldudvb-t4_L264H-51ECRHqu0)` ]ș䰴fGm׉EPage 19
׉	 7cassandra://CShxv-AVsUlXImELlyuul6Rw-QbfiSCzqEuKDSnQ578+` ]ș䰴fGm	]ș䰴fGm(בCט   (u׉׉	 7cassandra://I_4urhTfnb6Ui49467vj7Mnma0-gcY1c9OuQWTksjMg P`׉	 7cassandra://ldtemPlt9FQzS9lR7kCi0lDyKmIRpNfphdQgK9ZkEjYD.`s׉	 7cassandra://MEuVL_CZzWbGpTRi0aUjAPh8ZiiYPwCY0JEW86lyve4` ׉	 7cassandra://nJIjpp8BiBYggOzIREvWMilZBnHlhZPEl99ETWgWUvc=X͠]]Ȝ䰴fGm6נ]Ȝ䰴fGm9 ORw9ׁHhttp://www.hbrmea.orgׁׁЈנ]Ȝ䰴fGm8 Y<̌9ׁHmailto:tbutler@hbaswil.orgׁׁЈ׉E v6100 West Main Street
Maryville, IL 62062
Phone: 618-343-6331
E-mail: tbutler@hbaswil.org
Web: www.hbrmea.org
Page 20
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׈E]ș䰴fGm]ș䰴fGm
(,HBR Newsletter - Oct 2019]Ȋ`Y7